Preseason Rankings
Utah St.
Mountain West
2022-23
Overall
Predictive Rating+8.1#76
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace67.3#205
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+3.7#84
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+4.4#69
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.5% 0.6% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 1.4% 1.7% 0.1%
Top 4 Seed 4.3% 5.1% 0.4%
Top 6 Seed 8.0% 9.4% 1.1%
NCAA Tourney Bid 30.1% 33.8% 11.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 21.2% 24.4% 5.8%
Average Seed 8.6 8.5 10.7
.500 or above 82.3% 87.0% 58.4%
.500 or above in Conference 71.9% 75.9% 51.7%
Conference Champion 13.9% 15.7% 4.7%
Last Place in Conference 2.7% 2.0% 6.4%
First Four5.0% 5.5% 2.7%
First Round27.5% 30.9% 10.1%
Second Round14.0% 16.1% 3.3%
Sweet Sixteen5.5% 6.4% 0.9%
Elite Eight2.2% 2.5% 0.4%
Final Four0.9% 1.0% 0.1%
Championship Game0.3% 0.3% 0.0%
National Champion0.1% 0.1% 0.0%

Next Game: Utah Valley (Home) - 83.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b1 - 21 - 3
Quad 23 - 34 - 6
Quad 37 - 311 - 9
Quad 47 - 118 - 10


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 07, 2022 156   Utah Valley W 73-63 83%    
  Nov 11, 2022 117   Bradley W 73-66 75%    
  Nov 14, 2022 127   Santa Clara W 79-71 76%    
  Nov 17, 2022 176   @ San Diego W 70-65 68%    
  Nov 22, 2022 122   Oral Roberts W 82-74 74%    
  Dec 01, 2022 253   Utah Tech W 69-54 90%    
  Dec 04, 2022 83   San Francisco W 73-72 53%    
  Dec 10, 2022 155   Loyola Marymount W 74-67 72%    
  Dec 19, 2022 208   Weber St. W 80-67 85%    
  Dec 22, 2022 173   Seattle W 76-68 75%    
  Dec 31, 2022 99   Fresno St. W 66-60 68%    
  Jan 03, 2023 231   @ Air Force W 68-60 74%    
  Jan 07, 2023 77   @ Boise St. L 65-68 41%    
  Jan 10, 2023 62   Wyoming W 71-69 56%    
  Jan 13, 2023 126   @ Nevada W 76-74 56%    
  Jan 17, 2023 105   UNLV W 71-65 69%    
  Jan 21, 2023 210   San Jose St. W 75-62 84%    
  Jan 25, 2023 23   @ San Diego St. L 61-70 24%    
  Jan 28, 2023 99   @ Fresno St. L 62-63 49%    
  Feb 01, 2023 110   New Mexico W 80-73 71%    
  Feb 04, 2023 78   @ Colorado St. L 68-71 42%    
  Feb 08, 2023 23   San Diego St. L 64-67 41%    
  Feb 11, 2023 210   @ San Jose St. W 72-65 70%    
  Feb 14, 2023 231   Air Force W 71-57 86%    
  Feb 18, 2023 126   Nevada W 79-71 73%    
  Feb 21, 2023 62   @ Wyoming L 68-72 38%    
  Mar 01, 2023 105   @ UNLV W 69-68 51%    
  Mar 04, 2023 77   Boise St. W 68-65 60%    
Projected Record 18 - 10 11 - 7




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Mountain West Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 1.1 2.7 4.1 3.5 1.9 0.5 13.9 1st
2nd 0.0 0.5 2.3 4.8 4.3 2.0 0.4 0.0 14.4 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.8 3.3 5.3 3.4 0.9 0.0 13.8 3rd
4th 0.0 0.8 3.5 5.0 2.6 0.4 0.0 12.3 4th
5th 0.0 0.8 3.3 4.6 2.0 0.3 0.0 11.1 5th
6th 0.0 0.8 3.2 4.0 1.6 0.2 9.8 6th
7th 0.1 0.7 2.7 3.4 1.3 0.1 8.2 7th
8th 0.1 0.7 2.3 2.7 0.9 0.1 6.8 8th
9th 0.1 0.6 1.7 1.7 0.6 0.1 0.0 4.9 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.7 1.2 1.0 0.2 0.0 3.2 10th
11th 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0 1.5 11th
Total 0.1 0.2 0.5 1.2 2.1 3.6 5.0 6.8 8.5 9.5 10.7 11.0 10.7 9.7 7.9 6.1 3.9 1.9 0.5 Total



Mountain West Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.5    0.5
17-1 99.3% 1.9    1.7 0.1
16-2 89.2% 3.5    2.8 0.7 0.0
15-3 67.2% 4.1    2.5 1.4 0.2 0.0
14-4 33.6% 2.7    1.1 1.2 0.4 0.0 0.0
13-5 11.2% 1.1    0.2 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0
12-6 2.0% 0.2    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 13.9% 13.9 8.9 3.9 1.0 0.2 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.5% 100.0% 51.2% 48.8% 2.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
17-1 1.9% 99.2% 39.6% 59.6% 3.5 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 98.7%
16-2 3.9% 95.6% 31.5% 64.0% 5.2 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.7 0.7 0.5 0.4 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 93.5%
15-3 6.1% 88.2% 24.9% 63.3% 7.3 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 0.8 0.7 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.7 84.3%
14-4 7.9% 72.2% 20.2% 52.0% 8.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.7 1.2 1.2 1.0 0.2 0.0 0.0 2.2 65.1%
13-5 9.7% 51.6% 14.5% 37.1% 10.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.8 1.3 1.6 0.5 0.0 4.7 43.4%
12-6 10.7% 31.6% 12.0% 19.5% 10.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.5 0.7 0.1 0.0 7.3 22.2%
11-7 11.0% 17.6% 9.0% 8.6% 11.4 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.8 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.0 9.0 9.4%
10-8 10.7% 10.0% 7.5% 2.5% 12.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 9.6 2.7%
9-9 9.5% 6.4% 6.0% 0.4% 12.9 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 8.9 0.4%
8-10 8.5% 4.6% 4.6% 0.1% 14.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 8.1 0.1%
7-11 6.8% 3.5% 3.5% 15.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 6.6
6-12 5.0% 2.8% 2.8% 15.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 4.9
5-13 3.6% 1.7% 1.7% 15.9 0.0 0.1 3.5
4-14 2.1% 1.0% 1.0% 16.0 0.0 2.1
3-15 1.2% 0.7% 0.7% 16.0 0.0 1.2
2-16 0.5% 0.5
1-17 0.2% 0.2
0-18 0.1% 0.1
Total 100% 30.1% 11.3% 18.8% 8.6 0.5 0.9 1.3 1.6 1.8 1.9 2.0 2.1 3.3 4.3 5.7 2.8 0.8 0.3 0.3 0.4 69.9 21.2%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.3% 100.0% 1.8 48.4 32.9 12.8 4.5 1.4