Preseason Rankings
Stanford
Pac-12
2022-23
Overall
Predictive Rating+9.6#57
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace65.8#247
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+4.4#66
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+5.2#50
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.2% 0.2% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.9% 1.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 2.3% 2.5% 0.1%
Top 4 Seed 7.1% 7.6% 0.7%
Top 6 Seed 13.3% 14.2% 2.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 35.0% 36.8% 10.9%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 30.2% 32.0% 8.0%
Average Seed 7.4 7.4 9.5
.500 or above 66.2% 69.1% 28.2%
.500 or above in Conference 60.4% 62.6% 31.2%
Conference Champion 7.0% 7.5% 1.3%
Last Place in Conference 4.0% 3.4% 11.6%
First Four4.0% 4.2% 2.4%
First Round33.1% 34.9% 10.2%
Second Round19.4% 20.5% 4.3%
Sweet Sixteen8.2% 8.7% 1.4%
Elite Eight3.6% 3.9% 0.3%
Final Four1.5% 1.6% 0.1%
Championship Game0.6% 0.6% 0.1%
National Champion0.2% 0.3% 0.0%

Next Game: Pacific (Home) - 92.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a1 - 41 - 4
Quad 1b2 - 33 - 7
Quad 24 - 37 - 11
Quad 35 - 111 - 12
Quad 45 - 017 - 12


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 07, 2022 228   Pacific W 78-62 93%    
  Nov 11, 2022 41   Wisconsin L 67-68 45%    
  Nov 15, 2022 23   San Diego St. L 64-65 46%    
  Nov 18, 2022 273   Cal Poly W 74-55 95%    
  Nov 24, 2022 58   Mississippi W 67-66 50%    
  Dec 01, 2022 8   UCLA L 66-71 35%    
  Dec 04, 2022 61   @ Arizona St. L 67-70 42%    
  Dec 16, 2022 347   Green Bay W 79-53 98%    
  Dec 18, 2022 9   Texas L 61-68 27%    
  Dec 22, 2022 54   Loyola Chicago L 65-66 49%    
  Dec 29, 2022 59   Colorado W 70-67 59%    
  Dec 31, 2022 84   Utah W 72-66 67%    
  Jan 06, 2023 128   @ California W 66-62 61%    
  Jan 12, 2023 89   @ Washington W 72-71 50%    
  Jan 14, 2023 71   @ Washington St. L 66-68 45%    
  Jan 19, 2023 204   Oregon St. W 78-64 87%    
  Jan 21, 2023 26   Oregon L 71-72 48%    
  Jan 25, 2023 362   Chicago St. W 85-51 99.7%   
  Jan 28, 2023 128   California W 69-59 78%    
  Feb 02, 2023 84   @ Utah L 68-69 48%    
  Feb 05, 2023 59   @ Colorado L 67-70 41%    
  Feb 09, 2023 61   Arizona St. W 70-67 60%    
  Feb 11, 2023 12   Arizona L 75-78 40%    
  Feb 16, 2023 8   @ UCLA L 63-74 21%    
  Feb 18, 2023 37   @ USC L 65-70 34%    
  Feb 23, 2023 71   Washington St. W 69-65 63%    
  Feb 26, 2023 89   Washington W 74-68 68%    
  Mar 02, 2023 204   @ Oregon St. W 75-67 73%    
  Mar 04, 2023 26   @ Oregon L 68-74 30%    
Projected Record 17 - 12 11 - 9




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Pac-12 Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 0.9 1.7 1.9 1.4 0.6 0.2 7.0 1st
2nd 0.0 0.1 0.7 2.1 2.9 2.1 0.9 0.1 0.0 8.9 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.2 1.2 3.1 3.4 1.7 0.5 0.0 10.1 3rd
4th 0.0 0.2 1.7 3.9 3.5 1.5 0.2 0.0 11.1 4th
5th 0.0 0.3 2.0 4.1 3.5 1.1 0.1 0.0 11.0 5th
6th 0.0 0.4 2.1 4.3 3.2 0.8 0.1 10.8 6th
7th 0.0 0.0 0.4 2.3 4.1 2.9 0.7 0.0 10.3 7th
8th 0.0 0.4 2.0 3.6 2.4 0.5 0.0 9.0 8th
9th 0.1 0.5 2.1 3.1 1.7 0.4 0.0 7.9 9th
10th 0.1 0.7 1.8 2.4 1.3 0.3 0.0 6.6 10th
11th 0.0 0.2 0.8 1.6 1.5 0.6 0.1 0.0 4.9 11th
12th 0.1 0.3 0.6 0.7 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0 2.4 12th
Total 0.1 0.3 0.9 1.7 2.8 4.0 5.5 6.9 8.2 9.2 9.9 9.9 9.5 8.5 7.4 5.7 4.3 2.8 1.6 0.6 0.2 Total



Pac-12 Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.2    0.2
19-1 98.4% 0.6    0.6 0.0
18-2 91.0% 1.4    1.2 0.3 0.0
17-3 68.7% 1.9    1.3 0.6 0.1
16-4 39.1% 1.7    0.8 0.7 0.2 0.0
15-5 15.5% 0.9    0.2 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0
14-6 3.3% 0.2    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
13-7 0.3% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 7.0% 7.0 4.2 2.1 0.6 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.2% 100.0% 55.6% 44.4% 1.4 0.1 0.1 0.0 100.0%
19-1 0.6% 100.0% 33.0% 67.0% 1.8 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
18-2 1.6% 100.0% 27.9% 72.1% 2.7 0.3 0.5 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
17-3 2.8% 99.5% 21.5% 78.0% 3.8 0.2 0.4 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.4%
16-4 4.3% 98.0% 16.9% 81.2% 5.1 0.0 0.2 0.6 0.9 0.8 0.7 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 97.6%
15-5 5.7% 92.5% 13.7% 78.9% 6.5 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.9 1.1 0.9 0.7 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.4 91.3%
14-6 7.4% 82.1% 9.9% 72.2% 7.8 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.8 1.2 1.1 0.9 0.8 0.4 0.1 0.0 1.3 80.2%
13-7 8.5% 65.8% 8.6% 57.2% 8.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.7 1.1 1.1 1.1 0.9 0.1 0.0 0.0 2.9 62.6%
12-8 9.5% 43.9% 7.8% 36.1% 9.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 0.8 1.0 1.1 0.3 0.0 0.0 5.3 39.2%
11-9 9.9% 24.3% 5.2% 19.1% 10.4 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.6 0.8 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 7.5 20.1%
10-10 9.9% 10.9% 4.3% 6.6% 11.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 8.8 6.9%
9-11 9.2% 5.4% 3.9% 1.6% 13.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 8.7 1.6%
8-12 8.2% 3.0% 2.8% 0.2% 14.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 8.0 0.2%
7-13 6.9% 2.0% 2.0% 15.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 6.8
6-14 5.5% 1.8% 1.8% 16.0 0.0 0.1 5.4
5-15 4.0% 1.3% 1.3% 16.0 0.0 0.1 4.0
4-16 2.8% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.0 2.8
3-17 1.7% 0.6% 0.6% 16.0 0.0 1.7
2-18 0.9% 0.9
1-19 0.3% 0.3
0-20 0.1% 0.1
Total 100% 35.0% 6.9% 28.1% 7.4 0.9 1.4 2.3 2.5 2.9 3.3 3.7 3.9 3.9 4.1 3.9 1.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.5 65.0 30.2%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.1% 100.0% 1.2 76.5 23.5