Preseason Rankings
Arizona
Pac-12
2022-23
Overall
Predictive Rating+15.9#12
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace79.2#9
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+10.1#6
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+5.8#42
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 2.5% 2.6% 0.1%
#1 Seed 10.1% 10.3% 0.9%
Top 2 Seed 19.8% 20.2% 1.9%
Top 4 Seed 36.5% 37.1% 6.7%
Top 6 Seed 50.3% 51.1% 12.6%
NCAA Tourney Bid 77.4% 78.4% 38.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 72.3% 73.3% 31.8%
Average Seed 5.2 5.2 7.8
.500 or above 95.0% 95.6% 70.2%
.500 or above in Conference 90.1% 90.6% 66.2%
Conference Champion 29.6% 30.1% 10.1%
Last Place in Conference 0.4% 0.3% 2.7%
First Four3.4% 3.4% 3.8%
First Round75.8% 76.7% 36.2%
Second Round57.3% 58.1% 20.9%
Sweet Sixteen33.3% 33.9% 7.8%
Elite Eight18.0% 18.4% 3.1%
Final Four9.3% 9.5% 1.3%
Championship Game4.6% 4.6% 0.8%
National Champion2.2% 2.3% 0.6%

Next Game: Nicholls St. (Home) - 97.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 4 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a2 - 32 - 3
Quad 1b3 - 24 - 5
Quad 25 - 29 - 7
Quad 36 - 115 - 7
Quad 47 - 022 - 7


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 07, 2022 220   Nicholls St. W 92-71 98%    
  Nov 11, 2022 279   Southern W 93-68 99%    
  Nov 17, 2022 253   Utah Tech W 81-58 98%    
  Nov 21, 2022 53   Cincinnati W 82-76 70%    
  Dec 01, 2022 84   @ Utah W 81-75 68%    
  Dec 04, 2022 128   California W 80-64 90%    
  Dec 10, 2022 13   Indiana W 78-77 51%    
  Dec 13, 2022 344   TX A&M Corpus Christi W 96-64 99.5%   
  Dec 17, 2022 10   Tennessee W 78-76 56%    
  Dec 20, 2022 140   Montana St. W 88-71 92%    
  Dec 22, 2022 287   Morgan St. W 97-70 99%    
  Dec 31, 2022 61   @ Arizona St. W 79-75 61%    
  Jan 05, 2023 89   Washington W 87-75 84%    
  Jan 07, 2023 71   Washington St. W 82-71 80%    
  Jan 12, 2023 204   @ Oregon St. W 87-73 87%    
  Jan 14, 2023 26   @ Oregon L 80-81 49%    
  Jan 19, 2023 37   USC W 80-73 71%    
  Jan 21, 2023 8   UCLA W 78-76 56%    
  Jan 26, 2023 71   @ Washington St. W 79-74 64%    
  Jan 28, 2023 89   @ Washington W 84-78 69%    
  Feb 02, 2023 26   Oregon W 84-78 68%    
  Feb 04, 2023 204   Oregon St. W 90-70 95%    
  Feb 09, 2023 128   @ California W 77-67 78%    
  Feb 11, 2023 57   @ Stanford W 78-75 60%    
  Feb 16, 2023 84   Utah W 84-72 82%    
  Feb 18, 2023 59   Colorado W 82-73 77%    
  Feb 25, 2023 61   Arizona St. W 82-72 78%    
  Mar 02, 2023 37   @ USC W 77-76 53%    
  Mar 04, 2023 8   @ UCLA L 75-79 37%    
Projected Record 22 - 7 14 - 6




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Pac-12 Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.5 2.0 4.8 7.4 7.6 5.3 2.0 29.6 1st
2nd 0.0 0.1 1.1 3.5 6.0 5.6 2.9 0.7 0.0 20.1 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.2 1.3 4.0 5.3 3.3 0.8 0.1 15.0 3rd
4th 0.0 0.1 1.2 3.2 3.7 1.8 0.3 0.0 10.4 4th
5th 0.0 0.1 1.0 2.8 2.9 1.0 0.1 0.0 7.9 5th
6th 0.0 0.1 0.8 2.3 2.0 0.6 0.0 5.9 6th
7th 0.0 0.1 0.7 1.6 1.5 0.4 0.0 0.0 4.3 7th
8th 0.0 0.0 0.5 1.1 1.0 0.3 0.0 2.9 8th
9th 0.1 0.3 0.8 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.0 2.0 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.0 1.1 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.6 11th
12th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 12th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.5 1.0 1.7 2.6 3.7 5.2 6.6 8.2 9.9 11.2 11.7 11.3 10.4 8.3 5.3 2.0 Total



Pac-12 Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 2.0    2.0
19-1 99.8% 5.3    5.1 0.2
18-2 91.2% 7.6    6.3 1.2 0.0
17-3 71.3% 7.4    4.8 2.4 0.2
16-4 42.7% 4.8    2.3 2.0 0.5 0.0
15-5 17.4% 2.0    0.6 0.9 0.4 0.1 0.0
14-6 4.4% 0.5    0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0
13-7 0.3% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 29.6% 29.6 21.2 6.9 1.3 0.2 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 2.0% 100.0% 51.0% 49.0% 1.2 1.6 0.4 0.0 0.0 100.0%
19-1 5.3% 100.0% 40.5% 59.5% 1.5 3.3 1.6 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
18-2 8.3% 100.0% 34.9% 65.1% 2.0 3.1 3.0 1.4 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
17-3 10.4% 99.9% 28.7% 71.1% 2.9 1.6 2.9 2.8 1.8 0.8 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.8%
16-4 11.3% 99.7% 21.9% 77.8% 4.1 0.4 1.4 2.4 2.8 2.0 1.1 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.6%
15-5 11.7% 98.0% 17.5% 80.4% 5.5 0.1 0.3 1.2 2.1 2.4 2.0 1.6 1.0 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.2 97.5%
14-6 11.2% 93.5% 15.8% 77.8% 7.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.8 1.4 2.0 2.1 1.6 1.3 0.8 0.3 0.0 0.7 92.3%
13-7 9.9% 82.9% 12.9% 70.0% 8.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.8 1.3 1.6 1.6 1.3 0.7 0.1 0.0 1.7 80.3%
12-8 8.2% 64.5% 9.9% 54.6% 9.2 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.9 1.1 1.4 1.0 0.2 0.0 2.9 60.6%
11-9 6.6% 44.0% 7.7% 36.3% 9.9 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.9 0.8 0.2 0.0 3.7 39.4%
10-10 5.2% 25.7% 7.1% 18.6% 10.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 3.9 20.0%
9-11 3.7% 9.4% 5.4% 4.0% 12.3 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 3.4 4.2%
8-12 2.6% 5.3% 4.4% 1.0% 13.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.4 1.0%
7-13 1.7% 2.7% 2.7% 15.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.6
6-14 1.0% 2.1% 2.1% 15.9 0.0 0.0 1.0
5-15 0.5% 1.9% 1.9% 16.0 0.0 0.5
4-16 0.3% 0.8% 0.8% 16.0 0.0 0.3
3-17 0.1% 0.1
2-18 0.1% 0.1
1-19 0.0% 0.0
0-20 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 77.4% 18.7% 58.8% 5.2 10.1 9.7 8.4 8.2 7.2 6.6 6.3 5.7 5.3 5.1 3.5 0.8 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 22.6 72.3%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 1.2% 100.0% 1.2 84.2 15.6 0.2