Preseason Rankings
California
Pac-12
2022-23
Overall
Predictive Rating+2.9#128
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace62.3#332
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense-0.9#207
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+3.8#82
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.5% 0.6% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 1.3% 1.6% 0.1%
NCAA Tourney Bid 7.6% 9.0% 1.8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 5.9% 7.1% 1.0%
Average Seed 9.4 9.3 11.7
.500 or above 32.5% 37.8% 10.9%
.500 or above in Conference 18.5% 21.4% 6.6%
Conference Champion 0.6% 0.7% 0.1%
Last Place in Conference 22.0% 18.6% 35.9%
First Four1.8% 2.1% 0.8%
First Round6.6% 7.9% 1.4%
Second Round2.8% 3.4% 0.3%
Sweet Sixteen0.9% 1.1% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.3% 0.4% 0.0%
Final Four0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: UC Davis (Home) - 80.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 50 - 5
Quad 1b1 - 41 - 8
Quad 22 - 53 - 13
Quad 34 - 37 - 17
Quad 45 - 112 - 18


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 07, 2022 232   UC Davis W 68-59 80%    
  Nov 11, 2022 68   Kansas St. L 64-66 41%    
  Nov 15, 2022 264   @ UC San Diego W 70-65 68%    
  Nov 18, 2022 279   Southern W 72-60 85%    
  Nov 21, 2022 168   Texas St. W 64-58 69%    
  Nov 26, 2022 19   TCU L 58-69 17%    
  Nov 30, 2022 37   USC L 61-67 31%    
  Dec 04, 2022 12   @ Arizona L 64-80 10%    
  Dec 07, 2022 185   Eastern Washington W 73-67 70%    
  Dec 10, 2022 80   Butler L 61-62 46%    
  Dec 18, 2022 127   @ Santa Clara L 69-72 40%    
  Dec 21, 2022 248   Texas Arlington W 67-57 79%    
  Dec 29, 2022 84   Utah L 65-66 46%    
  Dec 31, 2022 59   Colorado L 63-66 39%    
  Jan 06, 2023 57   Stanford L 62-66 39%    
  Jan 11, 2023 71   @ Washington St. L 60-68 25%    
  Jan 14, 2023 89   @ Washington L 64-71 30%    
  Jan 18, 2023 26   Oregon L 64-71 28%    
  Jan 22, 2023 204   Oregon St. W 70-63 72%    
  Jan 28, 2023 57   @ Stanford L 59-69 22%    
  Feb 02, 2023 59   @ Colorado L 60-69 23%    
  Feb 05, 2023 84   @ Utah L 62-69 29%    
  Feb 09, 2023 12   Arizona L 67-77 22%    
  Feb 11, 2023 61   Arizona St. L 63-66 40%    
  Feb 16, 2023 37   @ USC L 58-70 18%    
  Feb 18, 2023 8   @ UCLA L 56-73 9%    
  Feb 23, 2023 89   Washington L 67-68 48%    
  Feb 25, 2023 71   Washington St. L 63-65 43%    
  Mar 02, 2023 26   @ Oregon L 61-74 15%    
  Mar 04, 2023 204   @ Oregon St. W 67-66 54%    
Projected Record 12 - 18 6 - 14




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Pac-12 Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.6 1st
2nd 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 1.5 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.8 0.6 0.3 0.0 2.3 3rd
4th 0.0 0.2 0.8 1.3 0.9 0.2 0.0 0.0 3.3 4th
5th 0.0 0.2 1.2 1.9 1.1 0.2 0.0 4.6 5th
6th 0.0 0.4 1.7 2.5 1.3 0.2 0.0 6.2 6th
7th 0.0 0.6 2.2 3.3 1.6 0.3 0.0 8.0 7th
8th 0.1 0.8 2.9 4.0 2.0 0.3 0.0 10.1 8th
9th 0.0 0.2 1.4 4.2 4.7 2.2 0.4 0.0 13.1 9th
10th 0.0 0.6 2.8 5.3 4.9 2.0 0.4 0.0 16.1 10th
11th 0.3 2.1 5.1 5.9 4.1 1.4 0.1 0.0 19.1 11th
12th 1.3 3.7 4.6 3.5 1.7 0.4 0.0 0.0 15.1 12th
Total 1.3 3.9 6.7 9.2 10.6 11.3 11.4 10.4 9.1 7.6 5.8 4.5 3.1 2.1 1.4 0.8 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 Total



Pac-12 Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
19-1 88.9% 0.0    0.0
18-2 80.0% 0.1    0.0 0.0
17-3 70.1% 0.1    0.1 0.0
16-4 41.2% 0.2    0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
15-5 15.7% 0.1    0.0 0.1 0.0
14-6 3.4% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
13-7 0.5% 0.0    0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 0.6% 0.6 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.0% 0.0
19-1 0.0% 100.0% 44.4% 55.6% 1.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
18-2 0.1% 100.0% 15.4% 84.6% 3.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
17-3 0.2% 98.7% 12.3% 86.4% 4.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 98.5%
16-4 0.5% 98.3% 10.9% 87.5% 5.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 98.1%
15-5 0.8% 89.8% 10.0% 79.9% 6.8 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 88.7%
14-6 1.4% 79.8% 7.0% 72.8% 8.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.3 78.3%
13-7 2.1% 62.1% 7.4% 54.7% 9.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.8 59.1%
12-8 3.1% 39.3% 5.5% 33.9% 9.9 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.1 0.0 1.9 35.8%
11-9 4.5% 20.8% 4.4% 16.4% 10.5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 3.6 17.2%
10-10 5.8% 10.0% 3.4% 6.6% 11.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 5.2 6.8%
9-11 7.6% 3.5% 2.0% 1.4% 12.2 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 7.4 1.4%
8-12 9.1% 2.3% 2.2% 0.1% 14.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 8.9 0.1%
7-13 10.4% 1.4% 1.4% 15.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 10.2
6-14 11.4% 1.1% 1.1% 16.0 0.0 0.1 11.3
5-15 11.3% 0.7% 0.7% 16.0 0.1 11.2
4-16 10.6% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.0 10.5
3-17 9.2% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 9.2
2-18 6.7% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 6.7
1-19 3.9% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 3.9
0-20 1.3% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 1.3
Total 100% 7.6% 1.8% 5.8% 9.4 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.5 0.6 0.8 0.9 1.1 1.5 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.4 92.4 5.9%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.0% 8.8% 16.0 8.8