Preseason Rankings
San Diego St.
Mountain West
2022-23
Overall
Predictive Rating+13.8#23
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace64.7#270
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+3.8#82
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+10.1#3
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 1.0% 1.0% 0.1%
#1 Seed 5.1% 5.4% 0.2%
Top 2 Seed 11.1% 11.6% 0.5%
Top 4 Seed 23.4% 24.4% 2.8%
Top 6 Seed 34.2% 35.7% 5.6%
NCAA Tourney Bid 67.9% 69.7% 31.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 55.1% 57.2% 20.5%
Average Seed 6.5 6.4 9.2
.500 or above 94.8% 95.8% 74.4%
.500 or above in Conference 93.3% 94.1% 77.1%
Conference Champion 43.6% 44.9% 17.6%
Last Place in Conference 0.3% 0.3% 1.5%
First Four4.9% 4.9% 4.9%
First Round65.5% 67.3% 29.3%
Second Round44.3% 45.8% 13.5%
Sweet Sixteen23.0% 23.9% 5.1%
Elite Eight11.4% 11.9% 1.7%
Final Four5.4% 5.7% 0.6%
Championship Game2.6% 2.7% 0.1%
National Champion1.2% 1.2% 0.0%

Next Game: Cal St. Fullerton (Home) - 95.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 11 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a1 - 11 - 1
Quad 1b2 - 22 - 3
Quad 25 - 27 - 5
Quad 37 - 114 - 6
Quad 47 - 021 - 6


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 07, 2022 191   Cal St. Fullerton W 74-56 95%    
  Nov 11, 2022 55   BYU W 71-64 74%    
  Nov 15, 2022 57   @ Stanford W 65-64 54%    
  Nov 21, 2022 36   Ohio St. W 67-65 56%    
  Nov 29, 2022 143   UC Irvine W 69-54 90%    
  Dec 05, 2022 235   Troy W 75-55 95%    
  Dec 10, 2022 44   St. Mary's W 62-59 60%    
  Dec 12, 2022 242   Kennesaw St. W 76-56 95%    
  Dec 20, 2022 264   UC San Diego W 79-57 97%    
  Dec 28, 2022 231   Air Force W 71-51 94%    
  Dec 31, 2022 105   @ UNLV W 68-62 69%    
  Jan 07, 2023 62   @ Wyoming W 67-65 55%    
  Jan 10, 2023 126   Nevada W 78-64 86%    
  Jan 14, 2023 110   New Mexico W 79-66 85%    
  Jan 18, 2023 78   @ Colorado St. W 67-64 60%    
  Jan 21, 2023 231   @ Air Force W 68-54 86%    
  Jan 25, 2023 76   Utah St. W 70-61 76%    
  Jan 28, 2023 210   San Jose St. W 74-56 93%    
  Jan 31, 2023 126   @ Nevada W 75-67 73%    
  Feb 03, 2023 77   Boise St. W 67-58 76%    
  Feb 08, 2023 76   @ Utah St. W 67-64 59%    
  Feb 11, 2023 105   UNLV W 71-59 83%    
  Feb 15, 2023 99   @ Fresno St. W 62-57 66%    
  Feb 21, 2023 78   Colorado St. W 70-61 76%    
  Feb 25, 2023 110   @ New Mexico W 76-69 70%    
  Feb 28, 2023 77   @ Boise St. W 64-61 59%    
  Mar 04, 2023 62   Wyoming W 70-62 73%    
Projected Record 21 - 6 13 - 5




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Mountain West Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.3 1.9 5.7 10.1 11.5 9.4 4.7 43.6 1st
2nd 0.0 0.5 2.5 6.1 6.7 3.8 0.8 0.0 20.4 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.4 2.4 4.9 3.5 1.0 0.1 0.0 12.3 3rd
4th 0.0 0.3 1.9 3.3 2.0 0.4 0.0 8.0 4th
5th 0.0 0.2 1.4 2.5 1.3 0.2 0.0 5.6 5th
6th 0.0 0.2 1.0 1.8 0.9 0.1 4.0 6th
7th 0.0 0.1 0.7 1.2 0.6 0.1 2.7 7th
8th 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.7 0.3 0.1 1.7 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.0 1.0 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.4 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 11th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.6 1.1 1.9 2.7 4.2 5.9 7.5 9.9 11.9 13.4 13.9 12.3 9.4 4.7 Total



Mountain West Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 4.7    4.7
17-1 99.8% 9.4    9.1 0.3
16-2 93.6% 11.5    9.7 1.8 0.0
15-3 72.6% 10.1    6.6 3.2 0.3 0.0
14-4 42.4% 5.7    2.6 2.4 0.7 0.1 0.0
13-5 15.8% 1.9    0.5 0.7 0.5 0.1 0.0
12-6 3.1% 0.3    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.1% 0.0    0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 43.6% 43.6 33.2 8.5 1.7 0.3 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 4.7% 99.9% 61.7% 38.2% 1.8 2.3 1.5 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.9%
17-1 9.4% 99.5% 50.5% 48.9% 2.8 2.1 2.6 1.9 1.5 0.6 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 98.9%
16-2 12.3% 98.1% 42.9% 55.2% 4.5 0.6 1.5 2.2 2.6 1.8 1.3 0.9 0.5 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.2 96.7%
15-3 13.9% 93.7% 34.1% 59.6% 6.3 0.1 0.3 0.9 1.9 2.1 2.0 1.8 1.4 1.2 0.9 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.9 90.5%
14-4 13.4% 84.1% 28.6% 55.5% 8.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.9 1.2 1.7 1.7 1.9 1.8 1.2 0.3 0.0 2.1 77.7%
13-5 11.9% 69.0% 22.4% 46.6% 9.4 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.7 1.0 1.5 2.0 1.8 0.5 0.0 0.0 3.7 60.0%
12-6 9.9% 48.9% 18.0% 30.9% 10.2 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.3 1.7 0.6 0.0 0.0 5.1 37.7%
11-7 7.5% 31.3% 14.2% 17.1% 10.9 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.9 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0 5.2 19.9%
10-8 5.9% 18.7% 11.3% 7.3% 11.5 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 4.8 8.3%
9-9 4.2% 11.5% 9.5% 2.0% 12.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 3.7 2.2%
8-10 2.7% 6.5% 6.1% 0.4% 13.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 2.6 0.4%
7-11 1.9% 6.6% 6.6% 15.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 1.7
6-12 1.1% 4.0% 4.0% 15.9 0.0 0.0 1.0
5-13 0.6% 4.3% 4.3% 16.0 0.0 0.6
4-14 0.3% 0.9% 0.9% 16.0 0.0 0.3
3-15 0.2% 0.2
2-16 0.0% 0.0
1-17 0.0% 0.0
0-18 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 67.9% 28.5% 39.4% 6.5 5.1 6.0 5.7 6.6 5.6 5.2 5.4 5.1 6.0 6.9 6.8 2.5 0.4 0.2 0.2 0.2 32.1 55.1%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 2.3% 100.0% 1.4 63.5 30.9 5.1 0.6