Preseason Rankings
Ball St.
Mid-American
2022-23
Overall
Predictive Rating-1.3#200
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace73.9#47
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+0.8#163
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense-2.1#241
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 6.5% 10.5% 4.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.3% 0.7% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.6 13.0 14.4
.500 or above 56.7% 77.6% 46.1%
.500 or above in Conference 55.2% 70.5% 47.5%
Conference Champion 6.8% 12.0% 4.2%
Last Place in Conference 6.9% 2.9% 9.0%
First Four0.9% 0.8% 0.9%
First Round6.0% 10.1% 4.0%
Second Round0.9% 1.8% 0.4%
Sweet Sixteen0.2% 0.5% 0.1%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Indiana St. (Away) - 33.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 21 - 31 - 3
Quad 33 - 64 - 9
Quad 410 - 414 - 13


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 12, 2022 161   @ Indiana St. L 75-80 33%    
  Nov 16, 2022 307   @ Nebraska Omaha W 83-79 65%    
  Nov 25, 2022 104   Vermont L 70-76 30%    
  Dec 03, 2022 178   @ Duquesne L 72-76 37%    
  Dec 07, 2022 330   @ Eastern Illinois W 76-69 71%    
  Dec 10, 2022 313   Evansville W 75-64 82%    
  Dec 17, 2022 180   Illinois St. L 76-77 47%    
  Dec 21, 2022 251   Georgia Southern W 76-70 68%    
  Dec 28, 2022 362   Chicago St. W 86-62 97%    
  Jan 03, 2023 108   @ Toledo L 75-84 24%    
  Jan 07, 2023 119   Akron L 68-70 44%    
  Jan 10, 2023 144   @ Ohio L 73-79 32%    
  Jan 14, 2023 269   Miami (OH) W 81-74 73%    
  Jan 17, 2023 262   Western Michigan W 76-69 72%    
  Jan 21, 2023 120   @ Kent St. L 70-78 27%    
  Jan 24, 2023 133   Buffalo L 81-82 48%    
  Jan 28, 2023 294   @ Northern Illinois W 76-72 62%    
  Jan 31, 2023 234   @ Bowling Green L 84-85 46%    
  Feb 04, 2023 226   Eastern Michigan W 81-76 64%    
  Feb 07, 2023 263   @ Central Michigan W 77-76 54%    
  Feb 11, 2023 234   Bowling Green W 87-82 65%    
  Feb 14, 2023 294   Northern Illinois W 79-69 78%    
  Feb 18, 2023 262   @ Western Michigan W 73-72 53%    
  Feb 21, 2023 120   Kent St. L 73-75 44%    
  Feb 25, 2023 226   @ Eastern Michigan L 78-79 46%    
  Feb 28, 2023 119   @ Akron L 65-73 27%    
  Mar 03, 2023 108   Toledo L 78-81 41%    
Projected Record 14 - 13 9 - 9




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Mid-American Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.7 1.6 1.9 1.6 0.7 0.2 6.8 1st
2nd 0.0 0.3 1.3 2.9 2.5 1.0 0.2 0.0 8.2 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.3 2.0 3.8 2.5 0.6 0.0 0.0 9.2 3rd
4th 0.0 0.4 2.4 4.4 2.3 0.4 0.0 10.0 4th
5th 0.0 0.3 2.4 4.6 2.4 0.4 0.0 10.3 5th
6th 0.0 0.3 2.3 4.6 2.5 0.3 0.0 10.0 6th
7th 0.0 0.2 2.0 4.4 2.7 0.4 0.0 9.8 7th
8th 0.0 0.2 1.9 4.2 2.7 0.4 0.0 9.5 8th
9th 0.0 0.2 1.7 3.8 2.6 0.5 0.0 8.8 9th
10th 0.0 0.3 1.5 3.0 2.1 0.4 0.0 7.4 10th
11th 0.0 0.5 1.6 2.3 1.4 0.3 0.0 6.2 11th
12th 0.2 0.7 1.3 1.2 0.5 0.1 0.0 3.9 12th
Total 0.2 0.7 1.8 3.1 4.6 6.5 8.3 9.5 10.2 10.6 10.4 9.5 8.0 6.4 4.7 3.0 1.7 0.7 0.2 Total



Mid-American Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.2    0.2
17-1 99.7% 0.7    0.7 0.0
16-2 90.9% 1.6    1.3 0.3 0.0
15-3 64.5% 1.9    1.2 0.7 0.1 0.0
14-4 33.3% 1.6    0.6 0.7 0.3 0.0
13-5 10.5% 0.7    0.1 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0
12-6 1.3% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 6.8% 6.8 4.1 2.0 0.7 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.2% 73.5% 47.0% 26.5% 7.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 50.0%
17-1 0.7% 48.7% 37.8% 10.9% 10.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.4 17.6%
16-2 1.7% 36.6% 32.5% 4.0% 12.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 1.1 6.0%
15-3 3.0% 25.2% 24.3% 0.9% 12.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 2.3 1.2%
14-4 4.7% 17.3% 17.2% 0.1% 13.2 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 3.9 0.1%
13-5 6.4% 13.2% 13.2% 13.7 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.0 5.6
12-6 8.0% 9.2% 9.2% 14.2 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.1 7.3
11-7 9.5% 7.5% 7.5% 14.6 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.1 8.7
10-8 10.4% 4.6% 4.6% 15.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 9.9
9-9 10.6% 3.4% 3.4% 15.4 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 10.3
8-10 10.2% 2.5% 2.5% 15.8 0.0 0.0 0.2 10.0
7-11 9.5% 2.0% 2.0% 15.9 0.0 0.0 0.2 9.3
6-12 8.3% 1.1% 1.1% 16.0 0.1 8.2
5-13 6.5% 0.8% 0.8% 16.0 0.0 6.4
4-14 4.6% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 4.5
3-15 3.1% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 3.1
2-16 1.8% 1.8
1-17 0.7% 0.7
0-18 0.2% 0.2
Total 100% 6.5% 6.2% 0.2% 13.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.9 1.3 1.4 1.2 1.1 93.5 0.3%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.1% 85.2% 5.2 5.9 6.5 24.3 18.9 8.9 14.8 3.0 3.0
Lose Out 0.0%