Preseason Rankings
Duquesne
Atlantic 10
2022-23
Overall
Predictive Rating-0.3#178
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace65.8#246
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+0.1#178
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense-0.4#185
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 3.1% 4.3% 1.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 1.2% 1.9% 0.1%
Average Seed 11.8 11.4 13.8
.500 or above 38.0% 50.1% 19.6%
.500 or above in Conference 28.7% 36.4% 17.0%
Conference Champion 1.3% 1.9% 0.3%
Last Place in Conference 17.3% 12.3% 24.9%
First Four0.9% 1.1% 0.5%
First Round2.7% 3.8% 0.9%
Second Round0.6% 0.9% 0.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.2% 0.2% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Montana (Home) - 60.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 4
Quad 21 - 41 - 8
Quad 35 - 66 - 14
Quad 48 - 314 - 17


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 08, 2022 170   Montana W 69-66 60%    
  Nov 11, 2022 3   @ Kentucky L 61-83 2%    
  Nov 14, 2022 356   South Carolina St. W 84-63 97%    
  Nov 18, 2022 113   Colgate L 69-73 37%    
  Nov 21, 2022 243   North Florida W 75-69 70%    
  Nov 23, 2022 354   Alabama St. W 79-60 94%    
  Nov 29, 2022 129   UC Santa Barbara L 69-70 49%    
  Dec 03, 2022 200   Ball St. W 76-72 63%    
  Dec 08, 2022 159   Marshall W 78-76 57%    
  Dec 11, 2022 111   New Mexico St. L 68-69 46%    
  Dec 14, 2022 91   DePaul L 70-74 39%    
  Dec 17, 2022 161   Indiana St. W 73-71 58%    
  Dec 21, 2022 174   Winthrop W 73-70 60%    
  Dec 28, 2022 28   @ Dayton L 57-73 10%    
  Dec 31, 2022 112   Rhode Island L 68-69 46%    
  Jan 04, 2023 75   Virginia Commonwealth L 66-71 34%    
  Jan 07, 2023 88   @ Richmond L 64-74 21%    
  Jan 11, 2023 149   @ Saint Joseph's L 68-73 36%    
  Jan 18, 2023 103   @ St. Bonaventure L 64-72 26%    
  Jan 21, 2023 202   Fordham W 68-64 63%    
  Jan 25, 2023 54   Loyola Chicago L 62-69 29%    
  Jan 28, 2023 124   @ Massachusetts L 72-79 30%    
  Feb 04, 2023 196   @ George Washington L 71-73 43%    
  Feb 08, 2023 123   George Mason L 67-68 48%    
  Feb 11, 2023 103   St. Bonaventure L 67-69 44%    
  Feb 15, 2023 149   Saint Joseph's W 71-70 55%    
  Feb 18, 2023 45   @ Saint Louis L 65-79 13%    
  Feb 22, 2023 182   @ La Salle L 68-71 41%    
  Feb 26, 2023 81   Davidson L 66-71 36%    
  Mar 01, 2023 124   Massachusetts L 75-76 48%    
  Mar 04, 2023 202   @ Fordham L 65-67 44%    
Projected Record 14 - 17 7 - 11




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic 10 Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0 1.3 1st
2nd 0.0 0.3 0.7 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.0 2.1 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.4 1.1 1.0 0.3 0.0 2.9 3rd
4th 0.0 0.3 1.4 1.4 0.4 0.0 0.0 3.6 4th
5th 0.2 1.5 1.9 0.6 0.1 4.3 5th
6th 0.1 1.3 2.7 1.1 0.1 0.0 5.2 6th
7th 0.0 0.9 3.0 1.7 0.2 0.0 5.9 7th
8th 0.0 0.5 3.0 2.8 0.5 0.0 6.8 8th
9th 0.3 2.3 3.5 1.0 0.1 7.2 9th
10th 0.1 1.9 4.3 1.9 0.1 8.4 10th
11th 0.0 0.1 1.5 4.4 2.8 0.3 9.2 11th
12th 0.1 1.3 4.2 3.7 0.7 0.0 10.0 12th
13th 0.0 0.1 1.5 4.3 3.9 1.1 0.0 10.8 13th
14th 0.4 1.8 4.0 3.8 1.1 0.1 11.2 14th
15th 1.2 3.0 3.7 2.4 0.7 0.1 0.0 11.0 15th
Total 1.2 3.3 5.6 8.0 10.2 10.9 11.5 10.8 9.8 8.5 6.7 5.0 3.6 2.3 1.4 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.0 Total



Atlantic 10 Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
17-1 95.5% 0.1    0.1 0.0
16-2 83.9% 0.3    0.2 0.1 0.0
15-3 60.4% 0.4    0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0
14-4 21.6% 0.3    0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
13-5 6.0% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0
12-6 0.5% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 1.3% 1.3 0.6 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.0% 100.0% 100.0% 7.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
17-1 0.1% 93.2% 20.5% 72.7% 6.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 91.4%
16-2 0.3% 72.9% 15.0% 57.9% 8.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 68.1%
15-3 0.7% 51.6% 10.8% 40.8% 9.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.4 45.8%
14-4 1.4% 30.2% 9.0% 21.1% 10.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 1.0 23.2%
13-5 2.3% 14.8% 7.9% 6.9% 11.3 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 2.0 7.5%
12-6 3.6% 8.9% 6.2% 2.6% 11.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 3.3 2.8%
11-7 5.0% 5.1% 4.2% 0.9% 12.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 4.7 0.9%
10-8 6.7% 2.7% 2.7% 0.1% 13.3 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 6.5 0.1%
9-9 8.5% 2.3% 2.3% 13.7 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 8.3
8-10 9.8% 1.7% 1.7% 14.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 9.6
7-11 10.8% 1.5% 1.5% 15.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 10.6
6-12 11.5% 1.0% 1.0% 15.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 11.4
5-13 10.9% 0.8% 0.8% 16.0 0.1 10.8
4-14 10.2% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.1 10.2
3-15 8.0% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 8.0
2-16 5.6% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 5.6
1-17 3.3% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 3.3
0-18 1.2% 1.2
Total 100% 3.1% 1.9% 1.2% 11.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.6 0.6 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.4 96.9 1.2%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.0%