Preseason Rankings
Buffalo
Mid-American
2022-23
Overall
Predictive Rating+2.2#133
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace76.3#23
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+2.6#109
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense-0.4#184
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.2% 0.4% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.6% 1.0% 0.1%
NCAA Tourney Bid 15.0% 19.7% 9.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 2.0% 3.3% 0.4%
Average Seed 12.3 11.8 13.5
.500 or above 59.3% 73.8% 41.2%
.500 or above in Conference 75.3% 83.8% 64.5%
Conference Champion 16.4% 21.8% 9.6%
Last Place in Conference 2.3% 1.1% 3.8%
First Four1.7% 1.9% 1.5%
First Round14.2% 18.8% 8.5%
Second Round3.1% 4.6% 1.2%
Sweet Sixteen0.8% 1.3% 0.3%
Elite Eight0.2% 0.3% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Colgate (Home) - 55.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 3
Quad 21 - 31 - 6
Quad 34 - 46 - 10
Quad 49 - 215 - 12


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 07, 2022 113   Colgate W 78-77 56%    
  Nov 12, 2022 162   James Madison W 83-78 67%    
  Nov 15, 2022 31   @ Connecticut L 68-81 12%    
  Nov 18, 2022 74   Drake L 73-79 31%    
  Nov 27, 2022 290   Canisius W 84-71 87%    
  Dec 03, 2022 103   St. Bonaventure W 75-74 52%    
  Dec 10, 2022 82   Tulane L 76-81 34%    
  Dec 18, 2022 56   @ West Virginia L 73-83 20%    
  Dec 30, 2022 25   @ Michigan St. L 71-85 13%    
  Jan 03, 2023 144   Ohio W 79-75 62%    
  Jan 07, 2023 294   Northern Illinois W 82-69 85%    
  Jan 10, 2023 269   @ Miami (OH) W 81-76 65%    
  Jan 14, 2023 263   @ Central Michigan W 80-75 65%    
  Jan 17, 2023 234   Bowling Green W 90-82 75%    
  Jan 21, 2023 108   Toledo W 81-80 52%    
  Jan 24, 2023 200   @ Ball St. W 82-81 52%    
  Jan 28, 2023 120   @ Kent St. L 73-77 37%    
  Jan 31, 2023 119   Akron W 71-69 55%    
  Feb 04, 2023 262   @ Western Michigan W 76-71 64%    
  Feb 07, 2023 226   Eastern Michigan W 84-76 74%    
  Feb 11, 2023 120   Kent St. W 76-74 55%    
  Feb 14, 2023 144   @ Ohio L 76-78 43%    
  Feb 18, 2023 119   @ Akron L 68-72 36%    
  Feb 21, 2023 263   Central Michigan W 83-72 80%    
  Feb 25, 2023 108   @ Toledo L 78-83 34%    
  Feb 28, 2023 294   @ Northern Illinois W 79-72 71%    
  Mar 03, 2023 269   Miami (OH) W 84-73 80%    
Projected Record 15 - 12 11 - 7




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Mid-American Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 1.1 3.0 4.6 4.2 2.4 0.9 16.4 1st
2nd 0.0 0.3 2.0 4.6 4.7 2.2 0.4 0.0 14.2 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.3 2.6 5.1 3.9 1.1 0.1 13.1 3rd
4th 0.4 2.5 4.8 3.2 0.6 0.0 11.4 4th
5th 0.0 0.3 2.2 4.5 2.9 0.5 0.0 10.4 5th
6th 0.0 0.2 1.9 4.1 2.5 0.4 0.0 9.0 6th
7th 0.1 1.3 3.4 2.3 0.4 0.0 7.5 7th
8th 0.1 1.0 2.7 1.9 0.4 0.0 6.1 8th
9th 0.1 0.8 2.0 1.6 0.3 0.0 4.7 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.7 1.3 1.2 0.3 0.0 3.5 10th
11th 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.8 0.7 0.2 0.0 2.4 11th
12th 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 1.2 12th
Total 0.0 0.2 0.4 1.0 1.8 2.9 4.4 6.1 7.8 9.3 10.2 10.9 11.0 10.2 8.9 6.9 4.6 2.4 0.9 Total



Mid-American Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.9    0.9
17-1 99.8% 2.4    2.3 0.1
16-2 91.8% 4.2    3.3 0.8 0.0
15-3 66.9% 4.6    2.8 1.6 0.2 0.0
14-4 34.0% 3.0    1.1 1.4 0.5 0.0
13-5 10.5% 1.1    0.2 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.0
12-6 1.8% 0.2    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0
11-7 0.0% 0.0    0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 16.4% 16.4 10.7 4.4 1.1 0.2 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.9% 85.8% 60.2% 25.6% 7.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 64.4%
17-1 2.4% 67.0% 47.2% 19.8% 9.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.8 37.5%
16-2 4.6% 49.7% 38.8% 10.9% 11.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.6 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.0 2.3 17.8%
15-3 6.9% 34.3% 29.3% 5.0% 11.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.6 0.9 0.5 0.1 0.0 4.5 7.1%
14-4 8.9% 23.6% 22.2% 1.4% 12.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.7 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.0 6.8 1.8%
13-5 10.2% 18.0% 17.7% 0.3% 13.1 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.6 0.5 0.2 0.0 8.4 0.3%
12-6 11.0% 13.0% 13.0% 13.7 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.1 9.6
11-7 10.9% 9.1% 9.1% 14.4 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.2 9.9
10-8 10.2% 7.1% 7.1% 15.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 9.5
9-9 9.3% 4.6% 4.6% 15.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 8.9
8-10 7.8% 2.7% 2.7% 15.9 0.0 0.2 7.6
7-11 6.1% 2.2% 2.2% 16.0 0.0 0.1 6.0
6-12 4.4% 1.5% 1.5% 16.0 0.1 4.3
5-13 2.9% 0.8% 0.8% 16.0 0.0 2.9
4-14 1.8% 1.1% 1.1% 16.0 0.0 1.8
3-15 1.0% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.0 1.0
2-16 0.4% 0.4
1-17 0.2% 0.2
0-18 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 15.0% 13.3% 1.7% 12.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.7 2.0 3.4 2.8 1.7 1.4 1.3 85.0 2.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.0% 100.0% 2.7 24.6 18.0 24.6 24.6 8.2
Lose Out 0.0%