Preseason Rankings
Colgate
Patriot League
2022-23
Overall
Predictive Rating+3.8#113
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace67.9#194
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+3.1#94
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+0.6#155
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.3% 0.7% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.9% 2.0% 0.1%
NCAA Tourney Bid 45.0% 54.8% 37.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 1.1% 2.6% 0.2%
Average Seed 12.9 12.3 13.6
.500 or above 91.0% 97.3% 86.0%
.500 or above in Conference 95.4% 98.2% 93.1%
Conference Champion 57.0% 67.5% 48.6%
Last Place in Conference 0.4% 0.1% 0.7%
First Four1.6% 1.1% 2.1%
First Round44.2% 54.3% 36.2%
Second Round7.6% 11.6% 4.5%
Sweet Sixteen2.1% 3.4% 1.1%
Elite Eight0.5% 0.9% 0.2%
Final Four0.1% 0.3% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Buffalo (Away) - 44.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 14 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 21 - 11 - 3
Quad 34 - 35 - 6
Quad 416 - 321 - 9


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 07, 2022 133   @ Buffalo L 77-78 44%    
  Nov 10, 2022 240   @ Brown W 74-70 64%    
  Nov 15, 2022 52   @ Syracuse L 71-80 20%    
  Nov 18, 2022 178   Duquesne W 73-69 63%    
  Nov 21, 2022 260   Monmouth W 76-64 84%    
  Nov 25, 2022 153   Delaware W 74-71 60%    
  Nov 26, 2022 150   @ Penn L 74-75 49%    
  Nov 27, 2022 327   Hartford W 79-65 88%    
  Dec 02, 2022 21   @ Auburn L 69-82 14%    
  Dec 07, 2022 323   @ Binghamton W 78-67 81%    
  Dec 10, 2022 104   Vermont W 71-69 56%    
  Dec 22, 2022 217   Cornell W 83-74 76%    
  Dec 30, 2022 297   @ Loyola Maryland W 72-63 76%    
  Jan 02, 2023 282   @ Lehigh W 78-70 73%    
  Jan 05, 2023 246   Navy W 71-61 79%    
  Jan 09, 2023 266   @ Army W 77-71 69%    
  Jan 11, 2023 233   Boston University W 75-65 78%    
  Jan 14, 2023 274   Bucknell W 82-69 85%    
  Jan 18, 2023 317   @ Holy Cross W 78-68 79%    
  Jan 21, 2023 312   American W 77-61 89%    
  Jan 23, 2023 233   @ Boston University W 72-68 62%    
  Jan 28, 2023 271   Lafayette W 76-64 84%    
  Jan 30, 2023 297   Loyola Maryland W 75-60 88%    
  Feb 04, 2023 312   @ American W 74-64 78%    
  Feb 08, 2023 282   Lehigh W 81-67 86%    
  Feb 11, 2023 274   @ Bucknell W 79-72 71%    
  Feb 15, 2023 266   Army W 80-68 83%    
  Feb 18, 2023 317   Holy Cross W 81-65 89%    
  Feb 22, 2023 271   @ Lafayette W 73-67 69%    
  Feb 25, 2023 246   @ Navy W 68-64 63%    
Projected Record 21 - 9 14 - 4




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Patriot League Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.6 2.7 7.3 11.7 14.2 12.8 7.6 57.0 1st
2nd 0.0 0.1 0.9 3.1 5.6 5.4 2.8 0.7 18.5 2nd
3rd 0.1 0.8 2.9 3.5 2.1 0.5 0.0 9.9 3rd
4th 0.0 0.6 2.0 2.2 0.9 0.1 5.8 4th
5th 0.0 0.0 0.4 1.3 1.3 0.4 0.0 3.5 5th
6th 0.0 0.3 1.0 0.8 0.2 0.0 2.3 6th
7th 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.5 0.1 1.4 7th
8th 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.9 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.5 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 10th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.7 1.1 2.0 2.9 4.4 6.4 8.1 10.5 13.2 14.5 14.9 12.8 7.6 Total



Patriot League Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 7.6    7.6
17-1 100.0% 12.8    12.5 0.3
16-2 95.1% 14.2    12.7 1.5 0.0
15-3 80.6% 11.7    8.6 2.9 0.2
14-4 55.1% 7.3    3.9 2.8 0.5 0.0
13-5 26.1% 2.7    0.8 1.3 0.5 0.1 0.0
12-6 7.7% 0.6    0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0
11-7 0.4% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 57.0% 57.0 46.3 9.0 1.4 0.2 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 7.6% 85.8% 81.7% 4.1% 10.4 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.5 1.5 1.6 0.9 0.2 0.0 1.1 22.5%
17-1 12.8% 72.8% 71.2% 1.6% 12.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 1.6 3.4 2.7 1.0 0.1 0.0 3.5 5.7%
16-2 14.9% 61.5% 61.0% 0.5% 12.9 0.0 0.0 0.6 2.7 3.4 1.8 0.5 0.0 5.7 1.2%
15-3 14.5% 48.7% 48.7% 0.1% 13.5 0.0 0.1 1.2 2.5 2.2 1.0 0.1 7.4 0.1%
14-4 13.2% 39.7% 39.7% 0.0% 13.9 0.0 0.4 1.3 1.9 1.3 0.3 7.9 0.0%
13-5 10.5% 32.4% 32.4% 14.4 0.1 0.6 1.1 1.2 0.5 7.1
12-6 8.1% 25.3% 25.3% 14.8 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.8 0.6 6.1
11-7 6.4% 18.2% 18.2% 15.2 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.5 5.2
10-8 4.4% 12.7% 12.7% 15.5 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 3.9
9-9 2.9% 8.5% 8.5% 15.8 0.0 0.0 0.2 2.7
8-10 2.0% 6.8% 6.8% 16.0 0.0 0.1 1.9
7-11 1.1% 4.0% 4.0% 16.0 0.0 1.1
6-12 0.7% 3.4% 3.4% 16.0 0.0 0.7
5-13 0.4% 2.9% 2.9% 16.0 0.0 0.4
4-14 0.2% 2.4% 2.4% 16.0 0.0 0.2
3-15 0.1% 0.1
2-16 0.0% 0.0
1-17 0.0% 0.0
0-18 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 45.0% 44.4% 0.6% 12.9 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.9 3.8 9.4 11.6 9.0 5.5 2.8 55.0 1.1%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.4% 99.3% 4.5 0.7 4.2 20.5 25.9 23.1 16.7 6.2 1.4 0.7