Preseason Rankings
James Madison
Sun Belt
2022-23
Overall
Predictive Rating+0.3#162
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace71.8#82
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+2.3#117
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense-2.0#239
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 10.6% 11.3% 4.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.6% 0.6% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.1 13.1 14.8
.500 or above 61.8% 65.6% 26.0%
.500 or above in Conference 66.0% 68.8% 39.1%
Conference Champion 12.8% 13.8% 3.4%
Last Place in Conference 4.6% 3.8% 12.7%
First Four1.1% 1.0% 1.5%
First Round10.2% 10.9% 3.4%
Second Round1.5% 1.7% 0.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.4% 0.4% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Hampton (Home) - 90.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 20 - 21 - 4
Quad 34 - 54 - 9
Quad 411 - 315 - 12


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2022 328   Hampton W 84-70 90%    
  Nov 12, 2022 133   @ Buffalo L 78-83 33%    
  Nov 15, 2022 332   @ Howard W 85-77 77%    
  Nov 20, 2022 2   @ North Carolina L 69-91 3%    
  Nov 26, 2022 134   South Dakota St. L 81-83 44%    
  Dec 02, 2022 219   Eastern Kentucky W 84-78 68%    
  Dec 06, 2022 20   @ Virginia L 56-73 8%    
  Dec 18, 2022 304   LIU Brooklyn W 87-75 83%    
  Dec 21, 2022 336   @ Coppin St. W 84-75 76%    
  Dec 29, 2022 169   @ Georgia St. L 73-76 41%    
  Dec 31, 2022 159   @ Marshall L 81-84 40%    
  Jan 05, 2023 168   Texas St. W 71-68 60%    
  Jan 07, 2023 183   Appalachian St. W 72-68 62%    
  Jan 12, 2023 205   @ South Alabama L 73-74 46%    
  Jan 14, 2023 251   Georgia Southern W 76-69 72%    
  Jan 19, 2023 235   @ Troy W 74-73 51%    
  Jan 21, 2023 299   @ Southern Miss W 77-72 66%    
  Jan 26, 2023 184   Coastal Carolina W 76-72 62%    
  Jan 28, 2023 259   Louisiana Monroe W 81-73 75%    
  Feb 02, 2023 186   @ Old Dominion L 69-71 43%    
  Feb 04, 2023 183   @ Appalachian St. L 69-71 43%    
  Feb 09, 2023 251   @ Georgia Southern W 73-72 54%    
  Feb 11, 2023 184   @ Coastal Carolina L 73-75 43%    
  Feb 16, 2023 186   Old Dominion W 72-68 61%    
  Feb 18, 2023 158   Louisiana W 71-68 59%    
  Feb 22, 2023 159   Marshall W 84-81 59%    
  Feb 24, 2023 169   Georgia St. W 76-73 60%    
Projected Record 15 - 12 10 - 8




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Sun Belt Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 1.1 2.7 3.6 3.1 1.7 0.6 12.8 1st
2nd 0.0 0.2 1.6 3.5 3.3 1.4 0.3 0.0 10.3 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.1 1.5 3.8 3.1 0.9 0.1 0.0 9.5 3rd
4th 0.0 1.1 3.7 3.2 0.7 0.1 8.8 4th
5th 0.0 0.8 3.5 3.4 0.8 0.0 8.6 5th
6th 0.0 0.3 2.6 3.8 1.1 0.1 7.8 6th
7th 0.1 1.5 3.9 1.5 0.1 7.2 7th
8th 0.1 1.0 3.3 2.2 0.2 0.0 6.8 8th
9th 0.0 0.6 2.5 2.6 0.5 0.0 6.2 9th
10th 0.0 0.3 2.0 2.6 0.8 0.0 5.8 10th
11th 0.0 0.3 1.4 2.3 1.1 0.1 0.0 5.2 11th
12th 0.0 0.3 1.3 1.9 1.1 0.1 4.7 12th
13th 0.1 0.3 1.0 1.3 0.9 0.2 0.0 3.8 13th
14th 0.1 0.4 0.7 0.7 0.5 0.1 2.5 14th
Total 0.1 0.5 1.0 2.0 3.4 4.7 6.2 7.5 8.6 10.0 10.3 10.0 9.7 8.3 7.0 5.1 3.4 1.7 0.6 Total



Sun Belt Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.6    0.6
17-1 99.1% 1.7    1.6 0.1
16-2 90.8% 3.1    2.5 0.6 0.0
15-3 70.4% 3.6    2.2 1.2 0.2 0.0
14-4 38.3% 2.7    1.1 1.2 0.4 0.0
13-5 12.9% 1.1    0.2 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0
12-6 1.6% 0.2    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0
11-7 0.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 12.8% 12.8 8.2 3.4 0.9 0.2 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.6% 79.3% 57.3% 22.0% 9.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 51.5%
17-1 1.7% 58.7% 48.1% 10.6% 11.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.7 20.3%
16-2 3.4% 36.5% 32.7% 3.9% 11.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.0 2.1 5.7%
15-3 5.1% 27.4% 26.5% 0.9% 12.6 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0 3.7 1.2%
14-4 7.0% 20.9% 20.5% 0.4% 13.1 0.0 0.0 0.4 0.6 0.4 0.1 0.0 5.5 0.5%
13-5 8.3% 15.2% 15.2% 0.1% 13.5 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.4 0.2 0.0 7.1 0.1%
12-6 9.7% 12.4% 12.4% 13.9 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.2 0.0 8.5
11-7 10.0% 8.6% 8.6% 14.5 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.1 9.2
10-8 10.3% 7.1% 7.1% 14.9 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.2 9.6
9-9 10.0% 4.1% 4.1% 15.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 9.6
8-10 8.6% 3.6% 3.6% 15.8 0.0 0.0 0.3 8.3
7-11 7.5% 2.2% 2.2% 15.9 0.0 0.2 7.3
6-12 6.2% 1.3% 1.3% 16.0 0.1 6.1
5-13 4.7% 1.0% 1.0% 16.0 0.0 4.6
4-14 3.4% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.0 3.4
3-15 2.0% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 2.0
2-16 1.0% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.0 1.0
1-17 0.5% 0.5
0-18 0.1% 0.1
Total 100% 10.6% 10.1% 0.5% 13.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.9 2.0 2.5 2.1 1.4 1.2 89.4 0.6%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.0% 100.0% 3.9 26.3 8.8 10.5 54.4