Niagara
Metro Atlantic Athletic
2021-22 - 2022-23 - 2023-24
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Overall
Predictive Rating-2.6#212
Expected Predictive Rating-0.3#179
Pace61.1#346
Improvement+0.1#96

Offense
Total Offense-2.9#265
First Shot-2.9#269
After Offensive Rebound+0.0#184
Layup/Dunks-0.2#186
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.9#75
3 Pt Jumpshots-4.3#311
Freethrows-0.2#187
Improvement-0.1#183

Defense
Total Defense+0.3#172
First Shot+0.6#156
After Offensive Rebounds-0.3#212
Layups/Dunks+1.8#113
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.2#280
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.0#114
Freethrows-2.0#297
Improvement+0.1#75
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 5.2% 11.1% 4.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.7 14.1 14.9
.500 or above 59.7% 81.8% 56.4%
.500 or above in Conference 57.9% 81.4% 54.4%
Conference Champion 5.5% 19.5% 3.4%
Last Place in Conference 5.8% 1.5% 6.4%
First Four0.8% 0.7% 0.8%
First Round4.8% 10.8% 3.9%
Second Round0.2% 0.6% 0.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Iona (Away) - 12.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 20 - 10 - 4
Quad 33 - 53 - 8
Quad 412 - 514 - 14


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 07, 2022 12   @ Maryland L 49-71 3%     0 - 1 -1.7 -4.1 -2.6
  Nov 12, 2022 216   @ Bucknell L 50-68 40%     0 - 2 -18.0 -16.6 -4.6
  Nov 18, 2022 319   Central Arkansas W 73-64 75%     1 - 2 -0.7 -3.5 +3.1
  Nov 19, 2022 203   Stetson W 66-62 47%     2 - 2 +2.3 -2.7 +5.7
  Nov 26, 2022 42   @ St. John's L 70-78 8%     2 - 3 +5.3 -1.4 +7.3
  Dec 02, 2022 83   @ Iona L 61-73 13%    
  Dec 04, 2022 150   @ Quinnipiac L 62-69 26%    
  Dec 11, 2022 263   Eastern Michigan W 71-65 70%    
  Dec 18, 2022 317   @ NJIT W 63-59 64%    
  Dec 21, 2022 336   Binghamton W 73-61 87%    
  Dec 30, 2022 239   Mount St. Mary's W 66-62 66%    
  Jan 01, 2023 225   Rider W 67-63 64%    
  Jan 06, 2023 236   @ Fairfield L 60-62 44%    
  Jan 08, 2023 265   @ Manhattan L 64-65 50%    
  Jan 13, 2023 191   Siena W 64-62 56%    
  Jan 15, 2023 310   Marist W 63-54 80%    
  Jan 20, 2023 225   @ Rider L 64-66 43%    
  Jan 22, 2023 206   @ St. Peter's L 59-63 37%    
  Jan 27, 2023 265   Manhattan W 67-61 69%    
  Feb 03, 2023 293   Canisius W 69-61 75%    
  Feb 05, 2023 191   @ Siena L 61-65 35%    
  Feb 10, 2023 150   Quinnipiac L 65-66 48%    
  Feb 12, 2023 83   Iona L 64-70 30%    
  Feb 17, 2023 239   @ Mount St. Mary's L 63-65 44%    
  Feb 19, 2023 310   @ Marist W 60-57 60%    
  Feb 24, 2023 236   Fairfield W 63-59 65%    
  Feb 26, 2023 206   St. Peter's W 62-60 59%    
  Mar 04, 2023 293   @ Canisius W 66-64 56%    
Projected Record 14 - 14 10 - 10





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Metro Atlantic Athletic Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 0.7 1.5 1.5 1.0 0.4 0.2 0.0 5.5 1st
2nd 0.1 0.9 2.7 3.6 2.5 1.0 0.3 0.0 11.0 2nd
3rd 0.1 1.4 3.9 4.1 2.0 0.4 0.0 12.0 3rd
4th 0.1 1.6 4.7 4.3 1.6 0.2 0.0 12.6 4th
5th 0.1 1.6 4.6 4.4 1.2 0.1 12.1 5th
6th 0.1 1.2 4.4 4.2 1.1 0.1 11.0 6th
7th 0.0 0.1 1.0 4.1 4.4 1.1 0.1 10.8 7th
8th 0.1 0.9 3.1 3.8 1.1 0.1 9.0 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.9 2.7 3.0 1.0 0.0 7.7 9th
10th 0.0 0.2 1.0 1.8 1.6 0.6 0.1 5.3 10th
11th 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.8 1.0 0.7 0.3 0.0 3.1 11th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.0 2.1 3.5 5.5 7.8 10.2 11.5 11.7 11.8 10.4 8.7 6.5 4.4 2.5 1.2 0.4 0.2 0.0 Total



Metro Atlantic Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
19-1 100.0% 0.2    0.2
18-2 98.2% 0.4    0.4 0.1
17-3 79.4% 1.0    0.8 0.2 0.0
16-4 59.5% 1.5    1.0 0.4 0.1
15-5 34.1% 1.5    0.7 0.7 0.2 0.0
14-6 10.5% 0.7    0.1 0.3 0.2 0.0
13-7 2.4% 0.2    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.2% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 5.5% 5.5 3.2 1.7 0.4 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0
19-1 0.2% 44.2% 41.6% 2.6% 12.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 4.4%
18-2 0.4% 29.0% 29.0% 12.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.3
17-3 1.2% 27.6% 27.6% 13.3 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.9
16-4 2.5% 22.0% 22.0% 13.7 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.1 2.0
15-5 4.4% 15.3% 15.3% 14.2 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.0 3.7
14-6 6.5% 11.1% 11.1% 14.5 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.0 5.8
13-7 8.7% 8.5% 8.5% 14.9 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.1 8.0
12-8 10.4% 6.5% 6.5% 15.2 0.1 0.4 0.2 9.7
11-9 11.8% 4.1% 4.1% 15.5 0.0 0.2 0.3 11.3
10-10 11.7% 2.7% 2.7% 15.7 0.1 0.2 11.4
9-11 11.5% 2.0% 2.0% 16.0 0.0 0.2 11.3
8-12 10.2% 1.4% 1.4% 16.0 0.1 10.1
7-13 7.8% 0.8% 0.8% 16.0 0.1 7.8
6-14 5.5% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.0 5.4
5-15 3.5% 0.6% 0.6% 16.0 0.0 3.5
4-16 2.1% 0.7% 0.7% 16.0 0.0 2.1
3-17 1.0% 1.0
2-18 0.4% 0.4
1-19 0.1% 0.1
0-20 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 5.2% 5.2% 0.0% 14.7 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.3 1.8 1.3 94.8 0.0%