Maryland
Big Ten
2021-22 - 2022-23 - 2023-24
Switch to All-time Team Page
Overall
Predictive Rating+17.3#12
Expected Predictive Rating+18.1#15
Pace67.4#220
Improvement+0.3#23

Offense
Total Offense+10.0#10
First Shot+6.2#36
After Offensive Rebound+3.8#16
Layup/Dunks+3.7#62
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.7#133
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.6#161
Freethrows+1.2#106
Improvement+0.2#37

Defense
Total Defense+7.3#35
First Shot+8.7#14
After Offensive Rebounds-1.4#270
Layups/Dunks+4.4#40
2 Pt Jumpshots-3.9#355
3 Pt Jumpshots+5.0#34
Freethrows+3.2#26
Improvement+0.1#82
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 3.9% 5.4% 1.6%
#1 Seed 16.5% 22.0% 7.8%
Top 2 Seed 34.6% 44.1% 19.9%
Top 4 Seed 66.9% 76.9% 51.4%
Top 6 Seed 85.9% 92.2% 76.3%
NCAA Tourney Bid 97.3% 99.0% 94.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 96.8% 98.8% 94.0%
Average Seed 3.7 3.2 4.6
.500 or above 99.6% 99.9% 99.1%
.500 or above in Conference 93.9% 97.3% 88.8%
Conference Champion 21.9% 29.8% 9.7%
Last Place in Conference 0.1% 0.0% 0.2%
First Four1.0% 0.4% 1.9%
First Round96.8% 98.8% 93.7%
Second Round82.1% 87.0% 74.5%
Sweet Sixteen52.9% 58.5% 44.1%
Elite Eight28.8% 32.9% 22.5%
Final Four15.0% 17.7% 11.0%
Championship Game7.5% 8.9% 5.2%
National Champion3.6% 4.5% 2.2%

Next Game: Illinois (Home) - 60.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 3 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a4 - 44 - 4
Quad 1b5 - 29 - 6
Quad 25 - 113 - 7
Quad 34 - 017 - 7
Quad 47 - 024 - 7


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 07, 2022 212   Niagara W 71-49 97%     1 - 0 +16.4 +12.9 +8.4
  Nov 10, 2022 284   Western Carolina W 71-51 98%     2 - 0 +10.6 -12.1 +21.9
  Nov 15, 2022 336   Binghamton W 76-52 99%     3 - 0 +9.0 -5.0 +14.7
  Nov 19, 2022 46   Saint Louis W 95-67 76%     4 - 0 +38.0 +22.8 +14.6
  Nov 20, 2022 36   Miami (FL) W 88-70 73%     5 - 0 +28.8 +20.2 +9.0
  Nov 25, 2022 313   Coppin St. W 95-79 99%     6 - 0 +4.0 +9.3 -6.1
  Nov 29, 2022 210   @ Louisville W 79-54 93%     7 - 0 +25.6 +8.0 +17.2
  Dec 02, 2022 10   Illinois W 76-73 61%    
  Dec 06, 2022 35   @ Wisconsin W 67-64 63%    
  Dec 11, 2022 5   Tennessee L 66-67 45%    
  Dec 14, 2022 9   UCLA W 74-71 60%    
  Dec 22, 2022 206   St. Peter's W 78-56 98%    
  Dec 29, 2022 279   Maryland Baltimore Co. W 89-63 99%    
  Jan 01, 2023 58   @ Michigan W 75-70 69%    
  Jan 05, 2023 39   @ Rutgers W 69-65 63%    
  Jan 08, 2023 23   Ohio St. W 76-70 71%    
  Jan 15, 2023 24   @ Iowa W 78-77 51%    
  Jan 19, 2023 58   Michigan W 78-67 85%    
  Jan 22, 2023 3   @ Purdue L 68-73 31%    
  Jan 25, 2023 35   Wisconsin W 70-61 80%    
  Jan 28, 2023 92   Nebraska W 77-62 91%    
  Jan 31, 2023 7   Indiana W 73-71 57%    
  Feb 04, 2023 166   @ Minnesota W 72-58 89%    
  Feb 07, 2023 37   @ Michigan St. W 71-68 62%    
  Feb 11, 2023 43   Penn St. W 74-64 82%    
  Feb 16, 2023 3   Purdue W 71-70 52%    
  Feb 19, 2023 92   @ Nebraska W 74-65 78%    
  Feb 22, 2023 166   Minnesota W 75-55 96%    
  Feb 26, 2023 90   Northwestern W 71-57 90%    
  Mar 01, 2023 23   @ Ohio St. W 74-73 50%    
  Mar 05, 2023 43   @ Penn St. W 71-67 65%    
Projected Record 24 - 7 14 - 6





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Big Ten Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.4 2.3 5.3 6.8 4.8 1.9 0.4 21.9 1st
2nd 0.0 0.0 0.7 3.5 6.8 5.9 2.1 0.3 0.0 19.3 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.7 3.9 6.8 4.5 1.1 0.1 17.1 3rd
4th 0.0 0.4 2.9 6.2 3.4 0.7 0.0 13.7 4th
5th 0.2 1.9 4.4 2.6 0.4 0.0 9.5 5th
6th 0.1 1.2 3.1 2.1 0.3 0.0 6.8 6th
7th 0.0 0.6 2.0 1.6 0.3 0.0 4.5 7th
8th 0.0 0.2 1.2 1.2 0.3 0.0 2.9 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.7 1.0 0.3 0.0 2.1 9th
10th 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.2 0.0 1.1 10th
11th 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.6 11th
12th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.3 12th
13th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 13th
14th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 14th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.8 1.6 3.0 4.9 7.4 10.5 13.7 14.5 14.4 12.2 9.0 5.0 1.9 0.4 Total



Big Ten Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.4    0.4
19-1 99.7% 1.9    1.8 0.1
18-2 94.4% 4.8    4.1 0.7 0.0
17-3 75.6% 6.8    4.4 2.1 0.3 0.0
16-4 43.1% 5.3    2.1 2.3 0.8 0.0
15-5 15.9% 2.3    0.4 0.9 0.7 0.2 0.0
14-6 3.0% 0.4    0.0 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0
13-7 0.2% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 21.9% 21.9 13.4 6.3 1.9 0.3 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.4% 100.0% 35.7% 64.3% 1.1 0.4 0.0 100.0%
19-1 1.9% 100.0% 31.2% 68.8% 1.2 1.6 0.3 0.0 100.0%
18-2 5.0% 100.0% 23.1% 76.9% 1.3 3.6 1.4 0.1 0.0 100.0%
17-3 9.0% 100.0% 20.3% 79.7% 1.6 4.7 3.6 0.7 0.0 100.0%
16-4 12.2% 100.0% 18.5% 81.5% 2.0 3.9 5.1 2.7 0.5 0.0 0.0 100.0%
15-5 14.4% 100.0% 16.6% 83.4% 2.6 1.8 4.8 5.2 2.2 0.4 0.0 0.0 100.0%
14-6 14.5% 100.0% 13.2% 86.8% 3.4 0.5 2.3 5.5 4.2 1.6 0.4 0.0 100.0%
13-7 13.7% 100.0% 10.5% 89.5% 4.2 0.1 0.5 3.2 4.6 3.6 1.5 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
12-8 10.5% 99.8% 8.4% 91.4% 5.2 0.1 0.8 2.2 3.3 2.7 1.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 99.8%
11-9 7.4% 99.1% 8.2% 90.9% 6.3 0.1 0.4 1.6 2.4 1.7 0.8 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.1 99.0%
10-10 4.9% 96.6% 6.4% 90.2% 7.4 0.0 0.0 0.4 1.0 1.2 1.1 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.2 96.4%
9-11 3.0% 82.7% 6.3% 76.3% 9.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.5 81.5%
8-12 1.6% 51.7% 3.6% 48.1% 10.3 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.8 49.9%
7-13 0.8% 24.4% 4.8% 19.6% 11.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.6 20.6%
6-14 0.4% 3.2% 1.1% 2.1% 12.7 0.0 0.0 0.4 2.2%
5-15 0.1% 3.1% 3.1% 15.0 0.0 0.1
4-16 0.0% 0.0 0.0
3-17 0.0% 0.0
2-18 0.0% 0.0
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 97.3% 13.8% 83.4% 3.7 16.5 18.1 18.2 14.1 10.8 8.2 4.6 2.7 1.6 1.2 0.9 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.7 96.8%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.2% 100.0% 1.1 92.0 8.0