Stetson
Atlantic Sun
2021-22 - 2022-23 - 2023-24
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Overall
Predictive Rating-1.7#203
Expected Predictive Rating+2.2#142
Pace61.1#347
Improvement+0.1#81

Offense
Total Offense+5.8#41
First Shot+6.1#37
After Offensive Rebound-0.3#204
Layup/Dunks+3.3#73
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.2#238
3 Pt Jumpshots+6.8#15
Freethrows-2.8#334
Improvement+0.4#7

Defense
Total Defense-7.5#344
First Shot+0.3#167
After Offensive Rebounds-7.8#363
Layups/Dunks+0.5#169
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.1#201
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.1#233
Freethrows+0.9#138
Improvement-0.3#314
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 5.5% 9.6% 4.9%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.6 13.8 14.8
.500 or above 45.4% 72.7% 41.7%
.500 or above in Conference 63.0% 77.7% 61.0%
Conference Champion 5.0% 9.3% 4.4%
Last Place in Conference 2.8% 1.0% 3.0%
First Four1.1% 0.7% 1.2%
First Round4.9% 9.2% 4.4%
Second Round0.3% 0.7% 0.2%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.2% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Florida (Away) - 11.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 2
Quad 21 - 31 - 5
Quad 34 - 55 - 10
Quad 48 - 413 - 14


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 07, 2022 188   @ Florida St. W 83-74 36%     1 - 0 +11.0 +18.5 -6.8
  Nov 14, 2022 187   @ South Florida W 68-67 35%     2 - 0 +3.2 +14.2 -10.8
  Nov 18, 2022 225   Rider W 78-68 57%     3 - 0 +6.5 +7.8 -0.6
  Nov 19, 2022 212   Niagara L 62-66 53%     3 - 1 -6.6 +0.4 -7.7
  Nov 27, 2022 195   @ Campbell L 85-87 OT 38%     3 - 2 -0.5 +12.8 -13.3
  Dec 04, 2022 67   @ Florida L 70-83 12%    
  Dec 14, 2022 81   @ College of Charleston L 76-87 15%    
  Dec 17, 2022 157   @ Ohio L 70-75 31%    
  Dec 21, 2022 75   @ Central Florida L 60-72 14%    
  Dec 30, 2022 163   @ Lipscomb L 75-80 32%    
  Jan 02, 2023 245   North Florida W 77-72 70%    
  Jan 05, 2023 136   Jacksonville L 64-65 46%    
  Jan 07, 2023 325   @ North Alabama W 77-71 70%    
  Jan 12, 2023 233   @ Bellarmine L 68-69 47%    
  Jan 14, 2023 247   @ Eastern Kentucky L 74-75 48%    
  Jan 19, 2023 215   Kennesaw St. W 75-71 64%    
  Jan 21, 2023 221   Jacksonville St. W 72-68 66%    
  Jan 26, 2023 126   @ Liberty L 66-74 25%    
  Jan 28, 2023 243   @ Queens L 74-75 49%    
  Feb 02, 2023 325   North Alabama W 80-68 85%    
  Feb 04, 2023 319   Central Arkansas W 84-73 84%    
  Feb 09, 2023 136   @ Jacksonville L 61-68 27%    
  Feb 11, 2023 245   @ North Florida L 74-75 48%    
  Feb 15, 2023 101   Florida Gulf Coast L 72-76 37%    
  Feb 18, 2023 101   @ Florida Gulf Coast L 69-79 20%    
  Feb 22, 2023 277   Austin Peay W 72-65 74%    
  Feb 24, 2023 163   Lipscomb W 78-77 52%    
Projected Record 13 - 14 9 - 9





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Atlantic Sun Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.9 1.5 1.6 0.7 0.2 0.0 5.0 1st
2nd 0.2 1.7 3.0 2.0 0.5 0.1 7.5 2nd
3rd 0.2 2.1 4.0 2.5 0.5 0.0 9.3 3rd
4th 0.1 1.7 4.9 3.1 0.5 0.0 10.3 4th
5th 0.1 1.1 4.9 4.0 0.6 0.0 10.7 5th
6th 0.0 0.5 4.0 4.5 1.2 0.0 10.2 6th
7th 0.2 2.3 5.2 1.7 0.1 0.0 9.5 7th
8th 0.0 0.1 1.4 4.7 2.7 0.2 9.1 8th
9th 0.0 0.6 3.5 3.4 0.5 0.0 8.0 9th
10th 0.0 0.2 1.9 3.5 0.8 0.0 6.5 10th
11th 0.1 1.3 2.8 1.3 0.1 5.6 11th
12th 0.1 0.8 1.9 1.4 0.1 0.0 4.3 12th
13th 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.2 0.7 0.2 2.7 13th
14th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.1 1.2 14th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.3 1.0 2.5 4.3 6.9 10.1 11.8 13.6 13.4 12.3 9.5 6.8 4.1 2.1 0.8 0.2 0.0 Total



Atlantic Sun Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
17-1 100.0% 0.2    0.2
16-2 93.1% 0.7    0.6 0.1 0.0
15-3 74.7% 1.6    1.0 0.5 0.1 0.0
14-4 36.5% 1.5    0.6 0.7 0.2 0.0
13-5 12.4% 0.9    0.1 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0
12-6 1.2% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0% 0.0    0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 5.0% 5.0 2.6 1.6 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.0% 81.0% 57.1% 23.8% 10.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 55.6%
17-1 0.2% 34.7% 34.7% 12.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2
16-2 0.8% 32.6% 32.6% 13.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.5
15-3 2.1% 21.5% 21.5% 13.3 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 1.6
14-4 4.1% 16.4% 16.4% 13.7 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.1 3.4
13-5 6.8% 11.9% 11.9% 14.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.2 0.0 6.0
12-6 9.5% 8.7% 8.7% 14.6 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.1 8.7
11-7 12.3% 6.8% 6.8% 15.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.2 11.5
10-8 13.4% 4.1% 4.1% 15.6 0.0 0.1 0.4 12.9
9-9 13.6% 3.0% 3.0% 15.9 0.0 0.4 13.2
8-10 11.8% 2.5% 2.5% 15.9 0.0 0.0 0.3 11.5
7-11 10.1% 1.5% 1.5% 16.0 0.2 9.9
6-12 6.9% 1.2% 1.2% 16.0 0.1 6.9
5-13 4.3% 0.6% 0.6% 16.0 0.0 4.2
4-14 2.5% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.0 2.5
3-15 1.0% 1.0
2-16 0.3% 1.4% 1.4% 16.0 0.0 0.3
1-17 0.1% 0.1
0-18 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 5.5% 5.5% 0.0% 14.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.9 1.4 1.4 1.6 94.5 0.0%