Pre-tourney Rankings
Michigan St.
Big Ten
2023-24
Overall
Predictive Rating+14.5#18
Expected Predictive Rating+11.0#49
Pace64.1#306
Improvement-2.3#286

Offense
Total Offense+5.5#53
First Shot+3.4#82
After Offensive Rebound+2.0#67
Layup/Dunks+2.0#95
2 Pt Jumpshots+5.5#12
3 Pt Jumpshots-4.5#315
Freethrows+0.5#142
Improvement-2.5#308

Defense
Total Defense+9.0#7
First Shot+8.3#7
After Offensive Rebounds+0.7#109
Layups/Dunks+8.0#7
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.4#292
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.4#168
Freethrows+1.3#90
Improvement+0.2#165
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% n/a n/a
#1 Seed 0.0% n/a n/a
Top 2 Seed 0.0% n/a n/a
Top 4 Seed 0.0% n/a n/a
Top 6 Seed 1.0% n/a n/a
NCAA Tourney Bid 70.6% n/a n/a
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 70.6% n/a n/a
Average Seed 9.5 n/a n/a
.500 or above 0.0% n/a n/a
.500 or above in Conference 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four23.3% n/a n/a
First Round61.7% n/a n/a
Second Round36.7% n/a n/a
Sweet Sixteen12.9% n/a n/a
Elite Eight6.0% n/a n/a
Final Four2.3% n/a n/a
Championship Game1.0% n/a n/a
National Champion0.3% n/a n/a

Projected Seeding 10 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a2 - 72 - 7
Quad 1b1 - 23 - 9
Quad 25 - 58 - 14
Quad 37 - 015 - 14
Quad 44 - 019 - 14


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 06, 2023 64   James Madison L 76-79 OT 79%     0 - 1 +3.2 -6.5 +10.1
  Nov 09, 2023 331   Southern Indiana W 74-51 99%     1 - 1 +9.0 -3.9 +13.1
  Nov 14, 2023 9   Duke L 65-74 40%     1 - 2 +8.1 +0.1 +7.8
  Nov 17, 2023 63   Butler W 74-54 78%     2 - 2 +26.4 +10.6 +17.6
  Nov 19, 2023 303   Alcorn St. W 81-49 98%     3 - 2 +21.5 +3.9 +19.4
  Nov 23, 2023 5   Arizona L 68-74 31%     3 - 3 +13.5 +6.0 +7.3
  Nov 28, 2023 259   Georgia Southern W 86-55 97%     4 - 3 +23.3 +2.8 +19.0
  Dec 05, 2023 19   Wisconsin L 57-70 62%     4 - 4 0 - 1 -1.6 +0.1 -4.5
  Dec 10, 2023 27   @ Nebraska L 70-77 46%     4 - 5 0 - 2 +8.6 +9.1 -0.9
  Dec 16, 2023 14   Baylor W 88-64 47%     5 - 5 +39.3 +18.5 +20.6
  Dec 18, 2023 142   Oakland W 79-62 92%     6 - 5 +15.9 +17.8 +0.8
  Dec 21, 2023 174   Stony Brook W 99-55 94%     7 - 5 +40.8 +15.2 +21.6
  Dec 30, 2023 46   Indiana St. W 87-75 73%     8 - 5 +20.2 +14.4 +5.7
  Jan 04, 2024 68   Penn St. W 92-61 81%     9 - 5 1 - 2 +36.2 +17.1 +17.5
  Jan 07, 2024 40   @ Northwestern L 74-88 52%     9 - 6 1 - 3 -0.1 +12.1 -13.3
  Jan 11, 2024 10   @ Illinois L 68-71 31%     9 - 7 1 - 4 +16.5 +3.4 +13.0
  Jan 14, 2024 96   Rutgers W 73-55 85%     10 - 7 2 - 4 +21.3 +16.5 +6.6
  Jan 18, 2024 69   Minnesota W 76-66 81%     11 - 7 3 - 4 +15.1 +3.9 +11.3
  Jan 21, 2024 60   @ Maryland W 61-59 60%     12 - 7 4 - 4 +13.9 +3.4 +10.6
  Jan 26, 2024 19   @ Wisconsin L 66-81 42%     12 - 8 4 - 5 +1.6 +6.7 -6.9
  Jan 30, 2024 117   Michigan W 81-62 90%     13 - 8 5 - 5 +19.7 +19.9 +2.7
  Feb 03, 2024 60   Maryland W 63-54 77%     14 - 8 6 - 5 +15.7 +5.3 +11.5
  Feb 06, 2024 69   @ Minnesota L 56-59 66%     14 - 9 6 - 6 +7.3 -3.6 +10.3
  Feb 10, 2024 10   Illinois W 88-80 51%     15 - 9 7 - 6 +22.3 +16.8 +5.6
  Feb 14, 2024 68   @ Penn St. W 80-72 65%     16 - 9 8 - 6 +18.4 +15.8 +2.9
  Feb 17, 2024 117   @ Michigan W 73-63 79%     17 - 9 9 - 6 +15.9 -3.2 +18.4
  Feb 20, 2024 49   Iowa L 71-78 74%     17 - 10 9 - 7 +0.8 +3.4 -3.1
  Feb 25, 2024 38   Ohio St. L 57-60 71%     17 - 11 9 - 8 +5.8 -5.5 +10.9
  Mar 02, 2024 4   @ Purdue L 74-80 21%     17 - 12 9 - 9 +16.8 +13.9 +2.6
  Mar 06, 2024 40   Northwestern W 53-49 71%     18 - 12 10 - 9 +12.7 -6.3 +19.9
  Mar 10, 2024 82   @ Indiana L 64-65 69%     18 - 13 10 - 10 +8.4 +0.1 +8.3
  Mar 14, 2024 69   Minnesota W 77-67 74%     19 - 13 +17.7 +12.9 +5.7
  Mar 15, 2024 4   Purdue L 62-67 29%     19 - 14 +15.2 +0.8 +14.1
  Mar 21, 2024 30   Mississippi St. W 68-66 57%    
Projected Record 20 - 14 10 - 10




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big Ten Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 4th
5th 5th
6th 100.0 100.0 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
13th 13th
14th 14th
Total 100.0 Total



Big Ten Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8
11-9
10-10 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8
11-9
10-10 100.0% 70.6% 70.6% 9.5 0.1 0.9 2.1 7.9 16.9 31.8 10.9 29.4 70.6%
9-11
8-12
7-13
6-14
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 70.6% 0.0% 70.6% 9.5 0.1 0.9 2.1 7.9 16.9 31.8 10.9 29.4 70.6%