Preseason Rankings
Southeastern
2023-24


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
7 Tennessee 86.7%   2   0 - 0 0 - 0 21 - 8 12 - 6 +16.3      +5.5 40 +10.8 2 64.0 284 0.0 1 0.0 1
12 Alabama 81.5%   3   0 - 0 0 - 0 20 - 10 11 - 7 +15.1      +8.2 14 +6.9 20 79.9 4 0.0 1 0.0 1
13 Kentucky 80.7%   3   0 - 0 0 - 0 22 - 9 11 - 7 +15.0      +8.7 9 +6.3 29 65.6 247 0.0 1 0.0 1
17 Arkansas 73.7%   4   0 - 0 0 - 0 20 - 9 11 - 7 +13.8      +6.9 25 +6.9 19 72.8 59 0.0 1 0.0 1
22 Texas A&M 68.5%   5   0 - 0 0 - 0 18 - 11 10 - 8 +13.1      +6.5 30 +6.6 23 65.7 241 0.0 1 0.0 1
23 Auburn 67.6%   6   0 - 0 0 - 0 20 - 10 10 - 8 +13.0      +6.8 26 +6.2 30 68.8 158 0.0 1 0.0 1
36 Florida 55.3%   8   0 - 0 0 - 0 19 - 11 9 - 9 +11.3      +4.9 51 +6.4 28 72.7 62 0.0 1 0.0 1
37 Mississippi St. 53.8%   8   0 - 0 0 - 0 19 - 11 9 - 9 +11.3      +2.9 94 +8.3 9 61.3 336 0.0 1 0.0 1
52 Missouri 41.4%   0 - 0 0 - 0 17 - 14 8 - 10 +9.6      +7.2 20 +2.4 102 71.8 85 0.0 1 0.0 1
56 LSU 35.8%   0 - 0 0 - 0 17 - 12 8 - 10 +9.2      +4.7 52 +4.5 58 65.0 266 0.0 1 0.0 1
60 Mississippi 37.8%   0 - 0 0 - 0 18 - 13 8 - 10 +9.0      +4.2 61 +4.8 51 65.6 248 0.0 1 0.0 1
73 Georgia 25.1%   0 - 0 0 - 0 16 - 14 7 - 11 +7.4      +4.0 66 +3.3 82 68.6 164 0.0 1 0.0 1
87 Vanderbilt 16.7%   0 - 0 0 - 0 14 - 16 6 - 12 +5.8      +4.2 60 +1.5 125 66.3 224 0.0 1 0.0 1
89 South Carolina 14.5%   0 - 0 0 - 0 15 - 15 6 - 12 +5.7      +2.3 106 +3.3 83 62.5 322 0.0 1 0.0 1





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th 13th 14th
Tennessee 4.0 25.8 16.4 12.7 10.1 8.2 7.0 5.4 4.2 3.5 2.4 1.9 1.3 0.7 0.4
Alabama 4.7 19.0 14.2 12.3 10.3 8.8 7.3 6.5 5.7 4.6 3.8 3.1 2.1 1.6 0.7
Kentucky 4.8 18.2 14.4 11.9 10.3 9.3 7.6 6.6 5.7 4.7 3.7 3.0 2.3 1.4 0.8
Arkansas 5.3 13.9 12.5 11.2 10.5 9.1 8.4 7.4 6.5 5.6 4.9 3.9 3.0 2.0 1.1
Texas A&M 5.8 11.7 11.0 10.1 9.4 9.2 8.6 7.9 7.2 6.3 5.6 4.6 3.9 2.9 1.6
Auburn 5.6 11.8 11.8 10.5 10.1 9.3 8.7 7.7 7.1 6.4 4.9 4.2 3.5 2.5 1.5
Florida 6.8 6.9 7.5 8.2 8.8 8.6 8.8 8.6 8.3 7.6 7.4 6.4 5.3 4.5 3.1
Mississippi St. 7.0 6.5 7.0 7.9 8.3 8.4 8.4 8.6 8.2 8.1 7.6 7.1 6.1 4.8 3.0
Missouri 7.9 3.9 5.0 5.8 6.3 7.6 7.9 8.5 8.5 8.6 8.4 8.8 8.1 7.0 5.6
LSU 8.2 3.4 4.4 5.6 5.9 6.8 7.2 8.0 8.4 8.9 9.1 8.9 8.7 8.0 6.6
Mississippi 8.3 3.0 4.2 5.0 6.0 7.1 7.2 8.1 8.5 9.0 9.3 9.1 9.0 8.2 6.4
Georgia 9.3 1.7 2.9 3.5 4.3 5.0 5.9 6.6 7.8 8.4 9.4 10.4 11.4 11.6 11.2
Vanderbilt 10.6 0.7 1.1 1.8 2.4 3.0 3.8 5.0 6.0 7.0 8.8 11.0 13.4 16.8 19.3
South Carolina 10.3 0.8 1.4 2.0 2.6 3.7 4.2 5.6 6.8 8.0 9.7 10.9 12.5 15.1 16.8




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0
Tennessee 12 - 6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.2 2.3 3.6 5.2 7.5 9.3 11.3 12.3 12.5 11.5 10.2 6.9 3.8 1.3
Alabama 11 - 7 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 1.4 2.3 3.5 5.4 7.2 8.8 10.1 11.4 11.9 11.6 9.6 7.6 4.9 2.6 0.8
Kentucky 11 - 7 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 1.2 2.3 3.7 5.4 7.1 8.8 10.9 11.6 11.8 11.2 9.9 7.5 4.4 2.5 0.7
Arkansas 11 - 7 0.0 0.2 0.3 1.0 1.8 3.0 4.7 6.8 8.0 10.3 11.3 11.7 11.3 10.1 8.0 6.2 3.4 1.5 0.5
Texas A&M 10 - 8 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.4 2.6 4.0 5.5 7.6 9.1 10.6 11.3 11.3 10.6 9.0 6.9 4.9 2.8 1.3 0.3
Auburn 10 - 8 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.2 2.2 3.5 5.0 7.1 9.4 10.4 11.6 11.3 10.9 9.4 7.5 5.2 2.9 1.3 0.3
Florida 9 - 9 0.1 0.5 1.1 2.4 3.9 5.6 7.7 9.6 10.9 11.4 11.5 10.3 8.7 6.5 4.7 3.0 1.5 0.5 0.1
Mississippi St. 9 - 9 0.1 0.5 1.2 2.4 4.4 6.3 8.6 9.6 11.0 11.3 11.1 10.0 8.4 6.0 4.2 2.6 1.5 0.5 0.1
Missouri 8 - 10 0.2 0.9 2.2 4.1 6.1 8.4 10.1 11.0 11.4 11.1 10.2 8.1 6.2 4.4 2.8 1.6 0.7 0.3 0.0
LSU 8 - 10 0.3 1.1 2.6 4.8 6.8 9.4 10.2 11.2 11.5 10.8 9.0 7.7 5.7 4.1 2.5 1.4 0.6 0.2 0.0
Mississippi 8 - 10 0.3 1.2 2.8 4.6 7.0 9.1 10.5 11.6 11.8 10.7 9.2 7.6 5.4 3.8 2.3 1.2 0.6 0.2 0.0
Georgia 7 - 11 0.8 2.4 4.9 7.2 9.6 11.2 11.8 11.8 10.4 8.8 7.1 5.3 3.8 2.5 1.4 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.0
Vanderbilt 6 - 12 1.8 4.8 8.3 11.2 12.7 12.9 12.0 10.4 8.4 6.2 4.6 3.0 1.7 1.0 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
South Carolina 6 - 12 1.3 3.9 7.2 10.0 11.6 12.6 12.5 11.4 9.3 7.2 5.2 3.6 2.0 1.3 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Tennessee 25.8% 17.1 6.6 1.6 0.3 0.0 0.0
Alabama 19.0% 12.3 4.8 1.5 0.3 0.0 0.0
Kentucky 18.2% 11.5 4.9 1.4 0.3 0.0 0.0
Arkansas 13.9% 8.4 4.0 1.3 0.3 0.0 0.0
Texas A&M 11.7% 6.9 3.4 1.1 0.2 0.0 0.0
Auburn 11.8% 7.0 3.4 1.2 0.2 0.0 0.0
Florida 6.9% 3.9 2.1 0.7 0.2 0.0 0.0
Mississippi St. 6.5% 3.6 1.9 0.7 0.2 0.0 0.0
Missouri 3.9% 2.1 1.2 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0
LSU 3.4% 1.8 1.1 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0
Mississippi 3.0% 1.5 1.0 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0
Georgia 1.7% 0.9 0.6 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
Vanderbilt 0.7% 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
South Carolina 0.8% 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Tennessee 86.7% 15.6% 71.1% 2   17.1 14.4 11.6 9.7 8.1 6.6 5.8 4.4 3.6 2.9 2.1 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 13.3 84.2%
Alabama 81.5% 13.0% 68.5% 3   13.9 13.0 11.3 9.2 8.0 6.8 5.2 4.1 3.1 3.1 2.8 0.5 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 18.5 78.7%
Kentucky 80.7% 12.2% 68.5% 3   12.6 11.6 10.2 8.7 8.0 7.1 6.2 5.2 4.2 3.8 2.5 0.4 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 19.3 78.1%
Arkansas 73.7% 10.1% 63.6% 4   8.0 8.8 8.6 8.4 7.5 7.1 6.5 5.4 4.7 4.5 3.2 0.5 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 26.3 70.7%
Texas A&M 68.5% 9.1% 59.4% 5   6.4 7.7 8.2 7.5 7.2 7.1 6.2 5.1 4.4 4.2 3.4 0.8 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 31.5 65.3%
Auburn 67.6% 8.7% 58.9% 6   5.7 6.8 7.3 6.7 6.8 6.6 6.8 6.2 5.4 4.9 3.5 0.5 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 32.4 64.5%
Florida 55.3% 6.3% 49.0% 8   2.8 3.8 4.7 5.3 5.2 5.9 5.7 6.2 5.5 5.4 3.7 0.6 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 44.7 52.3%
Mississippi St. 53.8% 6.2% 47.6% 8   2.8 3.6 4.6 4.7 5.3 5.7 6.2 6.1 5.5 5.0 3.3 0.6 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 46.2 50.8%
Missouri 41.4% 4.1% 37.3% 1.3 2.0 2.8 3.2 3.9 4.4 4.7 5.1 4.7 4.7 3.5 0.7 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 58.6 38.9%
LSU 35.8% 4.2% 31.6% 1.0 1.6 2.1 2.5 3.1 3.6 4.1 4.6 4.3 4.6 3.3 0.6 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 64.2 33.0%
Mississippi 37.8% 3.9% 33.9% 0.9 1.5 2.4 2.7 3.3 3.7 4.3 4.5 4.7 4.9 3.7 0.6 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 62.2 35.3%
Georgia 25.1% 2.7% 22.4% 0.4 0.6 1.2 1.5 1.9 2.3 2.9 3.4 3.4 3.8 2.8 0.5 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 74.9 23.0%
Vanderbilt 16.7% 2.1% 14.6% 0.1 0.3 0.7 0.7 1.2 1.4 1.7 2.3 2.3 2.6 2.1 0.5 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 83.3 14.9%
South Carolina 14.5% 1.9% 12.6% 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.6 0.8 1.2 1.4 2.0 2.1 2.6 2.1 0.4 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 85.5 12.9%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Tennessee 86.7% 2.7% 85.4% 69.6% 44.5% 25.7% 14.4% 7.7% 4.1%
Alabama 81.5% 3.5% 79.9% 63.3% 37.9% 20.9% 11.1% 5.7% 2.9%
Kentucky 80.7% 3.1% 79.3% 61.4% 35.8% 19.5% 10.5% 5.5% 2.8%
Arkansas 73.7% 4.0% 71.8% 53.0% 29.3% 15.1% 7.7% 3.6% 1.7%
Texas A&M 68.5% 4.4% 66.4% 47.9% 25.7% 13.0% 6.3% 2.9% 1.4%
Auburn 67.6% 4.2% 65.5% 46.6% 24.3% 12.3% 6.1% 2.6% 1.2%
Florida 55.3% 4.7% 53.0% 34.9% 16.5% 7.6% 3.5% 1.5% 0.7%
Mississippi St. 53.8% 4.0% 51.8% 33.9% 16.1% 7.4% 3.3% 1.5% 0.6%
Missouri 41.4% 4.5% 39.2% 23.6% 10.0% 4.3% 1.8% 0.8% 0.3%
LSU 35.8% 4.0% 33.8% 20.2% 8.7% 3.9% 1.6% 0.7% 0.3%
Mississippi 37.8% 4.7% 35.4% 20.6% 8.5% 3.6% 1.4% 0.6% 0.2%
Georgia 25.1% 3.6% 23.3% 12.8% 4.9% 2.0% 0.8% 0.3% 0.1%
Vanderbilt 16.7% 2.8% 15.2% 7.5% 2.7% 1.0% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0%
South Carolina 14.5% 2.7% 13.1% 6.6% 2.5% 1.0% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 7.4 0.0 0.1 0.9 5.4 17.3 29.6 28.1 14.3 3.9 0.5 0.0
1st Round 100.0% 7.1 0.0 0.1 1.5 7.6 21.4 30.9 24.9 10.8 2.5 0.2 0.0
2nd Round 100.0% 5.0 0.0 0.3 2.5 9.8 22.3 29.0 22.8 10.2 2.6 0.4 0.0
Sweet Sixteen 97.7% 2.7 2.3 13.9 29.2 30.7 17.6 5.1 1.0 0.1 0.0
Elite Eight 81.9% 1.4 18.1 40.0 30.1 10.2 1.5 0.2 0.0
Final Four 55.1% 0.7 44.9 42.2 11.8 1.1 0.0
Final Game 31.2% 0.3 68.8 28.8 2.4
Champion 16.4% 0.2 83.6 16.4