Preseason Rankings
Texas A&M
Southeastern
2023-24
Overall
Predictive Rating+13.1#22
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace65.7#241
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+6.5#30
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+6.6#23
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 1.6% 1.6% 0.0%
#1 Seed 6.4% 6.5% 0.6%
Top 2 Seed 14.1% 14.3% 3.0%
Top 4 Seed 29.8% 30.1% 9.1%
Top 6 Seed 44.0% 44.4% 15.1%
NCAA Tourney Bid 68.5% 69.0% 33.7%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 65.3% 65.9% 30.3%
Average Seed 5.5 5.4 7.1
.500 or above 80.0% 80.6% 42.5%
.500 or above in Conference 68.9% 69.4% 41.0%
Conference Champion 11.7% 11.8% 2.5%
Last Place in Conference 3.1% 3.0% 9.2%
First Four4.4% 4.4% 5.5%
First Round66.4% 67.0% 31.8%
Second Round47.9% 48.4% 18.9%
Sweet Sixteen25.7% 26.0% 6.7%
Elite Eight13.0% 13.2% 3.4%
Final Four6.3% 6.4% 1.6%
Championship Game2.9% 2.9% 0.5%
National Champion1.4% 1.4% 0.3%

Next Game: Texas A&M - Commerce (Home) - 98.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 5 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a2 - 52 - 5
Quad 1b3 - 35 - 8
Quad 25 - 210 - 10
Quad 34 - 114 - 11
Quad 44 - 018 - 11


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 06, 2023 291   Texas A&M - Commerce W 80-57 98%    
  Nov 10, 2023 38   @ Ohio St. L 69-70 46%    
  Nov 14, 2023 101   @ SMU W 74-68 70%    
  Nov 17, 2023 175   Oral Roberts W 83-67 93%    
  Nov 23, 2023 76   Penn St. W 70-64 71%    
  Nov 29, 2023 34   @ Virginia L 61-62 45%    
  Dec 06, 2023 109   DePaul W 78-66 86%    
  Dec 10, 2023 27   Memphis W 77-73 62%    
  Dec 16, 2023 4   Houston L 63-67 38%    
  Dec 22, 2023 360   Houston Christian W 91-60 99.6%   
  Dec 30, 2023 326   Prairie View W 81-55 99%    
  Jan 06, 2024 56   LSU W 72-65 72%    
  Jan 09, 2024 23   @ Auburn L 69-72 40%    
  Jan 13, 2024 13   Kentucky W 70-69 54%    
  Jan 16, 2024 17   @ Arkansas L 70-74 38%    
  Jan 20, 2024 56   @ LSU W 69-68 53%    
  Jan 23, 2024 52   Missouri W 77-70 71%    
  Jan 27, 2024 60   Mississippi W 72-65 73%    
  Feb 03, 2024 36   Florida W 74-69 66%    
  Feb 07, 2024 52   @ Missouri W 74-73 52%    
  Feb 10, 2024 7   Tennessee L 64-65 49%    
  Feb 13, 2024 87   @ Vanderbilt W 72-68 64%    
  Feb 17, 2024 12   @ Alabama L 73-78 34%    
  Feb 20, 2024 17   Arkansas W 73-71 57%    
  Feb 24, 2024 7   @ Tennessee L 62-68 31%    
  Feb 28, 2024 89   South Carolina W 71-61 80%    
  Mar 02, 2024 73   @ Georgia W 72-69 59%    
  Mar 06, 2024 37   Mississippi St. W 66-61 65%    
  Mar 09, 2024 60   @ Mississippi W 69-68 54%    
Projected Record 18 - 11 10 - 8




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southeastern Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 1.1 2.8 3.5 2.6 1.3 0.3 11.7 1st
2nd 0.0 0.3 1.8 4.1 3.4 1.3 0.2 0.0 11.0 2nd
3rd 0.1 1.7 4.3 3.1 0.7 0.1 10.1 3rd
4th 0.0 1.2 4.1 3.4 0.7 0.0 0.0 9.4 4th
5th 0.0 0.8 3.7 3.9 0.8 0.0 9.2 5th
6th 0.0 0.3 2.7 4.3 1.3 0.1 8.6 6th
7th 0.1 1.8 4.2 1.8 0.1 7.9 7th
8th 0.0 1.0 3.6 2.3 0.3 0.0 7.2 8th
9th 0.0 0.5 2.7 2.6 0.5 0.0 6.3 9th
10th 0.0 0.3 1.8 2.7 0.8 0.0 5.6 10th
11th 0.0 0.2 1.1 2.2 1.0 0.1 4.6 11th
12th 0.0 0.2 1.0 1.7 0.9 0.1 0.0 3.9 12th
13th 0.0 0.2 0.7 1.1 0.8 0.1 0.0 2.9 13th
14th 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.1 0.0 1.6 14th
Total 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.4 2.6 4.0 5.5 7.6 9.1 10.6 11.3 11.3 10.6 9.0 6.9 4.9 2.8 1.3 0.3 Total



Southeastern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.3    0.3
17-1 99.0% 1.3    1.2 0.1
16-2 92.6% 2.6    2.1 0.5 0.0
15-3 71.2% 3.5    2.2 1.1 0.2 0.0
14-4 39.8% 2.8    1.0 1.3 0.4 0.1
13-5 12.3% 1.1    0.2 0.4 0.4 0.1 0.0
12-6 2.0% 0.2    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 11.7% 11.7 6.9 3.4 1.1 0.2 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.3% 100.0% 34.9% 65.1% 1.1 0.3 0.0 0.0 100.0%
17-1 1.3% 100.0% 34.2% 65.8% 1.3 0.9 0.3 0.0 100.0%
16-2 2.8% 100.0% 24.5% 75.5% 1.5 1.6 0.9 0.2 0.1 0.0 100.0%
15-3 4.9% 100.0% 19.5% 80.5% 1.9 1.8 1.9 0.9 0.3 0.0 0.0 100.0%
14-4 6.9% 99.8% 17.0% 82.8% 2.6 1.2 2.3 2.0 0.9 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.8%
13-5 9.0% 99.8% 14.0% 85.8% 3.6 0.5 1.6 2.6 2.1 1.2 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.8%
12-6 10.6% 99.4% 11.4% 88.0% 4.8 0.1 0.5 1.8 2.3 2.3 1.8 0.9 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.1 99.3%
11-7 11.3% 96.2% 8.7% 87.5% 6.1 0.0 0.1 0.7 1.4 2.1 2.3 1.8 1.2 0.7 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.4 95.8%
10-8 11.3% 87.6% 6.7% 80.8% 7.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.9 1.6 2.1 1.7 1.4 1.1 0.6 0.1 0.0 1.4 86.7%
9-9 10.6% 67.9% 5.9% 62.0% 8.8 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.0 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.1 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 3.4 65.9%
8-10 9.1% 36.6% 3.7% 32.9% 10.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.9 1.0 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 5.7 34.2%
7-11 7.6% 15.3% 3.7% 11.5% 11.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 6.5 12.0%
6-12 5.5% 5.2% 3.0% 2.2% 13.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 5.3 2.3%
5-13 4.0% 1.7% 1.6% 0.1% 15.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 3.9 0.1%
4-14 2.6% 1.2% 1.2% 15.9 0.0 0.0 2.6
3-15 1.4% 1.1% 1.1% 16.0 0.0 1.4
2-16 0.6% 0.6
1-17 0.2% 2.3% 2.3% 16.0 0.0 0.2
0-18 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 68.5% 9.1% 59.4% 5.5 6.4 7.7 8.2 7.5 7.2 7.1 6.2 5.1 4.4 4.2 3.4 0.8 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 31.5 65.3%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.1% 100.0% 1.0 96.3 3.7