Preseason Rankings
Kentucky
Southeastern
2023-24
Overall
Predictive Rating+15.0#13
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace65.6#247
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+8.7#9
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+6.3#29
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 3.3% 3.4% 1.3%
#1 Seed 12.6% 13.0% 3.5%
Top 2 Seed 24.1% 25.0% 7.2%
Top 4 Seed 43.1% 44.3% 18.8%
Top 6 Seed 58.2% 59.4% 32.4%
NCAA Tourney Bid 80.7% 81.8% 59.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 78.1% 79.2% 56.7%
Average Seed 4.7 4.7 6.1
.500 or above 92.3% 93.0% 77.2%
.500 or above in Conference 79.3% 80.0% 64.3%
Conference Champion 18.2% 18.7% 8.7%
Last Place in Conference 1.6% 1.5% 4.0%
First Four3.1% 3.0% 4.3%
First Round79.3% 80.4% 57.3%
Second Round61.4% 62.5% 37.0%
Sweet Sixteen35.8% 36.7% 18.6%
Elite Eight19.5% 20.0% 8.6%
Final Four10.5% 10.8% 3.6%
Championship Game5.5% 5.7% 2.1%
National Champion2.8% 2.9% 1.1%

Next Game: New Mexico St. (Home) - 95.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 3 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a3 - 53 - 5
Quad 1b3 - 26 - 7
Quad 25 - 211 - 9
Quad 35 - 117 - 9
Quad 45 - 022 - 9


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 06, 2023 167   New Mexico St. W 82-64 95%    
  Nov 10, 2023 291   Texas A&M - Commerce W 82-57 99%    
  Nov 14, 2023 1   Kansas L 71-75 35%    
  Nov 17, 2023 350   Stonehill W 85-54 99.7%   
  Nov 20, 2023 136   Saint Joseph's W 81-65 93%    
  Nov 24, 2023 135   Marshall W 85-69 92%    
  Nov 28, 2023 30   Miami (FL) W 77-71 70%    
  Dec 02, 2023 140   UNC Wilmington W 76-60 92%    
  Dec 09, 2023 203   Penn W 80-63 93%    
  Dec 16, 2023 16   North Carolina W 74-73 54%    
  Dec 21, 2023 124   @ Louisville W 75-66 79%    
  Dec 29, 2023 209   Illinois St. W 79-59 96%    
  Jan 06, 2024 36   @ Florida W 73-72 52%    
  Jan 09, 2024 52   Missouri W 79-71 76%    
  Jan 13, 2024 22   @ Texas A&M L 69-70 46%    
  Jan 17, 2024 37   Mississippi St. W 68-61 71%    
  Jan 20, 2024 73   Georgia W 77-66 81%    
  Jan 23, 2024 89   @ South Carolina W 70-64 71%    
  Jan 27, 2024 17   @ Arkansas L 72-74 44%    
  Jan 31, 2024 36   Florida W 76-69 71%    
  Feb 03, 2024 7   Tennessee W 67-65 55%    
  Feb 06, 2024 87   @ Vanderbilt W 74-68 70%    
  Feb 10, 2024 10   Gonzaga W 78-75 58%    
  Feb 13, 2024 60   Mississippi W 74-65 77%    
  Feb 17, 2024 23   @ Auburn L 71-72 47%    
  Feb 21, 2024 56   @ LSU W 71-68 59%    
  Feb 24, 2024 12   Alabama W 78-75 59%    
  Feb 27, 2024 37   @ Mississippi St. W 65-64 52%    
  Mar 02, 2024 17   Arkansas W 75-71 63%    
  Mar 06, 2024 87   Vanderbilt W 77-65 84%    
  Mar 09, 2024 7   @ Tennessee L 64-68 37%    
Projected Record 22 - 9 11 - 7




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southeastern Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 1.4 4.0 5.3 4.0 2.5 0.7 18.2 1st
2nd 0.0 0.3 2.0 4.9 4.8 2.1 0.4 0.0 14.4 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.2 1.8 4.9 3.9 1.1 0.1 0.0 11.9 3rd
4th 0.0 1.2 4.4 3.7 1.0 0.0 10.3 4th
5th 0.0 0.0 0.6 3.9 3.8 1.0 0.0 9.3 5th
6th 0.0 0.2 2.2 3.9 1.2 0.1 7.6 6th
7th 0.1 1.4 3.5 1.5 0.1 0.0 6.6 7th
8th 0.0 0.6 2.8 2.0 0.3 0.0 5.7 8th
9th 0.0 0.3 2.0 2.1 0.3 0.0 4.7 9th
10th 0.2 1.1 1.9 0.5 0.0 3.7 10th
11th 0.1 0.7 1.4 0.7 0.1 3.0 11th
12th 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.0 0.7 0.1 2.3 12th
13th 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.4 0.1 0.0 1.4 13th
14th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.8 14th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 1.2 2.3 3.7 5.4 7.1 8.8 10.9 11.6 11.8 11.2 9.9 7.5 4.4 2.5 0.7 Total



Southeastern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.7    0.7
17-1 99.0% 2.5    2.4 0.1
16-2 91.0% 4.0    3.3 0.7 0.0
15-3 71.6% 5.3    3.3 1.8 0.3 0.0
14-4 40.4% 4.0    1.6 1.7 0.7 0.1 0.0
13-5 12.6% 1.4    0.3 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.0
12-6 2.1% 0.2    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 18.2% 18.2 11.5 4.9 1.4 0.3 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.7% 100.0% 36.1% 63.9% 1.1 0.6 0.1 0.0 100.0%
17-1 2.5% 100.0% 32.4% 67.6% 1.2 2.0 0.5 0.0 0.0 100.0%
16-2 4.4% 100.0% 28.9% 71.1% 1.4 2.9 1.3 0.2 0.0 0.0 100.0%
15-3 7.5% 100.0% 22.9% 77.1% 1.8 3.5 2.6 1.0 0.3 0.1 0.0 100.0%
14-4 9.9% 100.0% 19.1% 80.9% 2.4 2.4 3.6 2.3 1.1 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
13-5 11.2% 100.0% 15.5% 84.5% 3.3 1.0 2.4 3.2 2.5 1.3 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
12-6 11.8% 99.4% 11.6% 87.8% 4.5 0.2 0.9 2.4 2.7 2.4 1.7 1.0 0.4 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 99.3%
11-7 11.6% 97.2% 9.5% 87.7% 5.9 0.0 0.2 0.8 1.6 2.5 2.3 1.7 1.1 0.6 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.3 96.9%
10-8 10.9% 91.0% 7.7% 83.3% 7.2 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.1 1.8 2.1 1.7 1.4 0.7 0.3 0.0 1.0 90.2%
9-9 8.8% 76.9% 5.9% 71.0% 8.4 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 1.1 1.4 1.4 1.3 0.6 0.1 0.0 2.0 75.5%
8-10 7.1% 49.2% 4.8% 44.4% 9.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.4 0.6 1.0 0.9 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 3.6 46.6%
7-11 5.4% 19.1% 3.3% 15.8% 10.7 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 4.4 16.3%
6-12 3.7% 7.3% 3.3% 4.0% 12.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 3.4 4.2%
5-13 2.3% 2.2% 2.1% 0.0% 14.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.3 0.0%
4-14 1.2% 2.4% 2.4% 15.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.2
3-15 0.6% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 0.6
2-16 0.3% 1.8% 1.8% 16.0 0.0 0.2
1-17 0.1% 0.1
0-18 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 80.7% 12.2% 68.5% 4.7 12.6 11.6 10.2 8.7 8.0 7.1 6.2 5.2 4.2 3.8 2.5 0.4 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 19.3 78.1%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.3% 100.0% 1.1 91.7 8.3