Preseason Rankings
Southwestern Athletic
2023-24


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
222 Texas Southern 30.0%   16   0 - 0 0 - 0 15 - 13 13 - 5 -3.1      -2.4 255 -0.6 193 71.9 77 0.0 1 0.0 1
245 Jackson St. 20.2%   0 - 0 0 - 0 15 - 16 12 - 6 -4.6      -3.4 281 -1.2 213 69.9 132 0.0 1 0.0 1
253 Grambling St. 19.1%   0 - 0 0 - 0 14 - 14 12 - 6 -4.9      -4.9 317 +0.1 168 65.8 238 0.0 1 0.0 1
281 Alcorn St. 11.4%   0 - 0 0 - 0 12 - 18 11 - 7 -6.6      -3.5 283 -3.1 269 68.1 175 0.0 1 0.0 1
321 Southern 5.2%   0 - 0 0 - 0 11 - 17 9 - 9 -9.0      -6.5 344 -2.5 253 76.1 26 0.0 1 0.0 1
326 Prairie View 4.5%   0 - 0 0 - 0 10 - 19 9 - 9 -9.6      -7.0 351 -2.6 255 68.8 157 0.0 1 0.0 1
338 Alabama A&M 2.6%   0 - 0 0 - 0 10 - 21 9 - 9 -10.9      -7.4 353 -3.5 280 70.3 124 0.0 1 0.0 1
343 Florida A&M 2.1%   0 - 0 0 - 0 8 - 20 8 - 10 -11.7      -8.7 356 -3.0 266 63.6 295 0.0 1 0.0 1
346 Arkansas Pine Bluff 1.8%   0 - 0 0 - 0 9 - 18 8 - 10 -12.0      -6.3 341 -5.6 335 72.8 58 0.0 1 0.0 1
349 Bethune-Cookman 1.6%   0 - 0 0 - 0 10 - 19 7 - 11 -12.4      -6.2 339 -6.2 347 71.3 98 0.0 1 0.0 1
353 Alabama St. 1.2%   0 - 0 0 - 0 8 - 20 7 - 11 -12.8      -7.5 354 -5.3 330 66.4 217 0.0 1 0.0 1
361 Mississippi Valley 0.1%   0 - 0 0 - 0 5 - 26 4 - 14 -17.9      -10.8 361 -7.1 351 68.1 174 0.0 1 0.0 1





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th
Texas Southern 3.1 32.8 19.3 13.9 10.3 7.7 5.5 4.0 2.7 1.9 1.1 0.5 0.2
Jackson St. 3.6 25.7 19.2 14.5 11.1 8.4 6.5 5.2 3.5 2.7 1.7 1.0 0.4
Grambling St. 3.8 22.0 18.4 14.6 11.9 9.4 7.1 5.7 4.4 2.9 2.1 1.1 0.5
Alcorn St. 4.5 15.6 14.4 13.6 12.4 10.5 9.0 7.4 5.8 4.8 3.4 2.2 1.0
Southern 5.9 6.8 8.9 10.1 10.9 10.8 10.7 10.3 9.1 8.1 6.6 5.0 2.6
Prairie View 6.4 5.5 6.9 8.4 9.4 10.3 11.0 10.5 10.4 9.5 8.4 6.0 3.6
Alabama A&M 6.4 5.1 6.9 8.8 10.0 10.3 10.8 10.1 10.1 9.1 8.0 6.5 4.2
Florida A&M 7.3 3.2 4.7 6.0 7.1 8.3 9.3 10.1 11.1 11.4 11.1 10.6 7.2
Arkansas Pine Bluff 7.4 2.7 4.2 5.5 7.3 8.4 9.9 10.6 11.4 11.7 11.2 10.0 7.1
Bethune-Cookman 7.7 2.3 3.8 4.7 6.2 7.4 8.8 9.9 10.8 11.7 12.8 12.2 9.4
Alabama St. 7.6 2.1 3.8 5.4 6.5 8.1 8.9 10.5 11.1 11.7 11.7 11.3 9.1
Mississippi Valley 10.1 0.2 0.4 0.8 1.4 2.2 3.3 4.8 6.5 9.3 14.3 21.5 35.3




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0
Texas Southern 13 - 5 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.8 1.5 2.7 4.1 5.9 7.8 10.3 11.7 13.1 13.2 11.7 9.1 5.5 2.0
Jackson St. 12 - 6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 1.3 2.3 3.5 5.4 7.0 9.1 10.9 12.2 12.6 12.2 9.8 7.3 4.1 1.4
Grambling St. 12 - 6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.8 1.5 2.6 4.3 5.9 7.7 9.9 11.5 12.4 12.4 11.2 8.7 6.3 3.2 1.0
Alcorn St. 11 - 7 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.6 2.7 4.3 6.1 8.0 9.6 11.0 11.8 11.6 10.6 8.7 6.4 4.1 1.9 0.6
Southern 9 - 9 0.1 0.3 1.1 2.0 3.7 5.4 7.7 9.4 11.0 11.6 11.5 10.4 9.1 6.9 4.7 2.9 1.5 0.5 0.1
Prairie View 9 - 9 0.1 0.6 1.4 2.9 4.8 6.9 8.9 10.9 11.3 11.7 10.9 9.5 7.5 5.5 3.5 2.2 1.0 0.4 0.1
Alabama A&M 9 - 9 0.1 0.6 1.5 3.0 4.7 6.8 8.9 10.5 11.1 11.6 10.7 9.6 7.6 5.6 3.8 2.2 1.1 0.3 0.1
Florida A&M 8 - 10 0.4 1.5 3.2 5.2 7.7 9.5 10.8 11.5 11.3 10.1 8.8 6.9 5.0 3.8 2.3 1.2 0.5 0.2 0.0
Arkansas Pine Bluff 8 - 10 0.3 1.2 2.9 5.2 7.4 10.0 11.1 12.0 11.7 10.6 8.9 6.8 4.9 3.4 1.9 1.0 0.4 0.1 0.0
Bethune-Cookman 7 - 11 0.6 2.1 4.2 6.7 8.8 10.3 11.4 11.7 10.8 9.6 7.8 5.8 4.2 2.8 1.7 0.8 0.4 0.1 0.0
Alabama St. 7 - 11 0.5 1.6 3.6 6.1 8.1 10.2 11.7 11.8 11.0 10.1 8.1 6.5 4.6 3.0 1.7 0.9 0.4 0.1 0.0
Mississippi Valley 4 - 14 4.3 9.2 13.6 15.2 14.8 12.5 10.2 7.6 5.0 3.4 2.1 1.1 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Texas Southern 32.8% 23.2 7.5 1.8 0.2 0.0 0.0
Jackson St. 25.7% 17.3 6.6 1.5 0.2 0.0 0.0
Grambling St. 22.0% 14.3 6.0 1.4 0.2 0.0 0.0
Alcorn St. 15.6% 9.8 4.5 1.2 0.2 0.0 0.0
Southern 6.8% 3.9 2.1 0.7 0.1 0.0 0.0
Prairie View 5.5% 3.0 1.9 0.5 0.1 0.0
Alabama A&M 5.1% 2.8 1.7 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0
Florida A&M 3.2% 1.7 1.1 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0
Arkansas Pine Bluff 2.7% 1.4 0.8 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0
Bethune-Cookman 2.3% 1.3 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.0
Alabama St. 2.1% 1.0 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.0
Mississippi Valley 0.2% 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Texas Southern 30.0% 30.0% 0.0% 16   0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.6 2.4 5.4 9.0 12.4 70.0 0.0%
Jackson St. 20.2% 20.2% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.3 1.1 3.2 5.4 10.1 79.8 0.0%
Grambling St. 19.1% 19.1% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.9 2.6 5.1 10.1 80.9 0.0%
Alcorn St. 11.4% 11.4% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.2 2.7 7.1 88.6 0.0%
Southern 5.2% 5.2% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.3 1.2 3.6 94.8 0.0%
Prairie View 4.5% 4.5% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.8 3.4 95.5 0.0%
Alabama A&M 2.6% 2.6% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 2.1 97.4 0.0%
Florida A&M 2.1% 2.1% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.6 97.9 0.0%
Arkansas Pine Bluff 1.8% 1.8% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.3 1.5 98.2 0.0%
Bethune-Cookman 1.6% 1.6% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 1.3 98.4 0.0%
Alabama St. 1.2% 1.2% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.2 1.0 98.8 0.0%
Mississippi Valley 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 99.9 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Texas Southern 30.0% 6.7% 26.6% 1.5% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Jackson St. 20.2% 6.0% 17.3% 0.8% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Grambling St. 19.1% 6.1% 15.9% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Alcorn St. 11.4% 5.2% 8.8% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Southern 5.2% 2.5% 3.8% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Prairie View 4.5% 2.5% 3.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Alabama A&M 2.6% 1.5% 1.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Florida A&M 2.1% 1.3% 1.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Arkansas Pine Bluff 1.8% 1.1% 1.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Bethune-Cookman 1.6% 0.9% 1.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Alabama St. 1.2% 0.7% 0.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Mississippi Valley 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.0 100.0 0.0
1st Round 81.9% 0.8 18.1 81.9
2nd Round 3.5% 0.0 96.5 3.5
Sweet Sixteen 0.6% 0.0 99.4 0.6
Elite Eight 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0
Final Four 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0
Final Game 0.0% 0.0 100.0
Champion 0.0% 0.0 100.0