Preseason Rankings
Alabama St.
Southwestern Athletic
2023-24
Overall
Predictive Rating-12.8#353
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace66.4#217
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense-7.5#354
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense-5.3#330
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 1.2% 4.3% 1.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.8 15.5 15.8
.500 or above 9.1% 33.2% 8.8%
.500 or above in Conference 35.4% 62.4% 35.2%
Conference Champion 2.1% 6.5% 2.0%
Last Place in Conference 14.5% 7.0% 14.5%
First Four0.7% 1.5% 0.7%
First Round0.8% 3.6% 0.7%
Second Round0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Mississippi (Away) - 1.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 4
Quad 20 - 20 - 6
Quad 30 - 30 - 9
Quad 48 - 108 - 20


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 06, 2023 60   @ Mississippi L 55-80 1%    
  Nov 10, 2023 42   @ Iowa L 62-89 1%    
  Nov 17, 2023 27   @ Memphis L 60-88 1%    
  Nov 22, 2023 165   @ Samford L 63-79 7%    
  Nov 24, 2023 352   N.C. A&T L 70-71 49%    
  Nov 25, 2023 330   Merrimack L 61-64 39%    
  Dec 13, 2023 56   @ LSU L 55-80 1%    
  Dec 19, 2023 18   USC L 58-82 2%    
  Dec 22, 2023 23   @ Auburn L 55-84 1%    
  Dec 29, 2023 145   @ South Florida L 61-78 7%    
  Jan 06, 2024 346   @ Arkansas Pine Bluff L 69-73 37%    
  Jan 06, 2024 361   @ Mississippi Valley W 68-66 57%    
  Jan 13, 2024 245   Jackson St. L 66-71 33%    
  Jan 15, 2024 281   Alcorn St. L 67-70 39%    
  Jan 22, 2024 338   Alabama A&M L 67-69 43%    
  Jan 27, 2024 326   @ Prairie View L 64-70 30%    
  Jan 30, 2024 222   @ Texas Southern L 63-76 14%    
  Feb 03, 2024 349   Bethune-Cookman W 72-69 58%    
  Feb 05, 2024 343   Florida A&M W 65-63 56%    
  Feb 10, 2024 253   @ Grambling St. L 60-71 18%    
  Feb 12, 2024 321   @ Southern L 67-74 28%    
  Feb 17, 2024 346   Arkansas Pine Bluff W 72-70 57%    
  Feb 19, 2024 361   Mississippi Valley W 71-63 74%    
  Feb 24, 2024 343   @ Florida A&M L 62-66 36%    
  Feb 26, 2024 349   @ Bethune-Cookman L 69-72 39%    
  Mar 02, 2024 338   @ Alabama A&M L 66-71 34%    
  Mar 09, 2024 321   Southern L 70-71 47%    
  Mar 09, 2024 253   Grambling St. L 63-68 34%    
Projected Record 8 - 20 7 - 11




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southwestern Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.6 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.0 2.1 1st
2nd 0.0 0.2 0.9 1.4 0.9 0.3 0.1 3.8 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.3 1.6 2.1 1.2 0.2 0.0 5.4 3rd
4th 0.0 0.4 1.9 2.8 1.2 0.2 0.0 6.5 4th
5th 0.0 0.3 2.4 3.6 1.6 0.2 0.0 8.1 5th
6th 0.0 0.3 2.2 4.2 1.9 0.3 0.0 8.9 6th
7th 0.3 2.4 4.8 2.6 0.4 0.0 10.5 7th
8th 0.0 0.2 2.2 4.9 3.1 0.5 0.0 11.1 8th
9th 0.0 0.3 2.2 5.1 3.5 0.5 0.0 11.7 9th
10th 0.0 0.4 2.3 4.8 3.4 0.7 0.0 11.7 10th
11th 0.1 0.9 2.9 4.2 2.6 0.7 0.0 11.3 11th
12th 0.5 1.6 2.7 2.7 1.3 0.3 0.0 9.1 12th
Total 0.5 1.6 3.6 6.1 8.1 10.2 11.7 11.8 11.0 10.1 8.1 6.5 4.6 3.0 1.7 0.9 0.4 0.1 0.0 Total



Southwestern Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
17-1 100.0% 0.1    0.1 0.0
16-2 84.2% 0.3    0.3 0.1 0.0
15-3 64.8% 0.6    0.3 0.2 0.0
14-4 35.5% 0.6    0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0
13-5 12.4% 0.4    0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0
12-6 2.3% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.2% 0.0    0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 2.1% 2.1 1.0 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0
17-1 0.1% 55.3% 55.3% 14.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
16-2 0.4% 27.1% 27.1% 15.2 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.3
15-3 0.9% 18.3% 18.3% 15.6 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.7
14-4 1.7% 12.9% 12.9% 15.7 0.0 0.1 0.2 1.5
13-5 3.0% 6.0% 6.0% 16.0 0.0 0.2 2.9
12-6 4.6% 4.1% 4.1% 15.9 0.0 0.2 4.4
11-7 6.5% 2.0% 2.0% 16.0 0.1 6.4
10-8 8.1% 1.0% 1.0% 16.0 0.1 8.1
9-9 10.1% 0.7% 0.7% 16.0 0.1 10.0
8-10 11.0% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 11.0
7-11 11.8% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 11.8
6-12 11.7% 11.7
5-13 10.2% 10.2
4-14 8.1% 8.1
3-15 6.1% 6.1
2-16 3.6% 3.6
1-17 1.6% 1.6
0-18 0.5% 0.5
Total 100% 1.2% 1.2% 0.0% 15.8 0.0 0.0 0.2 1.0 98.8 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.3%