IN CC Stats - NCAA Basketball

Preseason Rankings
Tennessee Martin
Ohio Valley
2023-24

Overall
Predictive Rating	-6.7	#282
Expected Predictive Rating	+0.0	#1

Pace	76.2	#25
Improvement	-	-

Offense
Total Offense	-1.1	#218

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebound	-	-

Layup/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

Defense
Total Defense	-5.6	#334

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebounds	-	-

Layups/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

	Now	Win Next	Lose Next
#1 Overall Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
#1 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 2 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 4 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 6 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid	9.8%	24.4%	9.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Average Seed	15.3	14.7	15.4

.500 or above	41.9%	77.1%	41.0%
.500 or above in Conference	63.8%	84.5%	63.3%
Conference Champion	11.8%	24.4%	11.5%
Last Place in Conference	5.5%	1.3%	5.6%

First Four	3.4%	4.8%	3.4%
First Round	7.9%	22.4%	7.6%
Second Round	0.3%	1.9%	0.2%
Sweet Sixteen	0.0%	0.4%	0.0%
Elite Eight	0.0%	0.2%	0.0%
Final Four	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Championship Game	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
National Champion	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%

Next Game: Mississippi St. (Away) - 2.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding

Not in Tournament

Projected Record by Quad
Quad	Projected	Projected Cumulative
Quad 1a	0 - 1	0 - 1
Quad 1b	0 - 1	0 - 2
Quad 2	0 - 1	0 - 3
Quad 3	1 - 4	1 - 6
Quad 4	12 - 8	13 - 14

Date	Opponent		Result/Prediction			Record	Conf		Rating	Offense	Defense
Nov 11, 2023	37	@ Mississippi St.	L	60-81	2%
Nov 17, 2023	134	@ Eastern Kentucky	L	77-89	14%
Nov 19, 2023	326	Prairie View	W	77-74	60%
Nov 22, 2023	223	North Alabama	L	79-80	48%
Nov 25, 2023	324	@ Chicago St.	L	75-76	49%
Nov 30, 2023	178	@ Rice	L	78-87	21%
Dec 02, 2023	271	@ McNeese St.	L	76-80	37%
Dec 12, 2023	61	@ North Carolina St.	L	71-90	5%
Dec 18, 2023	329	@ Evansville	W	79-78	51%
Dec 28, 2023	262	@ Tennessee St.	L	81-85	36%
Dec 30, 2023	289	@ Tennessee Tech	L	76-79	41%
Jan 04, 2024	332	Eastern Illinois	W	81-74	72%
Jan 11, 2024	317	Western Illinois	W	79-74	66%
Jan 13, 2024	275	Arkansas Little Rock	W	86-83	58%
Jan 18, 2024	220	@ Morehead St.	L	68-75	28%
Jan 25, 2024	308	Southeast Missouri St.	W	86-82	65%
Jan 27, 2024	356	Lindenwood	W	83-73	80%
Feb 01, 2024	332	@ Eastern Illinois	W	78-77	53%
Feb 03, 2024	259	@ SIU Edwardsville	L	77-81	36%
Feb 06, 2024	275	@ Arkansas Little Rock	L	83-86	38%
Feb 10, 2024	317	@ Western Illinois	L	76-77	47%
Feb 15, 2024	344	Southern Indiana	W	85-77	75%
Feb 17, 2024	220	Morehead St.	L	71-72	48%
Feb 22, 2024	356	@ Lindenwood	W	80-76	63%
Feb 24, 2024	308	@ Southeast Missouri St.	L	83-85	45%
Feb 29, 2024	289	Tennessee Tech	W	79-76	60%
Mar 02, 2024	262	Tennessee St.	W	84-82	56%
Projected Record						13 - 14	10 - 8

Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.

Projected Ohio Valley Finish

	0-18	1-17	2-16	3-15	4-14	5-13	6-12	7-11	8-10	9-9	10-8	11-7	12-6	13-5	14-4	15-3	16-2	17-1	18-0		Total
1st												0.1	0.6	2.0	3.2	2.9	2.0	0.9	0.2		11.8	1st
2nd											0.1	1.1	3.3	4.1	2.3	0.9	0.1	0.0			11.9	2nd
3rd										0.1	1.1	4.1	4.4	1.9	0.3	0.0					12.0	3rd
4th								0.0	0.1	1.1	4.2	4.3	1.4	0.2	0.0						11.2	4th
5th								0.0	0.8	3.9	4.3	1.3	0.1	0.0							10.5	5th
6th							0.0	0.8	3.6	4.4	1.3	0.1	0.0								10.2	6th
7th						0.0	0.6	3.0	4.1	1.4	0.1	0.0									9.2	7th
8th				0.0	0.0	0.6	2.6	3.7	1.3	0.1											8.2	8th
9th			0.0	0.1	0.7	2.1	2.6	1.1	0.1												6.7	9th
10th		0.0	0.2	0.7	1.7	1.8	0.9	0.1													5.3	10th
11th	0.1	0.3	0.7	1.0	0.7	0.3	0.1	0.0													3.1	11th

Total	0.1	0.3	0.9	1.7	3.2	4.8	6.8	8.7	9.9	11.0	11.0	10.9	9.8	8.2	5.9	3.8	2.0	0.9	0.2			Total

Ohio Valley Regular Season Championship

Record	Champion	Total		Outright	2-Way	3-Way	4-Way	5-Way	6-Way	7-Way	8-Way
18-0	100.0%	0.2		0.2
17-1	99.5%	0.9		0.9	0.0
16-2	96.1%	2.0		1.7	0.3
15-3	77.0%	2.9		2.2	0.7	0.0
14-4	55.1%	3.2		1.8	1.2	0.2	0.0
13-5	24.4%	2.0		0.6	0.9	0.4	0.1	0.0
12-6	5.6%	0.6		0.0	0.2	0.2	0.1	0.0
11-7	0.5%	0.1			0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
10-8	0.0%
9-9	0.0%

Total	11.8%	11.8		7.3	3.3	0.9	0.3	0.0	0.0

NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf Record	Record Chance		Tourney Bid	Auto	At-Large	Avg Seed		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	No Bid		At-Large if not Auto
18-0	0.2%		90.1%	90.1%		13.5							0.0					0.0	0.0	0.1	0.1	0.0	0.0	0.0
17-1	0.9%		63.2%	63.2%		13.9												0.0	0.1	0.1	0.2	0.2	0.0	0.3
16-2	2.0%		48.4%	48.4%		14.4												0.0	0.0	0.1	0.3	0.4	0.1	1.0
15-3	3.8%		37.3%	37.3%		15.0													0.0	0.1	0.3	0.6	0.4	2.4
14-4	5.9%		27.7%	27.7%		15.4														0.0	0.2	0.6	0.8	4.3
13-5	8.2%		19.2%	19.2%		15.6														0.0	0.1	0.4	1.1	6.6
12-6	9.8%		13.3%	13.3%		15.8														0.0	0.0	0.2	1.0	8.5
11-7	10.9%		8.8%	8.8%		15.9															0.0	0.1	0.9	10.0
10-8	11.0%		5.0%	5.0%		16.0																0.0	0.5	10.5
9-9	11.0%		3.0%	3.0%		16.0																0.0	0.3	10.7
8-10	9.9%		1.6%	1.6%		16.0																	0.2	9.8
7-11	8.7%		0.8%	0.8%		16.0																	0.1	8.6
6-12	6.8%		0.4%	0.4%		16.0																	0.0	6.7
5-13	4.8%		0.2%	0.2%		16.0																	0.0	4.7
4-14	3.2%		0.0%	0.0%		16.0																	0.0	3.2
3-15	1.7%																							1.7
2-16	0.9%																							0.9
1-17	0.3%																							0.3
0-18	0.1%																							0.1

Total	100%		9.8%	9.8%	0.0%	15.3							0.0					0.0	0.1	0.4	1.1	2.6	5.5	90.2		0.0%

Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

	Chance	Tourney Bid	Avg Seed	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16
Lose Out	0.0%