IN CC Stats - NCAA Basketball

Preseason Rankings
Valparaiso
Missouri Valley
2023-24

Overall
Predictive Rating	-8.1	#310
Expected Predictive Rating	+0.0	#1

Pace	69.0	#152
Improvement	-	-

Offense
Total Offense	-5.5	#326

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebound	-	-

Layup/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

Defense
Total Defense	-2.7	#257

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebounds	-	-

Layups/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

	Now	Win Next	Lose Next
#1 Overall Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
#1 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 2 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 4 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 6 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid	0.4%	0.5%	0.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Average Seed	15.1	15.1	15.6

.500 or above	12.7%	15.6%	4.0%
.500 or above in Conference	8.2%	9.7%	3.8%
Conference Champion	0.1%	0.2%	0.0%
Last Place in Conference	35.2%	31.8%	45.3%

First Four	0.2%	0.2%	0.1%
First Round	0.3%	0.4%	0.1%
Second Round	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Sweet Sixteen	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Elite Eight	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Final Four	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Championship Game	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
National Champion	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%

Next Game: IUPUI (Home) - 74.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding

Not in Tournament

Projected Record by Quad
Quad	Projected	Projected Cumulative
Quad 1a	0 - 1	0 - 1
Quad 1b	0 - 1	0 - 3
Quad 2	0 - 4	0 - 6
Quad 3	2 - 7	2 - 14
Quad 4	8 - 7	10 - 20

Date	Opponent		Result/Prediction			Record	Conf		Rating	Offense	Defense
Nov 10, 2023	347	IUPUI	W	73-66	75%
Nov 14, 2023	340	Green Bay	W	71-65	71%
Nov 17, 2023	21	@ Illinois	L	61-85	1%
Nov 21, 2023	317	Western Illinois	W	72-68	63%
Nov 25, 2023	321	Southern	W	74-70	63%
Nov 29, 2023	70	Drake	L	62-75	13%
Dec 02, 2023	128	@ Belmont	L	66-80	12%
Dec 06, 2023	323	@ Central Michigan	L	68-70	44%
Dec 09, 2023	57	@ Virginia Tech	L	60-80	4%
Dec 16, 2023	324	Chicago St.	W	70-66	65%
Dec 19, 2023	165	Samford	L	69-75	31%
Dec 29, 2023	309	@ Elon	L	67-70	40%
Jan 03, 2024	100	Bradley	L	61-71	20%
Jan 06, 2024	244	@ Illinois-Chicago	L	68-75	29%
Jan 10, 2024	171	Southern Illinois	L	61-66	33%
Jan 14, 2024	209	@ Illinois St.	L	63-72	23%
Jan 17, 2024	329	@ Evansville	L	70-71	46%
Jan 20, 2024	244	Illinois-Chicago	L	71-72	48%
Jan 24, 2024	171	@ Southern Illinois	L	58-69	18%
Jan 27, 2024	143	Missouri St.	L	60-67	28%
Jan 31, 2024	70	@ Drake	L	59-78	6%
Feb 03, 2024	329	Evansville	W	73-68	65%
Feb 07, 2024	122	@ Indiana St.	L	67-81	12%
Feb 10, 2024	128	Belmont	L	69-77	27%
Feb 14, 2024	123	Northern Iowa	L	66-74	26%
Feb 17, 2024	143	@ Missouri St.	L	57-70	14%
Feb 21, 2024	122	Indiana St.	L	70-78	26%
Feb 24, 2024	154	@ Murray St.	L	64-76	16%
Feb 27, 2024	123	@ Northern Iowa	L	63-77	13%
Mar 03, 2024	209	Illinois St.	L	66-69	40%
Projected Record						10 - 20	5 - 15

Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.

Projected Missouri Valley Finish

	0-20	1-19	2-18	3-17	4-16	5-15	6-14	7-13	8-12	9-11	10-10	11-9	12-8	13-7	14-6	15-5	16-4	17-3	18-2	19-1	20-0		Total
1st														0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0				0.1	1st
2nd													0.0	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.0	0.0					0.4	2nd
3rd											0.0	0.1	0.2	0.3	0.2	0.0	0.0						0.8	3rd
4th										0.0	0.1	0.4	0.6	0.2	0.1								1.3	4th
5th									0.0	0.1	0.7	0.8	0.4	0.1	0.0								2.2	5th
6th								0.0	0.2	0.9	1.6	0.6	0.1										3.5	6th
7th							0.0	0.3	1.4	2.3	0.9	0.1	0.0										5.0	7th
8th						0.0	0.5	2.0	3.2	1.5	0.2	0.0											7.5	8th
9th					0.1	1.2	3.5	4.2	1.9	0.4	0.0												11.2	9th
10th			0.0	0.5	3.0	5.9	5.4	2.1	0.4	0.0													17.3	10th
11th		0.3	2.8	6.5	8.0	5.4	1.8	0.3	0.0														25.3	11th
12th	2.5	6.4	7.5	5.7	2.6	0.7	0.1	0.0															25.4	12th

Total	2.5	6.7	10.3	12.7	13.7	13.3	11.3	8.9	7.2	5.2	3.6	1.9	1.4	0.7	0.4	0.2	0.1	0.0	0.0					Total

Missouri Valley Regular Season Championship

Record	Champion	Total		Outright	2-Way	3-Way	4-Way	5-Way	6-Way	7-Way	8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2	100.0%	0.0		0.0	0.0
17-3	62.8%	0.0		0.0	0.0
16-4	50.8%	0.0		0.0	0.0
15-5	24.5%	0.0		0.0	0.0	0.0
14-6	7.6%	0.0		0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
13-7	1.3%	0.0		0.0	0.0
12-8	0.0%
11-9	0.0%
10-10	0.0%

Total	0.1%	0.1		0.1	0.0	0.0	0.0

NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf Record	Record Chance		Tourney Bid	Auto	At-Large	Avg Seed		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	No Bid		At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2	0.0%																		0.0					0.0
17-3	0.0%																							0.0
16-4	0.1%		7.9%	7.9%		13.7													0.0	0.0	0.0			0.1
15-5	0.2%		8.0%	8.0%		13.9													0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0		0.2
14-6	0.4%		6.5%	6.5%		13.9														0.0	0.0	0.0		0.3
13-7	0.7%		3.8%	3.8%		14.3														0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.7
12-8	1.4%		3.8%	3.8%		14.4														0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	1.3
11-9	1.9%		1.7%	1.7%		14.9														0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	1.9
10-10	3.6%		1.2%	1.2%		15.2															0.0	0.0	0.0	3.5
9-11	5.2%		0.9%	0.9%		15.7																0.0	0.0	5.2
8-12	7.2%		0.4%	0.4%		15.9																0.0	0.0	7.1
7-13	8.9%		0.6%	0.6%		16.0																	0.1	8.9
6-14	11.3%		0.3%	0.3%		16.0																	0.0	11.3
5-15	13.3%		0.1%	0.1%		16.0																	0.0	13.3
4-16	13.7%		0.1%	0.1%		16.0																	0.0	13.7
3-17	12.7%		0.0%	0.0%		16.0																	0.0	12.7
2-18	10.3%																							10.3
1-19	6.7%																							6.7
0-20	2.5%																							2.5

Total	100%		0.4%	0.4%	0.0%	15.1													0.0	0.0	0.1	0.1	0.2	99.6		0.0%

Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

	Chance	Tourney Bid	Avg Seed	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16
Lose Out	0.1%