IN CC Stats - NCAA Basketball

Preseason Rankings
Illinois-Chicago
Missouri Valley
2023-24

Overall
Predictive Rating	-4.6	#244
Expected Predictive Rating	+0.0	#1

Pace	71.5	#90
Improvement	-	-

Offense
Total Offense	-2.5	#258

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebound	-	-

Layup/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

Defense
Total Defense	-2.1	#239

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebounds	-	-

Layups/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

	Now	Win Next	Lose Next
#1 Overall Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
#1 Seed	0.0%	0.1%	0.0%
Top 2 Seed	0.0%	0.1%	0.0%
Top 4 Seed	0.0%	0.1%	0.0%
Top 6 Seed	0.0%	0.1%	0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid	1.4%	3.3%	1.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier	0.0%	0.3%	0.0%
Average Seed	14.3	13.0	14.5

.500 or above	28.9%	58.6%	27.1%
.500 or above in Conference	26.0%	45.6%	24.8%
Conference Champion	1.0%	2.8%	0.9%
Last Place in Conference	14.3%	6.4%	14.7%

First Four	0.3%	0.4%	0.3%
First Round	1.2%	3.1%	1.1%
Second Round	0.1%	0.5%	0.1%
Sweet Sixteen	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Elite Eight	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Final Four	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Championship Game	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
National Champion	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%

Next Game: Cincinnati (Away) - 5.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding

Not in Tournament

Projected Record by Quad
Quad	Projected	Projected Cumulative
Quad 1a	0 - 1	0 - 1
Quad 1b	0 - 1	0 - 2
Quad 2	1 - 4	1 - 6
Quad 3	3 - 7	3 - 13
Quad 4	8 - 4	11 - 17

Date	Opponent		Result/Prediction			Record	Conf		Rating	Offense	Defense
Nov 06, 2023	58	@ Cincinnati	L	65-82	6%
Nov 10, 2023	275	Arkansas Little Rock	W	81-76	66%
Nov 14, 2023	96	@ Loyola Chicago	L	64-77	13%
Nov 24, 2023	137	Middle Tennessee	L	68-74	28%
Nov 30, 2023	209	Illinois St.	W	71-70	52%
Dec 08, 2023	221	@ Jacksonville St.	L	67-72	35%
Dec 12, 2023	340	Green Bay	W	76-66	80%
Dec 16, 2023	319	Western Michigan	W	75-68	74%
Dec 21, 2023	348	Incarnate Word	W	78-67	83%
Dec 30, 2023	171	@ Southern Illinois	L	62-70	26%
Jan 02, 2024	154	@ Murray St.	L	69-77	24%
Jan 06, 2024	310	Valparaiso	W	75-68	71%
Jan 10, 2024	123	@ Northern Iowa	L	68-78	20%
Jan 13, 2024	100	Bradley	L	66-72	31%
Jan 17, 2024	154	Murray St.	L	72-74	42%
Jan 20, 2024	310	@ Valparaiso	W	72-71	52%
Jan 24, 2024	122	Indiana St.	L	75-79	36%
Jan 27, 2024	128	@ Belmont	L	71-81	20%
Jan 31, 2024	329	@ Evansville	W	74-72	57%
Feb 03, 2024	171	Southern Illinois	L	65-67	45%
Feb 07, 2024	209	@ Illinois St.	L	68-73	33%
Feb 11, 2024	123	Northern Iowa	L	71-75	37%
Feb 14, 2024	100	@ Bradley	L	63-75	16%
Feb 18, 2024	128	Belmont	L	74-78	37%
Feb 21, 2024	329	Evansville	W	77-69	75%
Feb 24, 2024	122	@ Indiana St.	L	72-82	21%
Feb 28, 2024	70	Drake	L	66-75	22%
Mar 03, 2024	143	@ Missouri St.	L	61-70	23%
Projected Record						11 - 17	7 - 13

Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.

Projected Missouri Valley Finish

	0-20	1-19	2-18	3-17	4-16	5-15	6-14	7-13	8-12	9-11	10-10	11-9	12-8	13-7	14-6	15-5	16-4	17-3	18-2	19-1	20-0		Total
1st													0.0	0.0	0.1	0.2	0.3	0.2	0.1	0.1	0.0		1.0	1st
2nd												0.0	0.1	0.3	0.8	0.7	0.3	0.0	0.0				2.2	2nd
3rd											0.0	0.1	0.7	1.3	0.9	0.3	0.0						3.3	3rd
4th										0.0	0.2	1.0	1.9	1.2	0.3	0.0	0.0						4.6	4th
5th									0.0	0.2	1.4	2.5	1.5	0.2	0.0								5.9	5th
6th								0.0	0.2	1.7	3.3	2.1	0.4	0.0									7.7	6th
7th							0.0	0.4	2.2	4.2	2.5	0.4	0.0										9.7	7th
8th						0.0	0.6	2.9	4.8	2.9	0.6	0.0											11.9	8th
9th					0.1	1.1	3.9	5.2	3.0	0.6	0.0												14.0	9th
10th			0.0	0.4	2.3	5.0	5.3	2.5	0.6	0.0													16.1	10th
11th		0.1	1.0	3.2	4.8	3.8	1.4	0.2	0.0														14.5	11th
12th	0.5	1.6	2.7	2.5	1.4	0.5	0.0																9.1	12th

Total	0.5	1.7	3.7	6.0	8.6	10.4	11.4	11.3	10.8	9.6	7.9	6.2	4.7	3.1	2.0	1.2	0.6	0.2	0.1	0.1	0.0			Total

Missouri Valley Regular Season Championship

Record	Champion	Total		Outright	2-Way	3-Way	4-Way	5-Way	6-Way	7-Way	8-Way
20-0	100.0%	0.0		0.0
19-1	100.0%	0.1		0.1	0.0
18-2	88.6%	0.1		0.1	0.0
17-3	82.8%	0.2		0.1	0.1	0.0
16-4	44.9%	0.3		0.2	0.1	0.0
15-5	21.0%	0.2		0.1	0.1	0.1	0.0	0.0
14-6	6.0%	0.1		0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
13-7	0.3%	0.0		0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
12-8	0.0%	0.0					0.0
11-9	0.0%
10-10	0.0%

Total	1.0%	1.0		0.5	0.4	0.1	0.0	0.0

NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf Record	Record Chance		Tourney Bid	Auto	At-Large	Avg Seed		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	No Bid		At-Large if not Auto
20-0	0.0%																	0.0
19-1	0.1%		49.6%	36.1%	13.4%	9.7		0.0								0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0				0.0		21.1%
18-2	0.1%		29.2%	25.2%	4.0%	11.7												0.0	0.0	0.0				0.1		5.3%
17-3	0.2%		25.3%	21.5%	3.8%	12.2											0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0			0.2		4.8%
16-4	0.6%		14.5%	13.8%	0.6%	12.6												0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0			0.5		0.8%
15-5	1.2%		5.4%	5.4%		13.0												0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0		1.1
14-6	2.0%		8.3%	8.3%		13.3													0.0	0.1	0.1	0.0		1.9
13-7	3.1%		5.1%	5.1%		13.9													0.0	0.0	0.1	0.0		2.9
12-8	4.7%		3.6%	3.6%		14.5														0.0	0.1	0.1	0.0	4.5
11-9	6.2%		2.8%	2.8%		15.1														0.0	0.0	0.1	0.0	6.0
10-10	7.9%		1.6%	1.6%		15.5															0.0	0.0	0.1	7.8
9-11	9.6%		1.5%	1.5%		15.8															0.0	0.0	0.1	9.5
8-12	10.8%		0.6%	0.6%		16.0																	0.1	10.7
7-13	11.3%		0.2%	0.2%		16.0																	0.0	11.3
6-14	11.4%		0.3%	0.3%		16.0																	0.0	11.3
5-15	10.4%		0.2%	0.2%		16.0																	0.0	10.4
4-16	8.6%		0.1%	0.1%		16.0																	0.0	8.6
3-17	6.0%		0.1%	0.1%		16.0																	0.0	6.0
2-18	3.7%																							3.7
1-19	1.7%																							1.7
0-20	0.5%																							0.5

Total	100%		1.4%	1.3%	0.0%	14.3		0.0								0.0	0.0	0.0	0.1	0.2	0.3	0.3	0.4	98.6		0.0%

Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

	Chance	Tourney Bid	Avg Seed	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16
Lose Out	0.0%