IN CC Stats - NCAA Basketball

Preseason Rankings
Arkansas Little Rock
Ohio Valley
2023-24

Overall
Predictive Rating	-6.2	#275
Expected Predictive Rating	+0.0	#1

Pace	75.6	#28
Improvement	-	-

Offense
Total Offense	-0.5	#197

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebound	-	-

Layup/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

Defense
Total Defense	-5.7	#336

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebounds	-	-

Layups/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

	Now	Win Next	Lose Next
#1 Overall Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
#1 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 2 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 4 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 6 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid	10.9%	14.7%	8.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Average Seed	15.3	15.1	15.5

.500 or above	53.2%	68.3%	42.0%
.500 or above in Conference	69.2%	77.1%	63.3%
Conference Champion	14.5%	19.4%	10.8%
Last Place in Conference	4.7%	2.9%	6.0%

First Four	3.6%	4.1%	3.3%
First Round	8.9%	12.5%	6.3%
Second Round	0.3%	0.5%	0.2%
Sweet Sixteen	0.0%	0.1%	0.0%
Elite Eight	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Final Four	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Championship Game	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
National Champion	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%

Next Game: Texas St. (Home) - 42.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding

Not in Tournament

Projected Record by Quad
Quad	Projected	Projected Cumulative
Quad 1a	0 - 0	0 - 0
Quad 1b	0 - 0	0 - 0
Quad 2	0 - 0	0 - 0
Quad 3	1 - 4	1 - 5
Quad 4	15 - 10	16 - 15

Date	Opponent		Result/Prediction			Record	Conf		Rating	Offense	Defense
Nov 06, 2023	193	Texas St.	L	70-72	43%
Nov 10, 2023	244	@ Illinois-Chicago	L	76-81	34%
Nov 18, 2023	240	Northern Illinois	L	78-80	43%
Nov 19, 2023	206	@ Georgia St.	L	73-80	26%
Nov 22, 2023	206	Georgia St.	L	76-77	46%
Nov 25, 2023	233	Tulsa	W	79-78	51%
Nov 28, 2023	234	Ball St.	W	79-78	52%
Dec 01, 2023	198	Arkansas St.	L	71-73	44%
Dec 07, 2023	336	@ Central Arkansas	W	86-84	55%
Dec 10, 2023	189	Winthrop	L	79-81	42%
Dec 13, 2023	249	Texas San Antonio	W	82-80	55%
Dec 18, 2023	154	Murray St.	L	76-80	36%
Dec 21, 2023	221	Jacksonville St.	L	74-75	49%
Dec 28, 2023	289	@ Tennessee Tech	L	76-78	42%
Dec 30, 2023	262	@ Tennessee St.	L	81-85	37%
Jan 04, 2024	259	SIU Edwardsville	W	80-78	57%
Jan 06, 2024	332	Eastern Illinois	W	81-74	73%
Jan 13, 2024	282	@ Tennessee Martin	L	83-86	42%
Jan 18, 2024	344	@ Southern Indiana	W	82-79	58%
Jan 25, 2024	356	Lindenwood	W	83-72	81%
Jan 27, 2024	308	Southeast Missouri St.	W	86-81	66%
Feb 01, 2024	259	@ SIU Edwardsville	L	77-81	37%
Feb 03, 2024	332	@ Eastern Illinois	W	78-77	54%
Feb 06, 2024	282	Tennessee Martin	W	86-83	62%
Feb 08, 2024	317	@ Western Illinois	L	76-77	49%
Feb 15, 2024	220	Morehead St.	L	71-72	49%
Feb 17, 2024	344	Southern Indiana	W	85-76	75%
Feb 22, 2024	308	@ Southeast Missouri St.	L	83-84	47%
Feb 24, 2024	356	@ Lindenwood	W	80-75	65%
Feb 29, 2024	262	Tennessee St.	W	84-82	58%
Mar 02, 2024	289	Tennessee Tech	W	79-75	62%
Projected Record						16 - 15	10 - 8

Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.

Projected Ohio Valley Finish

	0-18	1-17	2-16	3-15	4-14	5-13	6-12	7-11	8-10	9-9	10-8	11-7	12-6	13-5	14-4	15-3	16-2	17-1	18-0		Total
1st											0.0	0.0	0.5	2.2	3.6	3.9	2.7	1.2	0.3		14.5	1st
2nd											0.1	1.1	3.5	4.8	3.0	1.0	0.1	0.0			13.6	2nd
3rd										0.1	1.3	4.5	4.6	2.0	0.4	0.0					12.8	3rd
4th								0.0	0.0	1.0	4.1	4.7	1.5	0.2	0.0						11.6	4th
5th								0.0	0.7	4.0	4.4	1.3	0.1								10.6	5th
6th							0.0	0.6	3.1	4.2	1.3	0.1									9.3	6th
7th						0.0	0.5	2.6	3.8	1.3	0.1										8.2	7th
8th					0.0	0.5	2.1	2.9	1.3	0.1	0.0										6.8	8th
9th				0.1	0.5	1.8	2.3	1.1	0.1												5.8	9th
10th		0.0	0.1	0.5	1.4	1.4	0.6	0.1													4.2	10th
11th	0.1	0.2	0.5	0.8	0.8	0.3	0.0														2.6	11th

Total	0.1	0.3	0.6	1.3	2.7	3.9	5.6	7.3	9.1	10.6	11.3	11.6	10.3	9.1	7.0	4.9	2.8	1.2	0.3			Total

Ohio Valley Regular Season Championship

Record	Champion	Total		Outright	2-Way	3-Way	4-Way	5-Way	6-Way	7-Way	8-Way
18-0	100.0%	0.3		0.3
17-1	99.3%	1.2		1.2	0.0
16-2	94.9%	2.7		2.4	0.3	0.0
15-3	79.6%	3.9		2.8	1.1	0.0
14-4	51.7%	3.6		1.8	1.4	0.3	0.0
13-5	23.6%	2.2		0.6	1.0	0.5	0.1	0.0
12-6	5.4%	0.5		0.0	0.2	0.2	0.1	0.0
11-7	0.4%	0.0			0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
10-8	0.0%	0.0						0.0
9-9	0.0%

Total	14.5%	14.5		9.1	4.1	1.0	0.3	0.0

NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf Record	Record Chance		Tourney Bid	Auto	At-Large	Avg Seed		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	No Bid		At-Large if not Auto
18-0	0.3%		65.5%	65.3%	0.2%	12.9							0.0			0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.1	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.1		0.5%
17-1	1.2%		61.4%	61.4%		13.9												0.0	0.1	0.2	0.3	0.1	0.1	0.5
16-2	2.8%		46.1%	46.1%		14.6													0.0	0.2	0.4	0.5	0.2	1.5
15-3	4.9%		37.4%	37.4%		15.0													0.0	0.1	0.3	0.8	0.6	3.1
14-4	7.0%		25.4%	25.4%		15.5														0.0	0.2	0.6	1.0	5.2
13-5	9.1%		19.1%	19.1%		15.7														0.0	0.1	0.4	1.3	7.4
12-6	10.3%		11.8%	11.8%		15.8															0.0	0.2	1.0	9.0
11-7	11.6%		8.3%	8.3%		15.9															0.0	0.1	0.9	10.7
10-8	11.3%		4.4%	4.4%		16.0																0.0	0.5	10.8
9-9	10.6%		3.2%	3.2%		16.0																0.0	0.3	10.3
8-10	9.1%		1.5%	1.5%		16.0																	0.1	9.0
7-11	7.3%		1.2%	1.2%		16.0																	0.1	7.2
6-12	5.6%		0.7%	0.7%		16.0																	0.0	5.5
5-13	3.9%		0.1%	0.1%		16.0																	0.0	3.9
4-14	2.7%		0.0%	0.0%		16.0																	0.0	2.7
3-15	1.3%																							1.3
2-16	0.6%																							0.6
1-17	0.3%																							0.3
0-18	0.1%																							0.1

Total	100%		10.9%	10.9%	0.0%	15.3							0.0			0.0	0.0	0.0	0.1	0.5	1.3	2.7	6.2	89.1		0.0%

Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

	Chance	Tourney Bid	Avg Seed	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16
Win Out	0.0%	95.7%	10.3						4.3			39.1		17.4	34.8
Lose Out	0.0%