Preseason Rankings
St. John's
Big East
2023-24
Overall
Predictive Rating+10.3#44
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace81.3#1
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+6.7#29
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+3.7#74
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.4% 0.4% 0.0%
#1 Seed 1.9% 1.9% 0.2%
Top 2 Seed 4.5% 4.7% 0.6%
Top 4 Seed 12.2% 12.7% 2.4%
Top 6 Seed 21.6% 22.3% 5.4%
NCAA Tourney Bid 47.5% 48.7% 18.9%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 43.5% 44.8% 16.6%
Average Seed 6.8 6.8 8.1
.500 or above 70.3% 71.8% 35.5%
.500 or above in Conference 54.9% 56.0% 29.7%
Conference Champion 5.7% 5.8% 1.5%
Last Place in Conference 5.8% 5.4% 15.9%
First Four4.7% 4.8% 3.3%
First Round45.3% 46.5% 17.2%
Second Round28.2% 29.1% 9.5%
Sweet Sixteen12.6% 13.0% 3.6%
Elite Eight5.6% 5.8% 1.4%
Final Four2.5% 2.5% 0.6%
Championship Game1.1% 1.1% 0.3%
National Champion0.4% 0.4% 0.0%

Next Game: Stony Brook (Home) - 95.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 11 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a1 - 51 - 5
Quad 1b2 - 34 - 8
Quad 24 - 38 - 11
Quad 35 - 113 - 12
Quad 44 - 017 - 12


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 07, 2023 255   Stony Brook W 83-64 96%    
  Nov 13, 2023 48   Michigan W 80-79 52%    
  Nov 16, 2023 90   North Texas W 68-63 66%    
  Nov 25, 2023 327   Holy Cross W 92-69 98%    
  Dec 01, 2023 63   @ West Virginia L 81-82 46%    
  Dec 06, 2023 301   Sacred Heart W 93-72 96%    
  Dec 10, 2023 103   Boston College W 80-74 70%    
  Dec 16, 2023 162   Fordham W 86-73 87%    
  Dec 20, 2023 43   Xavier W 86-83 59%    
  Dec 23, 2023 6   @ Connecticut L 74-83 22%    
  Dec 30, 2023 112   Hofstra W 85-75 79%    
  Jan 02, 2024 88   Butler W 79-71 74%    
  Jan 06, 2024 20   @ Villanova L 72-78 31%    
  Jan 10, 2024 46   Providence W 81-78 61%    
  Jan 13, 2024 8   @ Creighton L 76-85 23%    
  Jan 16, 2024 66   @ Seton Hall L 76-77 47%    
  Jan 20, 2024 9   Marquette L 81-83 42%    
  Jan 24, 2024 20   Villanova W 75-74 50%    
  Jan 31, 2024 43   @ Xavier L 83-86 39%    
  Feb 03, 2024 6   Connecticut L 77-80 39%    
  Feb 06, 2024 109   DePaul W 87-77 79%    
  Feb 10, 2024 9   @ Marquette L 78-86 25%    
  Feb 13, 2024 46   @ Providence L 78-81 41%    
  Feb 18, 2024 66   Seton Hall W 79-74 66%    
  Feb 21, 2024 106   @ Georgetown W 84-81 61%    
  Feb 25, 2024 8   Creighton L 79-82 41%    
  Feb 28, 2024 88   @ Butler W 76-74 55%    
  Mar 05, 2024 109   @ DePaul W 84-80 62%    
  Mar 09, 2024 106   Georgetown W 87-78 78%    
Projected Record 17 - 12 10 - 10




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big East Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.5 1.2 1.5 1.3 0.8 0.3 0.0 5.7 1st
2nd 0.0 0.3 1.2 2.5 2.5 1.4 0.4 0.0 8.2 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.5 1.9 3.6 2.8 0.9 0.1 0.0 9.8 3rd
4th 0.1 0.7 3.0 4.5 2.6 0.6 0.1 11.5 4th
5th 0.1 1.1 3.8 4.8 2.3 0.4 0.0 12.5 5th
6th 0.0 0.1 1.5 4.2 4.6 1.9 0.3 0.0 12.6 6th
7th 0.0 0.2 1.8 4.2 3.9 1.4 0.2 11.7 7th
8th 0.0 0.4 1.8 3.8 3.1 0.9 0.1 10.1 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.5 2.1 3.0 2.2 0.6 0.0 8.5 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.7 1.7 2.0 1.2 0.3 0.0 6.1 10th
11th 0.1 0.4 0.7 1.0 0.8 0.3 0.1 0.0 3.4 11th
Total 0.1 0.4 0.8 1.7 3.1 4.8 6.3 8.2 9.4 10.2 10.6 10.3 9.3 7.8 6.5 4.6 3.0 1.7 0.8 0.3 0.0 Total



Big East Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
19-1 100.0% 0.3    0.3 0.0
18-2 97.4% 0.8    0.7 0.1 0.0
17-3 78.6% 1.3    1.0 0.3 0.0
16-4 50.6% 1.5    0.8 0.6 0.1 0.0
15-5 25.3% 1.2    0.4 0.5 0.2 0.0
14-6 8.0% 0.5    0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0
13-7 0.5% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0% 0.0    0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 5.7% 5.7 3.2 1.8 0.5 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.0% 100.0% 67.4% 32.6% 1.3 0.0 0.0 100.0%
19-1 0.3% 100.0% 48.0% 52.0% 1.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 100.0%
18-2 0.8% 100.0% 34.1% 65.9% 1.6 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
17-3 1.7% 100.0% 25.9% 74.1% 2.1 0.5 0.6 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
16-4 3.0% 100.0% 19.1% 80.9% 2.8 0.5 0.8 0.8 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
15-5 4.6% 99.9% 16.1% 83.8% 3.9 0.2 0.6 1.2 1.1 0.8 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.9%
14-6 6.5% 98.6% 13.2% 85.4% 5.1 0.0 0.2 0.8 1.4 1.5 1.2 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 98.4%
13-7 7.8% 96.4% 11.1% 85.3% 6.5 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.7 1.3 1.5 1.5 1.1 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.3 96.0%
12-8 9.3% 87.0% 7.8% 79.2% 7.8 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.1 1.6 1.7 1.5 1.0 0.3 0.0 1.2 85.9%
11-9 10.3% 70.8% 6.3% 64.4% 8.9 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.9 1.4 1.6 1.8 1.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 3.0 68.8%
10-10 10.6% 46.0% 5.7% 40.3% 9.8 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.0 1.5 1.3 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 5.8 42.7%
9-11 10.2% 19.3% 4.2% 15.1% 10.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.9 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 8.2 15.8%
8-12 9.4% 5.8% 3.3% 2.5% 12.2 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 8.9 2.6%
7-13 8.2% 2.5% 2.3% 0.2% 14.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 8.0 0.2%
6-14 6.3% 1.3% 1.3% 15.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 6.2
5-15 4.8% 0.9% 0.9% 16.0 0.0 0.0 4.8
4-16 3.1% 1.3% 1.3% 16.0 0.0 3.1
3-17 1.7% 0.8% 0.8% 16.0 0.0 1.7
2-18 0.8% 1.0% 1.0% 16.0 0.0 0.8
1-19 0.4% 1.0% 1.0% 16.0 0.0 0.4
0-20 0.1% 0.1
Total 100% 47.5% 7.0% 40.5% 6.8 1.9 2.6 3.6 4.1 4.6 4.8 5.0 5.3 5.2 5.1 3.9 0.7 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 52.5 43.5%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.0% 100.0% 1.0 100.0