Preseason Rankings
North Texas
American Athletic
2023-24
Overall
Predictive Rating+5.5#90
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace53.0#362
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense-0.5#194
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+6.0#34
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.3% 0.4% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 1.1% 1.4% 0.2%
Top 6 Seed 2.4% 3.1% 0.6%
NCAA Tourney Bid 14.5% 17.3% 7.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 8.1% 10.2% 3.2%
Average Seed 9.7 9.4 10.9
.500 or above 71.9% 79.3% 53.5%
.500 or above in Conference 66.1% 71.0% 54.0%
Conference Champion 7.7% 9.2% 3.9%
Last Place in Conference 3.2% 2.2% 5.5%
First Four2.7% 3.2% 1.5%
First Round13.1% 15.7% 6.9%
Second Round5.7% 7.1% 2.3%
Sweet Sixteen2.0% 2.5% 0.9%
Elite Eight0.8% 0.9% 0.3%
Final Four0.3% 0.4% 0.1%
Championship Game0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.1% 0.0%

Next Game: Northern Iowa (Home) - 71.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b1 - 21 - 4
Quad 22 - 33 - 7
Quad 35 - 39 - 10
Quad 46 - 115 - 11


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 07, 2023 123   Northern Iowa W 63-57 71%    
  Nov 11, 2023 296   Nebraska Omaha W 69-53 93%    
  Nov 16, 2023 44   St. John's L 63-68 34%    
  Dec 02, 2023 361   Mississippi Valley W 71-45 99%    
  Dec 05, 2023 54   @ Boise St. L 54-61 27%    
  Dec 10, 2023 162   Fordham W 61-56 67%    
  Dec 17, 2023 37   Mississippi St. L 51-57 31%    
  Dec 23, 2023 200   Texas Arlington W 63-53 80%    
  Jan 04, 2024 95   @ Wichita St. L 57-59 42%    
  Jan 06, 2024 99   Tulane W 67-63 63%    
  Jan 13, 2024 138   Temple W 61-54 71%    
  Jan 17, 2024 146   @ East Carolina W 59-58 53%    
  Jan 20, 2024 156   @ Charlotte W 54-52 56%    
  Jan 25, 2024 101   SMU W 62-58 64%    
  Jan 28, 2024 25   @ Florida Atlantic L 55-65 20%    
  Jan 31, 2024 77   UAB W 63-61 56%    
  Feb 03, 2024 145   South Florida W 63-56 72%    
  Feb 07, 2024 233   @ Tulsa W 63-57 70%    
  Feb 11, 2024 101   @ SMU L 59-61 44%    
  Feb 15, 2024 27   Memphis L 61-65 37%    
  Feb 18, 2024 77   @ UAB L 60-64 37%    
  Feb 24, 2024 249   Texas San Antonio W 68-55 86%    
  Feb 28, 2024 99   @ Tulane L 64-66 43%    
  Mar 03, 2024 146   East Carolina W 62-55 72%    
  Mar 06, 2024 25   Florida Atlantic L 58-62 37%    
  Mar 09, 2024 178   @ Rice W 65-62 60%    
Projected Record 15 - 11 10 - 8




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected American Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.8 2.3 1.9 1.0 0.2 7.7 1st
2nd 0.0 0.2 1.3 3.4 3.3 1.5 0.3 0.0 9.9 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.2 1.7 4.3 3.5 1.1 0.1 0.0 10.9 3rd
4th 0.0 1.5 4.4 3.5 0.9 0.1 0.0 10.3 4th
5th 0.0 0.9 4.1 3.8 0.9 0.0 9.7 5th
6th 0.0 0.4 3.3 4.2 1.2 0.0 9.1 6th
7th 0.2 2.0 4.3 1.5 0.1 0.0 8.1 7th
8th 0.1 1.2 4.0 2.2 0.3 0.0 7.8 8th
9th 0.0 0.5 3.2 2.8 0.4 0.0 6.9 9th
10th 0.0 0.3 2.1 2.9 0.7 0.0 6.0 10th
11th 0.0 0.2 1.3 2.4 0.9 0.0 0.0 4.8 11th
12th 0.0 0.2 1.1 1.9 0.9 0.1 0.0 4.2 12th
13th 0.0 0.2 1.0 1.2 0.7 0.1 0.0 3.1 13th
14th 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.5 0.3 0.1 1.5 14th
Total 0.0 0.2 0.7 1.6 2.8 4.3 5.9 8.4 9.9 11.2 11.8 11.3 10.0 8.5 6.2 3.9 2.1 1.0 0.2 Total



American Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.2    0.2
17-1 99.1% 1.0    0.9 0.1
16-2 87.6% 1.9    1.4 0.4 0.0
15-3 59.0% 2.3    1.2 0.9 0.2 0.0
14-4 28.4% 1.8    0.6 0.8 0.4 0.1 0.0
13-5 7.0% 0.6    0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
12-6 0.5% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0% 0.0    0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 7.7% 7.7 4.4 2.3 0.8 0.2 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.2% 99.7% 52.3% 47.4% 2.9 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.4%
17-1 1.0% 97.1% 36.5% 60.6% 4.4 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 95.4%
16-2 2.1% 87.0% 28.1% 58.9% 6.8 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.3 81.9%
15-3 3.9% 69.2% 23.5% 45.8% 8.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.1 1.2 59.8%
14-4 6.2% 45.9% 13.8% 32.0% 9.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.8 0.9 0.2 0.0 3.3 37.2%
13-5 8.5% 26.2% 11.4% 14.8% 10.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 1.0 0.4 0.0 0.0 6.3 16.7%
12-6 10.0% 14.4% 9.4% 5.0% 11.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.7 0.4 0.1 0.0 8.6 5.6%
11-7 11.3% 7.5% 6.6% 0.9% 12.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 10.5 1.0%
10-8 11.8% 4.7% 4.3% 0.4% 12.7 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 11.2 0.4%
9-9 11.2% 3.8% 3.8% 13.7 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 10.7
8-10 9.9% 2.7% 2.7% 14.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 9.6
7-11 8.4% 1.9% 1.9% 15.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 8.2
6-12 5.9% 0.9% 0.9% 15.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 5.9
5-13 4.3% 0.9% 0.9% 16.0 0.0 4.2
4-14 2.8% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.0 2.8
3-15 1.6% 0.8% 0.8% 16.0 0.0 1.6
2-16 0.7% 0.7
1-17 0.2% 0.2
0-18 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 14.5% 6.9% 7.6% 9.7 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1.3 2.1 3.6 1.8 0.7 0.3 0.3 0.3 85.5 8.1%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.0% 100.0% 1.9 27.9 58.1 14.0