Preseason Rankings
Arizona
Pac-12
2023-24
Overall
Predictive Rating+15.4#11
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace78.9#9
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+10.0#3
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+5.4#45
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 3.7% 3.7% 0.0%
#1 Seed 14.3% 14.3% 3.0%
Top 2 Seed 26.9% 27.0% 3.0%
Top 4 Seed 47.0% 47.1% 10.3%
Top 6 Seed 62.0% 62.2% 15.3%
NCAA Tourney Bid 83.4% 83.5% 49.7%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 79.1% 79.2% 45.0%
Average Seed 4.6 4.6 7.8
.500 or above 90.3% 90.4% 56.5%
.500 or above in Conference 88.8% 88.8% 67.6%
Conference Champion 31.2% 31.3% 10.3%
Last Place in Conference 0.7% 0.7% 2.9%
First Four3.2% 3.2% 6.7%
First Round81.9% 82.0% 48.4%
Second Round64.6% 64.8% 18.2%
Sweet Sixteen39.3% 39.4% 6.9%
Elite Eight21.8% 21.8% 1.8%
Final Four11.8% 11.8% 0.0%
Championship Game6.2% 6.3% 0.0%
National Champion3.2% 3.2% 0.0%

Next Game: Morgan St. (Home) - 99.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 3 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a3 - 53 - 5
Quad 1b3 - 26 - 7
Quad 26 - 212 - 9
Quad 35 - 118 - 10
Quad 44 - 021 - 10


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 06, 2023 333   Morgan St. W 97-68 99.7%   
  Nov 10, 2023 3   @ Duke L 73-78 32%    
  Nov 13, 2023 321   Southern W 94-67 99%    
  Nov 17, 2023 128   Belmont W 90-74 92%    
  Nov 19, 2023 200   Texas Arlington W 86-66 96%    
  Nov 23, 2023 5   @ Michigan St. L 73-77 35%    
  Dec 02, 2023 110   Colgate W 89-74 90%    
  Dec 09, 2023 28   Wisconsin W 75-69 70%    
  Dec 16, 2023 2   Purdue L 74-77 39%    
  Dec 20, 2023 12   Alabama W 86-85 51%    
  Dec 23, 2023 25   Florida Atlantic W 82-79 59%    
  Dec 29, 2023 105   @ California W 76-68 76%    
  Dec 31, 2023 49   @ Stanford W 79-76 59%    
  Jan 04, 2024 33   Colorado W 83-76 71%    
  Jan 06, 2024 62   Utah W 81-71 79%    
  Jan 13, 2024 86   @ Washington St. W 77-71 70%    
  Jan 17, 2024 18   USC W 82-77 65%    
  Jan 20, 2024 19   UCLA W 78-73 66%    
  Jan 25, 2024 118   @ Oregon St. W 77-68 78%    
  Jan 27, 2024 35   @ Oregon W 79-78 54%    
  Feb 01, 2024 105   California W 79-65 88%    
  Feb 04, 2024 49   Stanford W 82-73 76%    
  Feb 08, 2024 62   @ Utah W 78-74 62%    
  Feb 10, 2024 33   @ Colorado W 80-79 52%    
  Feb 17, 2024 65   Arizona St. W 83-73 80%    
  Feb 22, 2024 86   Washington St. W 80-68 84%    
  Feb 24, 2024 74   Washington W 86-75 82%    
  Feb 28, 2024 65   @ Arizona St. W 80-76 64%    
  Mar 02, 2024 35   Oregon W 82-75 72%    
  Mar 07, 2024 19   @ UCLA L 75-76 47%    
  Mar 09, 2024 18   @ USC L 79-80 46%    
Projected Record 21 - 10 14 - 6




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Pac-12 Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 1.1 3.8 6.5 8.1 6.4 3.8 1.4 31.2 1st
2nd 0.0 0.3 1.7 4.5 6.3 4.0 1.5 0.2 18.5 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.2 1.9 4.5 4.6 2.0 0.4 0.0 13.7 3rd
4th 0.0 0.2 1.7 4.0 3.3 1.1 0.1 10.4 4th
5th 0.1 1.3 3.2 2.5 0.7 0.1 7.8 5th
6th 0.0 0.1 0.9 2.3 2.0 0.5 0.0 5.8 6th
7th 0.1 0.6 1.8 1.7 0.4 0.0 4.6 7th
8th 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.3 1.1 0.3 0.0 3.3 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.8 0.9 0.2 0.0 2.2 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 0.4 0.1 0.0 1.4 10th
11th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.8 11th
12th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.3 12th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 1.2 1.8 2.9 4.2 5.8 7.4 9.3 10.5 11.3 12.2 10.9 9.6 6.6 3.8 1.4 Total



Pac-12 Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 1.4    1.4
19-1 100.0% 3.8    3.8 0.0
18-2 96.8% 6.4    5.8 0.6 0.0
17-3 84.4% 8.1    6.3 1.7 0.1
16-4 59.4% 6.5    3.9 2.1 0.4 0.0
15-5 31.1% 3.8    1.5 1.7 0.5 0.1 0.0
14-6 9.8% 1.1    0.2 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0
13-7 1.6% 0.2    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0% 0.0    0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 31.2% 31.2 22.9 6.6 1.4 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 1.4% 100.0% 53.2% 46.8% 1.1 1.2 0.2 0.0 100.0%
19-1 3.8% 100.0% 48.6% 51.4% 1.3 2.9 0.8 0.1 0.0 100.0%
18-2 6.6% 100.0% 40.0% 60.0% 1.5 4.0 2.0 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
17-3 9.6% 100.0% 32.0% 68.0% 2.0 3.6 3.5 1.6 0.6 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
16-4 10.9% 100.0% 27.0% 73.0% 2.7 1.8 3.4 3.0 1.6 0.8 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.9%
15-5 12.2% 99.8% 23.3% 76.4% 3.8 0.6 2.0 3.3 2.8 1.8 0.9 0.5 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.7%
14-6 11.3% 98.9% 17.1% 81.8% 4.9 0.1 0.6 1.9 2.4 2.5 1.8 1.1 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.1 98.7%
13-7 10.5% 96.3% 14.5% 81.8% 6.2 0.0 0.1 0.7 1.2 1.9 2.0 1.7 1.2 0.7 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.4 95.7%
12-8 9.3% 87.8% 12.6% 75.2% 7.6 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.9 1.3 1.5 1.5 1.1 0.8 0.5 0.1 0.0 1.1 86.1%
11-9 7.4% 71.1% 9.6% 61.6% 8.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.7 1.0 1.0 0.9 0.8 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.1 68.1%
10-10 5.8% 47.0% 6.4% 40.5% 9.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.7 0.7 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 3.1 43.3%
9-11 4.2% 24.1% 6.8% 17.4% 10.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 3.2 18.6%
8-12 2.9% 10.7% 5.7% 5.1% 12.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 2.6 5.4%
7-13 1.8% 5.1% 5.0% 0.1% 14.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.7 0.1%
6-14 1.2% 4.5% 4.5% 15.8 0.0 0.0 1.1
5-15 0.6% 2.9% 2.9% 16.0 0.0 0.5
4-16 0.3% 1.5% 1.5% 15.9 0.0 0.0 0.3
3-17 0.1% 0.1
2-18 0.0% 0.0
1-19 0.0% 0.0
0-20 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 83.4% 20.4% 63.0% 4.6 14.3 12.6 11.1 9.0 8.2 6.9 5.9 4.7 3.8 3.2 2.7 0.6 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 16.6 79.1%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.2% 100.0% 1.1 90.9 9.1