Preseason Rankings
Florida Atlantic
American Athletic
2023-24
Overall
Predictive Rating+12.7#25
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace69.2#148
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+7.2#19
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+5.5#41
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.7% 0.9% 0.2%
#1 Seed 4.1% 5.1% 1.0%
Top 2 Seed 8.9% 10.8% 2.7%
Top 4 Seed 19.8% 23.4% 8.1%
Top 6 Seed 30.6% 35.3% 15.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 63.8% 69.0% 46.8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 49.9% 55.8% 33.0%
Average Seed 6.7 6.4 8.0
.500 or above 95.8% 97.6% 89.8%
.500 or above in Conference 95.2% 96.5% 91.0%
Conference Champion 40.0% 43.3% 28.9%
Last Place in Conference 0.1% 0.1% 0.3%
First Four5.3% 5.4% 5.1%
First Round61.5% 66.6% 44.7%
Second Round40.8% 45.3% 25.9%
Sweet Sixteen20.7% 23.8% 10.8%
Elite Eight10.1% 11.7% 4.7%
Final Four4.9% 5.8% 2.0%
Championship Game2.1% 2.6% 0.7%
National Champion1.0% 1.2% 0.3%

Next Game: Loyola Chicago (Neutral) - 76.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 11 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a1 - 21 - 2
Quad 1b1 - 12 - 3
Quad 25 - 27 - 5
Quad 39 - 216 - 7
Quad 46 - 022 - 7


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 08, 2023 96   Loyola Chicago W 74-66 77%    
  Nov 14, 2023 315   Eastern Michigan W 88-64 99%    
  Nov 18, 2023 208   Bryant W 88-70 95%    
  Nov 23, 2023 88   Butler W 72-65 74%    
  Nov 30, 2023 84   Liberty W 73-64 80%    
  Dec 02, 2023 80   College of Charleston W 82-73 79%    
  Dec 04, 2023 21   Illinois L 75-76 48%    
  Dec 13, 2023 196   Florida International W 84-67 93%    
  Dec 16, 2023 78   St. Bonaventure W 73-67 70%    
  Dec 23, 2023 11   Arizona L 79-82 41%    
  Dec 30, 2023 159   @ Florida Gulf Coast W 77-68 78%    
  Jan 02, 2024 146   East Carolina W 79-65 88%    
  Jan 06, 2024 156   @ Charlotte W 69-60 77%    
  Jan 11, 2024 99   @ Tulane W 82-77 66%    
  Jan 14, 2024 77   UAB W 81-72 77%    
  Jan 18, 2024 95   Wichita St. W 76-65 82%    
  Jan 21, 2024 249   @ Texas San Antonio W 82-68 89%    
  Jan 24, 2024 178   @ Rice W 82-72 79%    
  Jan 28, 2024 90   North Texas W 65-55 80%    
  Feb 03, 2024 233   Tulsa W 83-64 95%    
  Feb 08, 2024 77   @ UAB W 78-75 60%    
  Feb 11, 2024 95   @ Wichita St. W 73-68 65%    
  Feb 15, 2024 138   Temple W 77-63 87%    
  Feb 18, 2024 145   @ South Florida W 77-69 75%    
  Feb 22, 2024 101   SMU W 80-69 83%    
  Feb 25, 2024 27   @ Memphis L 76-79 41%    
  Mar 02, 2024 99   Tulane W 85-74 82%    
  Mar 06, 2024 90   @ North Texas W 62-58 63%    
  Mar 09, 2024 27   Memphis W 79-76 60%    
Projected Record 22 - 7 13 - 5




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected American Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 1.4 5.1 9.9 11.2 8.6 3.6 40.0 1st
2nd 0.1 1.9 6.0 7.9 4.9 1.3 0.0 22.2 2nd
3rd 0.1 1.2 4.4 4.8 1.7 0.2 12.3 3rd
4th 0.0 0.7 3.0 3.3 1.0 0.1 8.1 4th
5th 0.0 0.2 1.9 2.7 0.8 0.1 5.7 5th
6th 0.0 0.1 1.1 1.9 0.7 0.0 3.8 6th
7th 0.0 0.5 1.4 0.7 0.1 2.8 7th
8th 0.0 0.1 0.8 0.8 0.1 0.0 1.9 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 0.4 0.7 0.1 0.0 1.3 9th
10th 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.9 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.7 11th
12th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.3 12th
13th 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 13th
14th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 14th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.2 2.4 3.7 5.4 7.8 10.5 13.2 14.8 15.0 12.5 8.7 3.6 Total



American Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 3.6    3.6
17-1 99.8% 8.6    8.3 0.4
16-2 89.7% 11.2    9.1 2.1 0.0
15-3 65.9% 9.9    5.9 3.4 0.5 0.0
14-4 34.6% 5.1    1.8 2.3 0.8 0.1 0.0
13-5 10.2% 1.4    0.2 0.5 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0
12-6 1.5% 0.2    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 40.0% 40.0 28.9 8.8 2.0 0.3 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 3.6% 99.9% 61.9% 38.0% 1.9 1.7 1.1 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.6%
17-1 8.7% 99.2% 51.3% 47.8% 3.0 1.9 2.1 1.7 1.4 0.7 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 98.3%
16-2 12.5% 96.6% 42.2% 54.4% 4.8 0.5 1.2 2.0 2.4 2.0 1.4 1.0 0.6 0.5 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.4 94.2%
15-3 15.0% 90.3% 33.7% 56.5% 6.8 0.0 0.2 0.7 1.6 1.9 2.1 1.8 1.6 1.5 1.2 0.8 0.1 1.5 85.3%
14-4 14.8% 77.7% 27.5% 50.2% 8.4 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.6 1.2 1.3 1.7 2.1 2.2 1.7 0.3 0.0 3.3 69.3%
13-5 13.2% 57.2% 21.0% 36.1% 9.7 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.8 1.3 2.2 2.2 0.4 0.0 5.7 45.8%
12-6 10.5% 37.7% 17.2% 20.5% 10.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.0 1.7 0.6 0.1 0.0 6.6 24.8%
11-7 7.8% 22.5% 13.2% 9.4% 11.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.9 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 6.0 10.8%
10-8 5.4% 13.6% 10.6% 3.0% 11.7 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 4.7 3.4%
9-9 3.7% 7.4% 6.8% 0.6% 12.8 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 3.4 0.6%
8-10 2.4% 5.8% 5.7% 0.1% 13.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.2 0.2%
7-11 1.2% 3.8% 3.8% 14.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.1
6-12 0.7% 1.9% 1.9% 15.9 0.0 0.0 0.7
5-13 0.3% 2.9% 2.9% 16.0 0.0 0.3
4-14 0.1% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 0.1
3-15 0.1% 0.1
2-16 0.0% 0.0
1-17 0.0% 0.0
0-18
Total 100% 63.8% 27.7% 36.1% 6.7 4.1 4.8 5.0 6.0 5.4 5.4 4.8 4.9 5.9 7.2 7.7 2.1 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.1 36.2 49.9%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 1.0% 100.0% 1.4 63.5 30.7 5.7 0.0