IN CC Stats - NCAA Basketball

Preseason Rankings
Austin Peay
Atlantic Sun
2023-24

Overall
Predictive Rating	-3.9	#236
Expected Predictive Rating	+0.0	#1

Pace	63.3	#301
Improvement	-	-

Offense
Total Offense	-1.6	#233

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebound	-	-

Layup/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

Defense
Total Defense	-2.3	#244

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebounds	-	-

Layups/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

	Now	Win Next	Lose Next
#1 Overall Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
#1 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 2 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 4 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 6 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid	5.1%	8.7%	4.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Average Seed	14.5	14.1	14.7

.500 or above	28.9%	49.7%	23.5%
.500 or above in Conference	49.6%	63.5%	46.0%
Conference Champion	6.0%	10.4%	4.8%
Last Place in Conference	9.6%	5.1%	10.8%

First Four	1.2%	1.3%	1.1%
First Round	4.6%	8.1%	3.7%
Second Round	0.3%	0.8%	0.2%
Sweet Sixteen	0.1%	0.1%	0.1%
Elite Eight	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Final Four	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Championship Game	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
National Champion	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%

Next Game: George Mason (Away) - 20.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding

Not in Tournament

Projected Record by Quad
Quad	Projected	Projected Cumulative
Quad 1a	0 - 1	0 - 1
Quad 1b	0 - 1	0 - 1
Quad 2	0 - 3	0 - 4
Quad 3	3 - 7	3 - 11
Quad 4	8 - 5	11 - 16

Date	Opponent		Result/Prediction			Record	Conf		Rating	Offense	Defense
Nov 10, 2023	139	@ George Mason	L	62-71	21%
Nov 17, 2023	155	@ UTEP	L	62-70	24%
Nov 20, 2023	214	Tarleton St.	L	66-67	44%
Nov 26, 2023	153	@ Appalachian St.	L	61-69	24%
Nov 29, 2023	220	Morehead St.	W	65-63	57%
Dec 02, 2023	262	@ Tennessee St.	L	73-74	44%
Dec 09, 2023	154	Murray St.	L	68-70	44%
Dec 12, 2023	171	@ Southern Illinois	L	59-66	27%
Dec 16, 2023	172	@ Western Kentucky	L	65-72	28%
Dec 22, 2023	127	Ohio	L	70-73	39%
Dec 30, 2023	27	@ Memphis	L	64-83	5%
Jan 04, 2024	215	@ Bellarmine	L	62-66	35%
Jan 06, 2024	134	@ Eastern Kentucky	L	69-78	22%
Jan 13, 2024	184	@ Lipscomb	L	69-75	30%
Jan 18, 2024	223	North Alabama	W	72-70	57%
Jan 20, 2024	336	Central Arkansas	W	80-70	80%
Jan 25, 2024	207	@ Stetson	L	67-72	34%
Jan 27, 2024	159	@ Florida Gulf Coast	L	65-73	26%
Jan 31, 2024	246	@ Jacksonville	L	59-61	43%
Feb 03, 2024	280	North Florida	W	74-69	68%
Feb 08, 2024	204	Kennesaw St.	W	70-69	53%
Feb 10, 2024	224	Queens	W	74-72	57%
Feb 15, 2024	336	@ Central Arkansas	W	77-73	62%
Feb 17, 2024	223	@ North Alabama	L	69-73	38%
Feb 24, 2024	184	Lipscomb	L	71-72	50%
Feb 28, 2024	134	Eastern Kentucky	L	72-75	41%
Mar 01, 2024	215	Bellarmine	W	65-63	55%
Projected Record						11 - 16	8 - 8

Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.

Projected Atlantic Sun Finish

	0-16	1-15	2-14	3-13	4-12	5-11	6-10	7-9	8-8	9-7	10-6	11-5	12-4	13-3	14-2	15-1	16-0		Total
1st											0.1	0.5	1.6	1.9	1.2	0.5	0.1		6.0	1st
2nd										0.0	0.9	2.6	2.4	0.9	0.1	0.0			6.9	2nd
3rd									0.0	0.9	3.3	2.9	0.7	0.1					7.9	3rd
4th								0.0	0.6	3.5	3.8	0.8	0.0						8.7	4th
5th								0.3	3.0	4.5	1.3	0.1	0.0						9.2	5th
6th							0.1	2.2	5.2	2.0	0.1								9.6	6th
7th						0.1	1.3	4.9	3.2	0.3	0.0								9.8	7th
8th					0.0	1.0	4.4	3.9	0.5	0.0									9.9	8th
9th				0.0	0.8	3.8	4.3	0.9	0.0										9.8	9th
10th			0.0	0.8	2.9	4.0	1.4	0.0											9.1	10th
11th		0.1	1.0	2.5	2.9	1.1	0.1												7.6	11th
12th	0.2	1.1	1.8	1.6	0.7	0.0													5.4	12th

Total	0.2	1.2	2.8	4.9	7.3	10.0	11.6	12.4	12.5	11.2	9.4	6.9	4.7	2.9	1.4	0.5	0.1			Total

Atlantic Sun Regular Season Championship

Record	Champion	Total		Outright	2-Way	3-Way	4-Way	5-Way	6-Way	7-Way	8-Way
16-0	100.0%	0.1		0.1
15-1	99.7%	0.5		0.5	0.0
14-2	91.6%	1.2		1.0	0.3	0.0
13-3	66.7%	1.9		1.1	0.8	0.1
12-4	33.9%	1.6		0.5	0.8	0.3	0.0	0.0
11-5	7.7%	0.5		0.1	0.2	0.2	0.1	0.0		0.0
10-6	0.8%	0.1		0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
9-7	0.0%
8-8	0.0%

Total	6.0%	6.0		3.1	2.0	0.6	0.2	0.0		0.0

NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf Record	Record Chance		Tourney Bid	Auto	At-Large	Avg Seed		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	No Bid		At-Large if not Auto
16-0	0.1%		56.2%	52.8%	3.4%	11.4						0.0	0.0		0.0		0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0		0.1		7.2%
15-1	0.5%		40.0%	39.3%	0.7%	12.3									0.0		0.0	0.0	0.1	0.1	0.0	0.0		0.3		1.1%
14-2	1.4%		33.2%	32.9%	0.3%	13.1												0.0	0.1	0.2	0.1	0.1		0.9		0.5%
13-3	2.9%		20.5%	20.5%		13.5												0.0	0.1	0.2	0.2	0.1	0.0	2.3
12-4	4.7%		15.6%	15.6%		14.1												0.0	0.0	0.1	0.3	0.2	0.0	4.0
11-5	6.9%		12.6%	12.6%		14.5													0.0	0.1	0.2	0.4	0.1	6.1
10-6	9.4%		7.5%	7.5%		14.9													0.0	0.1	0.1	0.3	0.2	8.7
9-7	11.2%		5.1%	5.1%		15.5													0.0	0.0	0.0	0.2	0.3	10.6
8-8	12.5%		2.7%	2.7%		15.7														0.0	0.0	0.1	0.2	12.2
7-9	12.4%		2.1%	2.1%		16.0																0.0	0.2	12.1
6-10	11.6%		1.4%	1.4%		16.0																0.0	0.2	11.5
5-11	10.0%		0.8%	0.8%		16.0																	0.1	9.9
4-12	7.3%		0.5%	0.5%		16.0																	0.0	7.2
3-13	4.9%		0.1%	0.1%		16.0																	0.0	4.9
2-14	2.8%		0.0%	0.0%		16.0																	0.0	2.8
1-15	1.2%																							1.2
0-16	0.2%																							0.2

Total	100%		5.1%	5.1%	0.0%	14.5						0.0	0.0		0.0		0.0	0.1	0.3	0.8	1.1	1.3	1.5	94.9		0.0%

Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

	Chance	Tourney Bid	Avg Seed	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16
Lose Out	0.1%