Preseason Rankings
Fordham
Atlantic 10
2023-24
Overall
Predictive Rating+0.5#162
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace72.9#55
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense-2.1#248
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+2.6#95
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 3.8% 4.2% 1.7%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.5% 0.6% 0.0%
Average Seed 12.5 12.4 13.5
.500 or above 56.5% 61.0% 31.6%
.500 or above in Conference 41.5% 44.3% 26.5%
Conference Champion 3.2% 3.5% 1.1%
Last Place in Conference 11.3% 10.0% 18.9%
First Four0.5% 0.5% 0.4%
First Round3.6% 3.9% 1.5%
Second Round0.8% 0.9% 0.2%
Sweet Sixteen0.2% 0.2% 0.1%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Wagner (Home) - 84.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 2
Quad 21 - 41 - 6
Quad 34 - 56 - 11
Quad 49 - 215 - 14


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 06, 2023 298   Wagner W 68-57 85%    
  Nov 11, 2023 157   Cornell W 80-77 60%    
  Nov 17, 2023 248   Norfolk St. W 72-67 69%    
  Nov 27, 2023 325   Manhattan W 76-63 88%    
  Nov 30, 2023 314   Fairleigh Dickinson W 81-69 85%    
  Dec 03, 2023 99   Tulane L 78-79 46%    
  Dec 06, 2023 339   NJIT W 76-61 90%    
  Dec 10, 2023 90   North Texas L 56-61 33%    
  Dec 16, 2023 44   @ St. John's L 73-86 13%    
  Dec 21, 2023 335   Central Connecticut St. W 74-60 89%    
  Dec 30, 2023 303   Columbia W 79-68 83%    
  Jan 03, 2024 238   @ George Washington W 76-75 55%    
  Jan 06, 2024 199   La Salle W 74-69 66%    
  Jan 13, 2024 78   @ St. Bonaventure L 64-73 22%    
  Jan 17, 2024 149   Davidson W 69-67 58%    
  Jan 20, 2024 96   Loyola Chicago L 68-69 45%    
  Jan 24, 2024 190   @ Rhode Island L 68-70 44%    
  Jan 27, 2024 94   @ Duquesne L 69-77 26%    
  Jan 31, 2024 129   Richmond W 69-68 54%    
  Feb 03, 2024 102   @ Saint Louis L 71-78 29%    
  Feb 06, 2024 82   Virginia Commonwealth L 68-71 40%    
  Feb 14, 2024 78   St. Bonaventure L 67-70 39%    
  Feb 17, 2024 72   @ Dayton L 59-69 21%    
  Feb 20, 2024 149   @ Davidson L 66-70 38%    
  Feb 23, 2024 94   Duquesne L 72-74 45%    
  Feb 27, 2024 139   George Mason W 70-68 56%    
  Mar 02, 2024 136   @ Saint Joseph's L 71-75 36%    
  Mar 06, 2024 192   @ Massachusetts L 74-75 46%    
  Mar 09, 2024 190   Rhode Island W 71-67 64%    
Projected Record 15 - 14 8 - 10




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic 10 Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.0 0.9 0.5 0.2 0.1 3.2 1st
2nd 0.0 0.1 0.9 1.7 1.1 0.4 0.1 0.0 4.3 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.1 0.9 2.1 1.4 0.3 0.0 4.8 3rd
4th 0.0 0.7 2.6 1.9 0.4 0.0 5.5 4th
5th 0.0 0.3 2.5 2.6 0.6 0.0 6.0 5th
6th 0.1 1.8 3.4 1.2 0.1 6.5 6th
7th 0.0 0.9 4.0 2.1 0.1 7.1 7th
8th 0.0 0.4 3.2 3.4 0.5 0.0 7.5 8th
9th 0.2 2.0 4.2 1.1 0.0 7.5 9th
10th 0.1 1.2 4.2 2.3 0.1 7.9 10th
11th 0.0 0.8 3.6 3.4 0.5 0.0 8.3 11th
12th 0.0 0.5 2.8 3.8 1.1 0.0 8.3 12th
13th 0.0 0.6 2.3 3.8 1.7 0.1 8.5 13th
14th 0.1 0.7 2.3 3.1 1.7 0.2 0.0 8.1 14th
15th 0.3 1.1 2.0 1.9 1.0 0.2 0.0 6.5 15th
Total 0.3 1.2 2.8 4.8 6.9 9.2 10.7 11.2 11.3 10.8 9.2 7.5 5.6 3.9 2.4 1.3 0.6 0.2 0.1 Total



Atlantic 10 Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.1    0.1
17-1 99.7% 0.2    0.2 0.0
16-2 90.7% 0.5    0.4 0.1
15-3 67.6% 0.9    0.5 0.3 0.0
14-4 39.8% 1.0    0.4 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0
13-5 12.9% 0.5    0.1 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-6 1.2% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 3.2% 3.2 1.6 1.1 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.1% 94.2% 37.5% 56.7% 5.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 90.7%
17-1 0.2% 68.4% 46.6% 21.8% 7.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 40.8%
16-2 0.6% 52.1% 28.0% 24.0% 9.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.3 33.4%
15-3 1.3% 29.7% 17.2% 12.5% 10.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.9 15.2%
14-4 2.4% 16.1% 12.6% 3.5% 11.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 2.0 4.0%
13-5 3.9% 9.7% 8.7% 1.1% 12.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 3.5 1.2%
12-6 5.6% 8.0% 7.9% 0.0% 12.6 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.0 5.1 0.0%
11-7 7.5% 6.3% 6.3% 13.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 7.1
10-8 9.2% 4.2% 4.2% 13.5 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 8.8
9-9 10.8% 2.8% 2.8% 14.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 10.5
8-10 11.3% 2.0% 2.0% 14.9 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 11.1
7-11 11.2% 1.3% 1.3% 15.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 11.1
6-12 10.7% 0.9% 0.9% 15.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 10.6
5-13 9.2% 0.6% 0.6% 16.0 0.1 9.2
4-14 6.9% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.0 6.9
3-15 4.8% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 4.8
2-16 2.8% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 2.8
1-17 1.2% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 1.2
0-18 0.3% 0.3
Total 100% 3.8% 3.3% 0.5% 12.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.8 0.8 0.5 0.4 0.3 96.2 0.5%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.0% 100.0% 3.1 32.0 32.0 32.0 4.0