Preseason Rankings
Georgia St.
Sun Belt
2023-24
Overall
Predictive Rating-2.0#206
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace67.4#192
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense-1.5#231
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense-0.5#189
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 5.0% 8.2% 4.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.9 13.4 14.2
.500 or above 39.8% 61.1% 33.1%
.500 or above in Conference 46.2% 59.9% 41.9%
Conference Champion 4.9% 8.6% 3.7%
Last Place in Conference 9.2% 5.0% 10.5%
First Four0.7% 0.8% 0.7%
First Round4.7% 7.8% 3.7%
Second Round0.5% 1.1% 0.3%
Sweet Sixteen0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Belmont (Away) - 24.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 21 - 31 - 4
Quad 34 - 64 - 11
Quad 48 - 412 - 15


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 06, 2023 128   @ Belmont L 70-77 24%    
  Nov 11, 2023 319   @ Western Michigan W 71-67 64%    
  Nov 17, 2023 240   Northern Illinois W 74-69 68%    
  Nov 19, 2023 275   Arkansas Little Rock W 80-73 74%    
  Nov 22, 2023 275   @ Arkansas Little Rock W 77-76 54%    
  Nov 25, 2023 156   @ Charlotte L 59-65 30%    
  Dec 02, 2023 204   @ Kennesaw St. L 69-72 39%    
  Dec 09, 2023 237   @ Mercer L 66-67 47%    
  Dec 16, 2023 50   @ BYU L 65-80 10%    
  Dec 30, 2023 198   Arkansas St. W 67-65 58%    
  Jan 04, 2024 152   @ Southern Miss L 68-74 30%    
  Jan 06, 2024 177   @ South Alabama L 65-70 35%    
  Jan 11, 2024 180   Old Dominion W 66-65 55%    
  Jan 13, 2024 229   Georgia Southern W 70-66 64%    
  Jan 17, 2024 153   @ Appalachian St. L 63-69 30%    
  Jan 20, 2024 229   @ Georgia Southern L 67-69 45%    
  Jan 24, 2024 135   @ Marshall L 73-80 28%    
  Jan 27, 2024 270   @ Coastal Carolina W 73-72 53%    
  Feb 01, 2024 153   Appalachian St. L 65-66 49%    
  Feb 03, 2024 218   Troy W 71-67 62%    
  Feb 07, 2024 176   @ Louisiana L 69-74 34%    
  Feb 15, 2024 121   @ James Madison L 70-78 26%    
  Feb 17, 2024 180   @ Old Dominion L 63-68 36%    
  Feb 21, 2024 270   Coastal Carolina W 76-69 72%    
  Feb 24, 2024 193   Texas St. W 66-64 58%    
  Feb 28, 2024 121   James Madison L 73-75 45%    
  Mar 01, 2024 135   Marshall L 76-77 46%    
Projected Record 12 - 15 8 - 10




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Sun Belt Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 0.8 1.4 1.4 0.8 0.3 0.1 4.9 1st
2nd 0.0 0.2 1.4 2.2 1.4 0.3 0.0 0.0 5.5 2nd
3rd 0.2 1.5 2.8 1.5 0.3 0.0 6.3 3rd
4th 0.1 1.2 3.1 1.7 0.3 0.0 6.5 4th
5th 0.0 0.8 3.3 2.6 0.4 0.0 7.0 5th
6th 0.0 0.4 2.9 3.4 0.8 0.0 7.6 6th
7th 0.1 1.9 4.2 1.3 0.1 7.7 7th
8th 0.1 1.3 4.2 2.4 0.3 0.0 8.1 8th
9th 0.0 0.8 3.5 3.7 0.5 0.0 8.5 9th
10th 0.0 0.5 2.9 4.1 1.0 0.0 8.5 10th
11th 0.0 0.5 2.2 3.8 1.7 0.2 8.4 11th
12th 0.0 0.0 0.4 2.0 3.5 2.0 0.3 8.3 12th
13th 0.0 0.1 0.6 2.0 2.6 1.6 0.3 0.0 7.3 13th
14th 0.2 0.8 1.5 1.6 0.9 0.2 0.0 5.2 14th
Total 0.2 0.9 2.1 4.1 6.1 8.1 9.8 11.1 11.4 10.9 9.7 8.3 6.5 4.8 3.1 1.7 0.8 0.3 0.1 Total



Sun Belt Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.1    0.1
17-1 99.8% 0.3    0.3 0.0
16-2 93.8% 0.8    0.6 0.1 0.0
15-3 79.7% 1.4    1.0 0.4 0.0
14-4 44.7% 1.4    0.6 0.6 0.1 0.0
13-5 16.9% 0.8    0.2 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0
12-6 3.3% 0.2    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.2% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 4.9% 4.9 2.7 1.5 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.1% 73.6% 56.6% 17.0% 9.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 39.1%
17-1 0.3% 50.6% 40.7% 9.9% 11.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 16.7%
16-2 0.8% 39.7% 37.9% 1.7% 11.8 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.5 2.8%
15-3 1.7% 25.7% 25.2% 0.5% 12.5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 1.3 0.7%
14-4 3.1% 17.9% 17.8% 0.1% 13.0 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 2.6 0.2%
13-5 4.8% 15.7% 15.7% 13.4 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 4.0
12-6 6.5% 10.7% 10.7% 13.9 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.0 5.8
11-7 8.3% 7.9% 7.9% 14.4 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.1 7.7
10-8 9.7% 4.7% 4.7% 15.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 9.2
9-9 10.9% 3.6% 3.6% 15.5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 10.5
8-10 11.4% 2.0% 2.0% 15.8 0.0 0.0 0.2 11.2
7-11 11.1% 1.0% 1.0% 16.0 0.0 0.1 11.0
6-12 9.8% 1.0% 1.0% 16.0 0.1 9.7
5-13 8.1% 0.7% 0.7% 16.0 0.1 8.0
4-14 6.1% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.0 6.0
3-15 4.1% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.0 4.0
2-16 2.1% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 2.1
1-17 0.9% 0.9
0-18 0.2% 0.2
Total 100% 5.0% 4.9% 0.1% 13.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.7 1.0 1.1 0.9 0.9 95.0 0.1%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.0%