IN CC Stats - NCAA Basketball

Preseason Rankings
Monmouth
Colonial Athletic
2023-24

Overall
Predictive Rating	-8.2	#311
Expected Predictive Rating	+0.0	#1

Pace	70.4	#122
Improvement	-	-

Offense
Total Offense	-5.4	#325

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebound	-	-

Layup/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

Defense
Total Defense	-2.8	#261

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebounds	-	-

Layups/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

	Now	Win Next	Lose Next
#1 Overall Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
#1 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 2 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 4 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 6 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid	0.5%	1.2%	0.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Average Seed	15.1	14.6	15.3

.500 or above	9.8%	25.2%	7.9%
.500 or above in Conference	22.3%	36.1%	20.6%
Conference Champion	0.4%	0.8%	0.3%
Last Place in Conference	15.7%	7.5%	16.7%

First Four	0.2%	0.2%	0.2%
First Round	0.4%	1.1%	0.3%
Second Round	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Sweet Sixteen	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Elite Eight	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Final Four	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Championship Game	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
National Champion	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%

Next Game: George Mason (Away) - 11.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding

Not in Tournament

Projected Record by Quad
Quad	Projected	Projected Cumulative
Quad 1a	0 - 1	0 - 1
Quad 1b	0 - 2	0 - 3
Quad 2	0 - 4	0 - 6
Quad 3	1 - 7	2 - 14
Quad 4	8 - 8	10 - 21

Date	Opponent		Result/Prediction			Record	Conf		Rating	Offense	Defense
Nov 06, 2023	139	@ George Mason	L	62-75	11%
Nov 10, 2023	63	@ West Virginia	L	63-83	3%
Nov 18, 2023	130	Princeton	L	67-75	25%
Nov 21, 2023	274	Lehigh	W	73-72	54%
Nov 24, 2023	128	Belmont	L	68-79	17%
Nov 25, 2023	293	Lafayette	L	64-65	46%
Nov 26, 2023	203	@ Penn	L	67-76	20%
Nov 29, 2023	157	@ Cornell	L	72-84	15%
Dec 09, 2023	240	Northern Illinois	L	72-73	46%
Dec 12, 2023	66	@ Seton Hall	L	59-78	5%
Dec 16, 2023	230	Rider	L	68-70	45%
Dec 21, 2023	325	Manhattan	W	71-67	64%
Dec 31, 2023	53	@ Oklahoma	L	57-78	4%
Jan 04, 2024	158	Towson	L	65-71	31%
Jan 08, 2024	228	Northeastern	L	68-70	44%
Jan 11, 2024	140	@ UNC Wilmington	L	61-74	13%
Jan 13, 2024	80	@ College of Charleston	L	67-85	7%
Jan 18, 2024	125	@ Drexel	L	58-72	12%
Jan 20, 2024	312	Hampton	W	75-72	60%
Jan 25, 2024	255	@ Stony Brook	L	64-70	31%
Jan 27, 2024	112	Hofstra	L	67-76	23%
Feb 01, 2024	125	Drexel	L	61-69	26%
Feb 03, 2024	194	@ Delaware	L	66-76	21%
Feb 08, 2024	302	William & Mary	W	69-67	57%
Feb 10, 2024	228	@ Northeastern	L	65-73	26%
Feb 15, 2024	294	Campbell	W	68-66	56%
Feb 17, 2024	255	Stony Brook	L	66-67	50%
Feb 22, 2024	158	@ Towson	L	62-74	17%
Feb 24, 2024	352	N.C. A&T	W	76-69	73%
Feb 29, 2024	312	@ Hampton	L	72-75	41%
Mar 02, 2024	309	@ Elon	L	67-70	40%
Projected Record						10 - 21	6 - 12

Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.

Projected Colonial Athletic Finish

	0-18	1-17	2-16	3-15	4-14	5-13	6-12	7-11	8-10	9-9	10-8	11-7	12-6	13-5	14-4	15-3	16-2	17-1	18-0		Total
1st													0.0	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.0	0.0	0.0		0.4	1st
2nd												0.0	0.2	0.4	0.3	0.1	0.0				1.1	2nd
3rd										0.0	0.0	0.4	0.8	0.5	0.1	0.0					1.8	3rd
4th										0.0	0.4	1.3	1.0	0.2	0.0						2.9	4th
5th									0.0	0.5	1.8	1.6	0.3	0.0							4.2	5th
6th								0.0	0.4	2.2	2.4	0.6	0.0								5.5	6th
7th							0.0	0.3	2.3	3.2	1.1	0.1	0.0								7.1	7th
8th						0.0	0.2	2.1	4.2	1.8	0.1	0.0									8.4	8th
9th						0.1	1.8	4.7	2.8	0.4	0.0										9.7	9th
10th					0.1	1.7	5.4	3.7	0.6	0.0											11.5	10th
11th				0.1	1.5	5.2	4.8	1.0	0.0												12.5	11th
12th			0.2	1.6	5.0	4.8	1.2	0.1	0.0												12.8	12th
13th		0.3	2.2	4.7	4.2	1.3	0.1														12.8	13th
14th	0.7	2.3	3.3	2.2	0.7	0.1	0.0														9.2	14th

Total	0.7	2.6	5.6	8.6	11.4	13.2	13.5	11.8	10.3	8.1	5.9	3.9	2.3	1.2	0.6	0.2	0.1	0.0	0.0			Total

Colonial Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record	Champion	Total		Outright	2-Way	3-Way	4-Way	5-Way	6-Way	7-Way	8-Way
18-0	100.0%	0.0		0.0
17-1	100.0%	0.0		0.0	0.0
16-2	51.8%	0.0		0.0	0.0	0.0
15-3	51.1%	0.1		0.1	0.0	0.0	0.0
14-4	19.5%	0.1		0.0	0.1	0.0	0.0
13-5	5.0%	0.1		0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
12-6	0.2%	0.0			0.0
11-7	0.0%
10-8	0.0%
9-9	0.0%

Total	0.4%	0.4		0.1	0.1	0.1	0.0	0.0

NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf Record	Record Chance		Tourney Bid	Auto	At-Large	Avg Seed		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	No Bid		At-Large if not Auto
18-0	0.0%																0.0							0.0
17-1	0.0%																	0.0						0.0
16-2	0.1%		20.1%	20.1%		13.3													0.0		0.0	0.0		0.1
15-3	0.2%		12.6%	12.6%		13.0												0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0		0.2
14-4	0.6%		5.7%	5.7%		14.4													0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.6
13-5	1.2%		5.1%	5.1%		14.6													0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	1.1
12-6	2.3%		3.1%	3.1%		14.8														0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	2.3
11-7	3.9%		1.8%	1.8%		15.2															0.0	0.0	0.0	3.8
10-8	5.9%		1.3%	1.3%		15.8																0.0	0.1	5.8
9-9	8.1%		0.7%	0.7%		15.8																0.0	0.0	8.0
8-10	10.3%		0.3%	0.3%		15.9																0.0	0.0	10.2
7-11	11.8%		0.2%	0.2%		16.0																	0.0	11.8
6-12	13.5%		0.1%	0.1%		16.0																	0.0	13.5
5-13	13.2%		0.1%	0.1%		16.0																	0.0	13.2
4-14	11.4%		0.1%	0.1%		16.0																	0.0	11.4
3-15	8.6%																							8.6
2-16	5.6%																							5.6
1-17	2.6%																							2.6
0-18	0.7%																							0.7

Total	100%		0.5%	0.5%	0.0%	15.1											0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.1	0.1	0.2	99.5		0.0%

Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

	Chance	Tourney Bid	Avg Seed	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16
Lose Out	0.1%