Preseason Rankings
New Mexico St.
Conference USA
2023-24
Overall
Predictive Rating+0.4#167
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace71.7#86
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+0.6#150
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense-0.2#183
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.2% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.2% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.3% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.1% 1.3% 0.1%
NCAA Tourney Bid 8.2% 19.4% 7.7%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.5% 3.3% 0.4%
Average Seed 13.1 11.5 13.3
.500 or above 38.8% 70.6% 37.2%
.500 or above in Conference 50.7% 69.4% 49.8%
Conference Champion 9.2% 18.5% 8.7%
Last Place in Conference 14.3% 6.1% 14.7%
First Four1.5% 1.8% 1.5%
First Round7.6% 18.4% 7.1%
Second Round1.4% 5.0% 1.2%
Sweet Sixteen0.3% 1.1% 0.3%
Elite Eight0.1% 0.4% 0.1%
Final Four0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Kentucky (Away) - 4.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 3
Quad 21 - 42 - 7
Quad 34 - 66 - 13
Quad 45 - 211 - 15


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 06, 2023 13   @ Kentucky L 64-82 5%    
  Nov 11, 2023 97   @ UC Irvine L 70-77 25%    
  Nov 18, 2023 251   Northern Colorado W 81-73 77%    
  Nov 21, 2023 111   Fresno St. L 66-69 38%    
  Nov 26, 2023 124   @ Louisville L 70-75 32%    
  Dec 02, 2023 55   @ New Mexico L 75-87 15%    
  Dec 15, 2023 55   New Mexico L 78-84 31%    
  Dec 19, 2023 115   @ Stephen F. Austin L 72-78 31%    
  Dec 22, 2023 233   @ Tulsa W 75-74 54%    
  Dec 30, 2023 186   California Baptist W 71-67 64%    
  Jan 04, 2024 155   UTEP W 72-69 59%    
  Jan 11, 2024 196   @ Florida International L 76-77 46%    
  Jan 18, 2024 172   Western Kentucky W 74-71 62%    
  Jan 20, 2024 137   Middle Tennessee W 73-72 55%    
  Jan 25, 2024 117   @ Sam Houston St. L 66-71 32%    
  Jan 27, 2024 120   @ Louisiana Tech L 69-74 32%    
  Feb 01, 2024 84   Liberty L 68-71 40%    
  Feb 03, 2024 221   Jacksonville St. W 73-67 70%    
  Feb 10, 2024 155   @ UTEP L 69-72 39%    
  Feb 15, 2024 137   @ Middle Tennessee L 70-75 36%    
  Feb 17, 2024 172   @ Western Kentucky L 71-74 42%    
  Feb 22, 2024 117   Sam Houston St. W 69-68 52%    
  Feb 24, 2024 120   Louisiana Tech W 72-71 53%    
  Feb 29, 2024 84   @ Liberty L 65-74 23%    
  Mar 02, 2024 221   @ Jacksonville St. W 71-70 51%    
  Mar 09, 2024 196   Florida International W 79-74 66%    
Projected Record 11 - 15 8 - 8




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference USA Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.4 1.4 2.4 2.6 1.6 0.6 0.2 9.2 1st
2nd 0.0 0.7 3.0 3.9 2.4 0.7 0.1 10.7 2nd
3rd 0.0 1.0 4.2 4.7 1.7 0.3 0.0 11.8 3rd
4th 0.0 0.9 4.6 4.9 1.4 0.1 11.9 4th
5th 0.0 1.0 4.9 5.3 1.3 0.0 12.6 5th
6th 0.1 1.0 4.5 5.1 1.2 0.1 12.0 6th
7th 0.1 1.6 4.4 4.5 1.2 0.0 11.9 7th
8th 0.0 0.5 2.3 4.0 3.3 0.9 0.0 11.0 8th
9th 0.4 1.2 2.6 2.7 1.7 0.4 0.0 9.0 9th
Total 0.4 1.2 3.0 5.1 7.3 9.3 10.9 12.1 12.2 11.1 9.4 7.2 5.0 3.2 1.7 0.6 0.2 Total



Conference USA Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0 100.0% 0.2    0.2
15-1 100.0% 0.6    0.6 0.0
14-2 94.8% 1.6    1.4 0.2
13-3 79.6% 2.6    1.8 0.7 0.1
12-4 47.6% 2.4    1.1 1.0 0.3 0.0
11-5 20.0% 1.4    0.3 0.7 0.4 0.1 0.0
10-6 3.7% 0.4    0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0
9-7 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0
8-8 0.0%
Total 9.2% 9.2 5.4 2.7 0.9 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0 0.2% 87.9% 47.0% 40.8% 7.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 77.1%
15-1 0.6% 70.2% 49.5% 20.7% 9.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 41.0%
14-2 1.7% 46.6% 39.1% 7.5% 11.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.9 12.3%
13-3 3.2% 32.0% 29.0% 3.0% 11.9 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0 2.2 4.2%
12-4 5.0% 21.9% 21.0% 0.9% 12.4 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 3.9 1.1%
11-5 7.2% 16.5% 16.3% 0.3% 12.9 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 6.0 0.3%
10-6 9.4% 10.5% 10.5% 13.7 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.1 8.4
9-7 11.1% 7.6% 7.6% 14.6 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.2 10.3
8-8 12.2% 5.6% 5.6% 15.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 11.5
7-9 12.1% 3.9% 3.9% 15.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 11.7
6-10 10.9% 2.8% 2.8% 16.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 10.6
5-11 9.3% 1.6% 1.6% 16.0 0.0 0.1 9.1
4-12 7.3% 0.8% 0.8% 16.0 0.1 7.2
3-13 5.1% 0.6% 0.6% 16.0 0.0 5.0
2-14 3.0% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 3.0
1-15 1.2% 1.2
0-16 0.4% 0.4
Total 100% 8.2% 7.8% 0.5% 13.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 1.0 1.8 1.5 0.9 0.9 1.6 91.8 0.5%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.1%