Preseason Rankings
New Mexico
Mountain West
2023-24
Overall
Predictive Rating+9.3#55
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace77.6#16
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+7.4#18
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+1.8#114
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.8% 0.9% 0.1%
Top 2 Seed 2.2% 2.4% 0.3%
Top 4 Seed 6.7% 7.2% 1.2%
Top 6 Seed 12.6% 13.4% 3.2%
NCAA Tourney Bid 39.4% 41.0% 18.9%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 28.6% 30.2% 11.3%
Average Seed 8.0 8.0 9.5
.500 or above 88.8% 90.3% 69.9%
.500 or above in Conference 77.8% 79.2% 60.8%
Conference Champion 19.3% 20.1% 8.4%
Last Place in Conference 2.3% 2.0% 5.9%
First Four5.5% 5.6% 3.8%
First Round36.7% 38.3% 16.9%
Second Round20.2% 21.2% 7.5%
Sweet Sixteen8.5% 9.0% 2.5%
Elite Eight3.5% 3.8% 0.7%
Final Four1.5% 1.6% 0.2%
Championship Game0.6% 0.7% 0.0%
National Champion0.3% 0.3% 0.0%

Next Game: Texas Southern (Home) - 92.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b1 - 22 - 4
Quad 24 - 35 - 7
Quad 39 - 314 - 9
Quad 46 - 120 - 10


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 06, 2023 222   Texas Southern W 87-72 92%    
  Nov 09, 2023 26   @ St. Mary's L 67-73 28%    
  Nov 16, 2023 200   Texas Arlington W 83-69 90%    
  Nov 21, 2023 132   Toledo W 89-82 73%    
  Nov 22, 2023 178   Rice W 89-79 81%    
  Nov 24, 2023 191   Pepperdine W 91-81 81%    
  Nov 29, 2023 120   Louisiana Tech W 82-72 80%    
  Dec 02, 2023 167   New Mexico St. W 87-75 85%    
  Dec 06, 2023 150   UC Santa Barbara W 81-70 83%    
  Dec 09, 2023 144   Santa Clara W 87-79 75%    
  Dec 15, 2023 167   @ New Mexico St. W 84-78 69%    
  Dec 20, 2023 97   UC Irvine W 83-76 73%    
  Jan 02, 2024 71   @ Colorado St. L 78-79 46%    
  Jan 06, 2024 163   Wyoming W 83-71 84%    
  Jan 09, 2024 91   @ UNLV W 82-81 52%    
  Jan 13, 2024 31   San Diego St. W 75-74 51%    
  Jan 16, 2024 83   Utah St. W 83-77 70%    
  Jan 20, 2024 166   @ Air Force W 75-69 68%    
  Jan 24, 2024 147   @ San Jose St. W 75-70 66%    
  Jan 28, 2024 79   Nevada W 80-74 68%    
  Jan 31, 2024 54   Boise St. W 78-75 60%    
  Feb 06, 2024 163   @ Wyoming W 80-74 69%    
  Feb 10, 2024 91   UNLV W 85-78 72%    
  Feb 13, 2024 79   @ Nevada L 76-77 49%    
  Feb 16, 2024 31   @ San Diego St. L 71-77 32%    
  Feb 21, 2024 71   Colorado St. W 81-76 65%    
  Feb 24, 2024 166   Air Force W 78-66 83%    
  Mar 02, 2024 54   @ Boise St. L 75-78 40%    
  Mar 06, 2024 111   Fresno St. W 77-68 76%    
  Mar 09, 2024 83   @ Utah St. L 80-81 50%    
Projected Record 20 - 10 11 - 7




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Mountain West Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.6 2.2 4.5 5.3 4.0 2.1 0.6 19.3 1st
2nd 0.1 0.9 4.1 6.0 4.2 1.5 0.2 17.0 2nd
3rd 0.1 1.0 4.5 5.6 2.7 0.4 0.0 14.3 3rd
4th 0.0 0.9 4.1 4.9 1.8 0.2 0.0 11.9 4th
5th 0.0 0.8 3.7 3.9 1.5 0.1 10.0 5th
6th 0.0 0.5 2.9 3.7 1.2 0.1 8.4 6th
7th 0.0 0.4 2.2 3.0 1.1 0.1 6.8 7th
8th 0.0 0.3 1.5 2.2 1.0 0.1 5.2 8th
9th 0.0 0.3 1.1 1.5 0.7 0.1 0.0 3.7 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.8 0.8 0.4 0.1 2.4 10th
11th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0 1.2 11th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.8 1.4 2.4 3.8 5.7 7.7 9.6 10.3 11.8 12.1 11.0 9.1 6.9 4.2 2.1 0.6 Total



Mountain West Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.6    0.6
17-1 100.0% 2.1    2.0 0.0
16-2 95.3% 4.0    3.6 0.5 0.0
15-3 77.3% 5.3    3.7 1.5 0.1 0.0
14-4 49.1% 4.5    2.2 1.9 0.4 0.0
13-5 19.5% 2.2    0.6 0.9 0.5 0.1 0.0
12-6 4.6% 0.6    0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0
11-7 0.3% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0% 0.0    0.0
9-9 0.0%
Total 19.3% 19.3 12.8 5.0 1.2 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.6% 100.0% 49.8% 50.2% 2.0 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
17-1 2.1% 98.6% 46.6% 52.0% 2.9 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 97.4%
16-2 4.2% 98.9% 36.0% 62.8% 4.4 0.2 0.5 0.8 1.0 0.7 0.4 0.4 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 98.2%
15-3 6.9% 93.1% 30.6% 62.5% 6.2 0.1 0.1 0.5 0.9 1.1 1.2 0.8 0.6 0.6 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.5 90.1%
14-4 9.1% 82.2% 24.3% 57.9% 7.9 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.0 1.2 1.1 1.2 1.3 0.7 0.0 1.6 76.5%
13-5 11.0% 65.3% 20.4% 44.9% 9.2 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.6 1.0 1.5 1.8 1.6 0.2 0.0 3.8 56.4%
12-6 12.1% 43.1% 14.7% 28.4% 10.2 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.6 2.0 0.4 0.0 6.9 33.3%
11-7 11.8% 25.3% 11.7% 13.5% 10.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.7 1.4 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0 8.8 15.3%
10-8 10.3% 15.1% 9.6% 5.5% 11.4 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.8 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 8.8 6.1%
9-9 9.6% 8.4% 6.8% 1.5% 12.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 8.8 1.7%
8-10 7.7% 4.9% 4.7% 0.2% 13.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 7.3 0.2%
7-11 5.7% 4.5% 4.5% 14.3 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 5.5
6-12 3.8% 3.3% 3.3% 15.3 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 3.7
5-13 2.4% 2.5% 2.5% 15.9 0.0 0.0 0.1 2.3
4-14 1.4% 2.0% 2.0% 16.0 0.0 1.3
3-15 0.8% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.0 0.8
2-16 0.3% 0.3
1-17 0.1% 0.1
0-18 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 39.4% 15.0% 24.3% 8.0 0.8 1.4 1.9 2.6 2.9 3.0 3.1 3.2 4.2 6.0 6.9 2.2 0.4 0.2 0.3 0.2 60.6 28.6%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.2% 100.0% 1.6 51.4 34.5 12.1 1.9