IN CC Stats - NCAA Basketball

Preseason Rankings
Niagara
Metro Atlantic Athletic
2023-24

Overall
Predictive Rating	-5.2	#258
Expected Predictive Rating	+0.0	#1

Pace	60.0	#346
Improvement	-	-

Offense
Total Offense	-4.1	#303

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebound	-	-

Layup/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

Defense
Total Defense	-1.1	#211

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebounds	-	-

Layups/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

	Now	Win Next	Lose Next
#1 Overall Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
#1 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 2 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 4 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 6 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid	6.7%	11.7%	5.7%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Average Seed	14.8	14.5	15.0

.500 or above	48.8%	71.9%	44.2%
.500 or above in Conference	53.8%	69.3%	50.7%
Conference Champion	8.1%	13.8%	7.0%
Last Place in Conference	9.9%	4.3%	11.1%

First Four	1.4%	1.5%	1.4%
First Round	5.9%	10.8%	4.9%
Second Round	0.3%	0.6%	0.3%
Sweet Sixteen	0.0%	0.0%	0.1%
Elite Eight	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Final Four	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Championship Game	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
National Champion	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%

Next Game: Notre Dame (Away) - 16.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding

Not in Tournament

Projected Record by Quad
Quad	Projected	Projected Cumulative
Quad 1a	0 - 0	0 - 0
Quad 1b	0 - 1	0 - 1
Quad 2	0 - 2	0 - 2
Quad 3	2 - 5	2 - 7
Quad 4	12 - 7	13 - 15

Date	Opponent		Result/Prediction			Record	Conf		Rating	Offense	Defense
Nov 06, 2023	133	@ Notre Dame	L	58-68	17%
Nov 11, 2023	331	Bucknell	W	68-60	76%
Nov 25, 2023	358	@ St. Francis (PA)	W	69-63	70%
Dec 01, 2023	279	St. Peter's	W	60-56	65%
Dec 03, 2023	232	Quinnipiac	W	68-67	55%
Dec 06, 2023	78	St. Bonaventure	L	58-67	21%
Dec 16, 2023	339	NJIT	W	68-59	77%
Dec 19, 2023	297	@ Binghamton	L	63-64	47%
Dec 21, 2023	75	@ Syracuse	L	59-74	9%
Dec 29, 2023	216	@ Buffalo	L	67-73	32%
Jan 05, 2024	325	@ Manhattan	W	64-63	55%
Jan 07, 2024	148	@ Iona	L	62-71	21%
Jan 12, 2024	257	Fairfield	W	63-60	60%
Jan 14, 2024	266	Siena	W	66-62	62%
Jan 19, 2024	230	@ Rider	L	61-66	36%
Jan 21, 2024	250	@ Mount St. Mary's	L	60-63	38%
Jan 26, 2024	272	Marist	W	64-60	63%
Jan 28, 2024	325	Manhattan	W	67-60	73%
Feb 02, 2024	279	@ St. Peter's	L	57-59	44%
Feb 06, 2024	269	Canisius	W	67-63	62%
Feb 08, 2024	148	Iona	L	65-68	39%
Feb 16, 2024	257	@ Fairfield	L	60-63	40%
Feb 18, 2024	232	@ Quinnipiac	L	65-70	36%
Feb 23, 2024	269	@ Canisius	L	64-66	42%
Mar 01, 2024	230	Rider	W	64-63	55%
Mar 03, 2024	250	Mount St. Mary's	W	63-60	59%
Mar 07, 2024	266	@ Siena	L	63-65	42%
Mar 09, 2024	272	@ Marist	L	61-63	43%
Projected Record						13 - 15	10 - 10

Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.

Projected Metro Atlantic Athletic Finish

	0-20	1-19	2-18	3-17	4-16	5-15	6-14	7-13	8-12	9-11	10-10	11-9	12-8	13-7	14-6	15-5	16-4	17-3	18-2	19-1	20-0		Total
1st													0.0	0.3	1.0	1.8	2.1	1.7	0.9	0.3	0.1		8.1	1st
2nd												0.0	0.7	2.2	2.9	2.4	1.0	0.2	0.1				9.6	2nd
3rd											0.1	1.1	3.1	3.6	2.0	0.5	0.1	0.0					10.4	3rd
4th									0.0	0.1	1.2	3.8	3.8	1.4	0.2	0.0							10.6	4th
5th									0.1	1.0	3.8	3.7	1.1	0.1	0.0								9.9	5th
6th								0.1	1.0	3.7	3.7	1.1	0.1										9.7	6th
7th							0.0	1.0	3.5	3.8	1.1	0.1											9.6	7th
8th					0.0	0.1	1.0	3.3	3.4	1.1	0.1	0.0											9.0	8th
9th				0.0	0.2	1.2	3.1	2.9	1.1	0.1													8.6	9th
10th		0.0	0.1	0.5	1.6	2.7	2.2	0.8	0.1	0.0													7.9	10th
11th	0.1	0.5	1.1	1.7	1.7	1.1	0.3	0.0															6.4	11th

Total	0.1	0.5	1.2	2.2	3.5	5.0	6.7	8.1	9.1	9.9	10.1	9.9	8.9	7.6	6.2	4.6	3.2	2.0	0.9	0.3	0.1			Total

Metro Atlantic Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record	Champion	Total		Outright	2-Way	3-Way	4-Way	5-Way	6-Way	7-Way	8-Way
20-0	100.0%	0.1		0.1
19-1	100.0%	0.3		0.3	0.0
18-2	94.5%	0.9		0.8	0.1
17-3	88.3%	1.7		1.4	0.3	0.0
16-4	65.1%	2.1		1.4	0.5	0.1
15-5	38.4%	1.8		0.9	0.6	0.2	0.0
14-6	16.7%	1.0		0.3	0.5	0.2	0.0
13-7	3.3%	0.3		0.0	0.1	0.1	0.0	0.0
12-8	0.1%	0.0			0.0	0.0		0.0
11-9	0.0%
10-10	0.0%

Total	8.1%	8.1		5.2	2.1	0.7	0.1	0.0

NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf Record	Record Chance		Tourney Bid	Auto	At-Large	Avg Seed		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	No Bid		At-Large if not Auto
20-0	0.1%		78.4%	78.4%		12.5							0.0		0.0			0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0		0.0
19-1	0.3%		50.4%	50.4%		12.8											0.0	0.0	0.1	0.1	0.0	0.0		0.2
18-2	0.9%		45.7%	45.7%		13.3												0.0	0.1	0.2	0.1	0.0	0.0	0.5
17-3	2.0%		34.8%	34.8%		13.8													0.0	0.2	0.3	0.1	0.0	1.3
16-4	3.2%		26.6%	26.6%		14.4													0.0	0.1	0.3	0.4	0.0	2.3
15-5	4.6%		23.1%	23.1%		14.7													0.0	0.1	0.3	0.5	0.2	3.5
14-6	6.2%		14.9%	14.9%		15.1														0.0	0.2	0.4	0.3	5.2
13-7	7.6%		9.9%	9.9%		15.4														0.0	0.1	0.3	0.4	6.9
12-8	8.9%		7.3%	7.3%		15.7															0.0	0.1	0.5	8.3
11-9	9.9%		4.2%	4.2%		15.8															0.0	0.1	0.4	9.5
10-10	10.1%		3.0%	3.0%		15.9																0.0	0.3	9.8
9-11	9.9%		2.2%	2.2%		16.0																	0.2	9.7
8-12	9.1%		1.1%	1.1%		16.0																	0.1	9.0
7-13	8.1%		0.6%	0.6%		16.0																	0.1	8.1
6-14	6.7%		0.4%	0.4%		16.0																	0.0	6.6
5-15	5.0%		0.5%	0.5%		16.0																	0.0	5.0
4-16	3.5%		0.1%	0.1%		16.0																	0.0	3.5
3-17	2.2%																							2.2
2-18	1.2%																							1.2
1-19	0.5%																							0.5
0-20	0.1%																							0.1

Total	100%		6.7%	6.7%	0.0%	14.8							0.0		0.0		0.0	0.0	0.2	0.6	1.4	2.0	2.4	93.3		0.0%

Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

	Chance	Tourney Bid	Avg Seed	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16
Lose Out	0.0%