Preseason Rankings
Northwestern
Big Ten
2023-24
Overall
Predictive Rating+10.0#47
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace63.1#306
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+4.0#67
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+6.0#35
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.3% 0.3% 0.0%
#1 Seed 1.3% 1.4% 0.3%
Top 2 Seed 3.5% 3.6% 1.0%
Top 4 Seed 9.8% 10.0% 1.9%
Top 6 Seed 18.5% 18.9% 3.8%
NCAA Tourney Bid 43.1% 43.9% 15.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 40.3% 41.1% 14.0%
Average Seed 6.9 6.9 8.2
.500 or above 77.1% 78.0% 45.4%
.500 or above in Conference 47.0% 47.7% 21.5%
Conference Champion 3.6% 3.7% 1.0%
Last Place in Conference 8.0% 7.6% 21.9%
First Four4.5% 4.5% 2.5%
First Round40.9% 41.6% 14.2%
Second Round25.4% 25.9% 7.9%
Sweet Sixteen11.2% 11.4% 2.6%
Elite Eight4.8% 4.9% 0.8%
Final Four2.1% 2.2% 0.2%
Championship Game0.9% 0.9% 0.2%
National Champion0.4% 0.4% 0.2%

Next Game: Binghamton (Home) - 97.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a1 - 51 - 5
Quad 1b2 - 33 - 8
Quad 24 - 37 - 11
Quad 34 - 111 - 12
Quad 46 - 018 - 12


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 06, 2023 297   Binghamton W 76-56 97%    
  Nov 10, 2023 72   Dayton W 64-58 70%    
  Nov 14, 2023 319   Western Michigan W 77-55 98%    
  Nov 18, 2023 190   Rhode Island W 71-60 84%    
  Nov 27, 2023 240   Northern Illinois W 77-60 93%    
  Dec 01, 2023 2   Purdue L 62-67 31%    
  Dec 10, 2023 265   Detroit Mercy W 79-60 95%    
  Dec 13, 2023 324   Chicago St. W 77-55 97%    
  Dec 16, 2023 109   @ DePaul W 71-68 61%    
  Dec 20, 2023 65   Arizona St. W 68-66 56%    
  Dec 29, 2023 245   Jackson St. W 76-58 93%    
  Jan 02, 2024 21   @ Illinois L 67-73 30%    
  Jan 07, 2024 5   Michigan St. L 63-67 38%    
  Jan 10, 2024 76   @ Penn St. W 65-64 50%    
  Jan 13, 2024 28   @ Wisconsin L 59-64 32%    
  Jan 17, 2024 29   Maryland W 65-64 52%    
  Jan 20, 2024 67   @ Nebraska L 66-67 47%    
  Jan 24, 2024 21   Illinois L 69-70 50%    
  Jan 27, 2024 38   Ohio St. W 68-66 56%    
  Jan 31, 2024 2   @ Purdue L 59-70 17%    
  Feb 03, 2024 113   @ Minnesota W 67-64 61%    
  Feb 07, 2024 67   Nebraska W 69-64 66%    
  Feb 11, 2024 76   Penn St. W 68-62 69%    
  Feb 15, 2024 51   @ Rutgers L 62-65 42%    
  Feb 18, 2024 39   @ Indiana L 66-70 37%    
  Feb 22, 2024 48   Michigan W 69-66 60%    
  Feb 28, 2024 29   @ Maryland L 62-67 33%    
  Mar 02, 2024 42   Iowa W 74-72 58%    
  Mar 06, 2024 5   @ Michigan St. L 60-70 21%    
  Mar 09, 2024 113   Minnesota W 70-61 78%    
Projected Record 18 - 12 9 - 11




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big Ten Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.7 1.1 0.9 0.4 0.1 0.0 3.6 1st
2nd 0.1 0.6 1.6 1.7 1.0 0.2 0.0 5.2 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.1 0.9 2.3 2.1 0.8 0.2 0.0 6.3 3rd
4th 0.1 1.0 3.0 2.5 0.8 0.1 7.4 4th
5th 0.0 0.8 2.9 3.1 1.0 0.1 0.0 7.9 5th
6th 0.0 0.5 2.7 3.6 1.3 0.1 0.0 8.2 6th
7th 0.0 0.3 2.3 3.9 1.7 0.2 0.0 8.4 7th
8th 0.0 0.2 1.7 4.3 2.3 0.2 0.0 8.7 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 1.2 3.9 3.1 0.4 0.0 8.7 9th
10th 0.1 1.0 3.5 3.2 0.7 0.0 8.5 10th
11th 0.1 0.9 3.0 3.1 1.1 0.1 0.0 8.2 11th
12th 0.0 0.1 0.8 2.4 2.9 1.0 0.1 0.0 7.3 12th
13th 0.0 0.2 1.1 2.2 2.2 0.9 0.1 6.6 13th
14th 0.1 0.6 1.1 1.4 1.2 0.4 0.1 4.9 14th
Total 0.1 0.6 1.3 2.6 4.2 5.9 8.0 9.1 10.3 10.9 10.3 9.6 8.5 6.5 4.9 3.4 2.2 1.1 0.5 0.1 0.0 Total



Big Ten Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
19-1 100.0% 0.1    0.1 0.0
18-2 95.7% 0.4    0.4 0.1
17-3 80.6% 0.9    0.7 0.2 0.0 0.0
16-4 48.4% 1.1    0.6 0.4 0.1 0.0
15-5 21.6% 0.7    0.2 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.0
14-6 6.2% 0.3    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
13-7 0.6% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0% 0.0    0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 3.6% 3.6 2.0 1.1 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.0% 100.0% 26.5% 73.5% 1.2 0.0 0.0 100.0%
19-1 0.1% 100.0% 30.4% 69.6% 1.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
18-2 0.5% 100.0% 25.9% 74.1% 1.5 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.0 100.0%
17-3 1.1% 100.0% 20.0% 80.0% 1.9 0.4 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
16-4 2.2% 100.0% 13.7% 86.3% 2.7 0.4 0.7 0.6 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
15-5 3.4% 99.9% 12.4% 87.4% 3.6 0.1 0.5 1.1 0.8 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.8%
14-6 4.9% 99.6% 12.2% 87.4% 4.8 0.1 0.2 0.8 1.0 1.2 0.8 0.4 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.5%
13-7 6.5% 97.6% 8.4% 89.2% 6.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.7 1.3 1.4 1.2 0.8 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.2 97.4%
12-8 8.5% 91.9% 6.0% 85.9% 7.4 0.0 0.3 0.8 1.4 1.7 1.6 1.2 0.7 0.2 0.0 0.7 91.4%
11-9 9.6% 78.4% 4.6% 73.8% 8.6 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.1 1.8 1.7 1.5 0.7 0.0 2.1 77.4%
10-10 10.3% 55.3% 4.3% 50.9% 9.5 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.9 1.3 1.8 1.2 0.1 0.0 4.6 53.2%
9-11 10.9% 22.5% 3.5% 19.0% 10.4 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.8 1.1 0.2 0.0 0.0 8.4 19.7%
8-12 10.3% 7.4% 2.7% 4.7% 11.3 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 9.5 4.8%
7-13 9.1% 2.2% 1.6% 0.6% 13.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 8.9 0.6%
6-14 8.0% 1.3% 1.3% 14.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 7.9
5-15 5.9% 1.0% 1.0% 15.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 5.9
4-16 4.2% 0.9% 0.9% 16.0 0.0 4.2
3-17 2.6% 0.7% 0.7% 16.0 0.0 2.6
2-18 1.3% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 1.3
1-19 0.6% 0.6
0-20 0.1% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.0 0.1
Total 100% 43.1% 4.7% 38.4% 6.9 1.3 2.1 3.0 3.3 4.1 4.5 4.8 5.3 5.0 5.0 3.6 0.6 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 56.9 40.3%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.0% 100.0% 1.3 70.8 29.2