Preseason Rankings
Penn St.
Big Ten
2023-24
Overall
Predictive Rating+6.9#76
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace62.6#318
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+3.8#71
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+3.1#89
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.3% 0.3% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.6% 0.7% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 2.5% 2.5% 0.2%
Top 6 Seed 5.7% 5.8% 0.2%
NCAA Tourney Bid 20.5% 20.8% 3.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 18.6% 18.8% 1.3%
Average Seed 8.0 8.0 11.8
.500 or above 51.4% 51.9% 12.9%
.500 or above in Conference 26.4% 26.7% 4.9%
Conference Champion 1.1% 1.1% 0.2%
Last Place in Conference 19.6% 19.3% 39.2%
First Four3.2% 3.2% 0.5%
First Round19.0% 19.2% 3.1%
Second Round10.1% 10.2% 1.3%
Sweet Sixteen3.8% 3.8% 0.3%
Elite Eight1.5% 1.5% 0.0%
Final Four0.7% 0.7% 0.0%
Championship Game0.3% 0.3% 0.0%
National Champion0.1% 0.1% 0.0%

Next Game: Delaware St. (Home) - 98.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a1 - 61 - 6
Quad 1b2 - 43 - 9
Quad 23 - 36 - 13
Quad 32 - 18 - 14
Quad 47 - 015 - 14


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 06, 2023 355   Delaware St. W 79-56 99%    
  Nov 10, 2023 274   Lehigh W 78-62 93%    
  Nov 14, 2023 358   St. Francis (PA) W 82-58 98%    
  Nov 17, 2023 220   Morehead St. W 70-57 87%    
  Nov 23, 2023 22   Texas A&M L 64-70 29%    
  Dec 02, 2023 331   Bucknell W 77-57 96%    
  Dec 06, 2023 29   @ Maryland L 61-69 23%    
  Dec 09, 2023 38   Ohio St. L 68-69 46%    
  Dec 16, 2023 98   Georgia Tech W 68-66 58%    
  Dec 21, 2023 362   Le Moyne W 83-53 99%    
  Dec 29, 2023 230   Rider W 73-60 88%    
  Jan 04, 2024 5   @ Michigan St. L 59-72 14%    
  Jan 07, 2024 48   Michigan L 67-70 40%    
  Jan 10, 2024 47   Northwestern L 64-65 50%    
  Jan 13, 2024 2   @ Purdue L 58-73 11%    
  Jan 16, 2024 28   Wisconsin L 61-64 42%    
  Jan 20, 2024 38   @ Ohio St. L 65-72 27%    
  Jan 27, 2024 113   Minnesota W 69-63 70%    
  Jan 31, 2024 51   @ Rutgers L 61-67 32%    
  Feb 03, 2024 39   @ Indiana L 65-72 28%    
  Feb 07, 2024 42   Iowa L 74-75 48%    
  Feb 11, 2024 47   @ Northwestern L 62-68 31%    
  Feb 14, 2024 5   Michigan St. L 62-69 29%    
  Feb 17, 2024 67   @ Nebraska L 66-70 37%    
  Feb 21, 2024 21   Illinois L 69-72 39%    
  Feb 24, 2024 39   Indiana L 68-69 46%    
  Feb 27, 2024 42   @ Iowa L 71-78 29%    
  Mar 02, 2024 113   @ Minnesota W 67-66 51%    
  Mar 10, 2024 29   Maryland L 64-66 42%    
Projected Record 15 - 14 7 - 13




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big Ten Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 1.1 1st
2nd 0.1 0.3 0.7 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 2.1 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.1 1.0 0.3 0.1 0.0 3.1 3rd
4th 0.0 0.6 1.5 1.2 0.3 0.0 3.7 4th
5th 0.0 0.5 2.0 1.7 0.5 0.0 4.7 5th
6th 0.0 0.4 2.2 2.4 0.7 0.1 5.7 6th
7th 0.0 0.3 2.0 3.0 1.0 0.1 6.4 7th
8th 0.0 0.2 1.8 3.5 1.6 0.2 0.0 7.3 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 1.4 3.7 2.4 0.4 0.0 8.0 9th
10th 0.1 1.2 4.0 3.3 0.6 0.0 0.0 9.3 10th
11th 0.0 0.2 1.3 3.8 4.0 1.0 0.1 10.3 11th
12th 0.0 0.3 1.7 3.9 4.2 1.4 0.1 0.0 11.6 12th
13th 0.1 0.7 2.7 4.5 3.8 1.5 0.2 0.0 13.5 13th
14th 0.7 2.0 3.2 3.8 2.5 0.7 0.1 0.0 13.0 14th
Total 0.7 2.0 4.0 6.8 8.9 9.8 11.0 11.2 10.2 9.0 7.7 6.3 4.7 3.2 2.1 1.3 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 Total



Big Ten Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
19-1 88.3% 0.0    0.0
18-2 84.4% 0.1    0.1 0.0
17-3 73.4% 0.2    0.2 0.0 0.0
16-4 46.6% 0.3    0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
15-5 23.5% 0.3    0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0
14-6 5.8% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
13-7 0.6% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.1% 0.0    0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 1.1% 1.1 0.5 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.0% 100.0% 32.1% 67.9% 1.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
19-1 0.0% 100.0% 13.3% 86.7% 1.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
18-2 0.1% 100.0% 23.6% 76.4% 1.7 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
17-3 0.3% 100.0% 24.5% 75.5% 2.3 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
16-4 0.6% 100.0% 14.9% 85.1% 3.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
15-5 1.3% 99.4% 11.5% 87.9% 4.3 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.3%
14-6 2.1% 99.5% 9.2% 90.3% 5.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 99.5%
13-7 3.2% 94.1% 6.3% 87.8% 6.9 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 93.7%
12-8 4.7% 83.2% 6.3% 77.0% 8.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.7 1.0 0.9 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.8 82.1%
11-9 6.3% 64.9% 3.7% 61.2% 9.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.8 1.1 1.1 0.6 0.0 2.2 63.5%
10-10 7.7% 38.5% 2.9% 35.6% 9.9 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 1.1 0.9 0.1 4.7 36.7%
9-11 9.0% 14.0% 2.1% 11.9% 10.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 7.7 12.1%
8-12 10.2% 3.0% 1.8% 1.3% 11.8 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 9.9 1.3%
7-13 11.2% 1.8% 1.8% 0.0% 14.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 11.0 0.0%
6-14 11.0% 1.3% 1.3% 15.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 10.8
5-15 9.8% 1.1% 1.1% 15.7 0.0 0.1 9.7
4-16 8.9% 0.6% 0.6% 16.0 0.1 8.9
3-17 6.8% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.0 6.8
2-18 4.0% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 4.0
1-19 2.0% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 2.0
0-20 0.7% 0.7
Total 100% 20.5% 2.4% 18.1% 8.0 0.3 0.4 0.8 1.1 1.4 1.9 2.2 2.9 3.0 3.2 2.5 0.4 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 79.5 18.6%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.0% 100.0% 1.0 96.3 3.7