Preseason Rankings
UMKC
Summit League
2023-24
Overall
Predictive Rating-6.8#286
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace61.4#333
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense-5.5#327
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense-1.3#215
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 4.0% 9.3% 4.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.0 13.9 15.0
.500 or above 25.2% 57.1% 24.8%
.500 or above in Conference 40.7% 64.3% 40.4%
Conference Champion 5.1% 14.8% 5.0%
Last Place in Conference 19.4% 9.8% 19.5%
First Four1.1% 1.1% 1.1%
First Round3.5% 9.3% 3.4%
Second Round0.2% 1.0% 0.2%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Baylor (Away) - 1.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 3
Quad 20 - 20 - 4
Quad 31 - 51 - 9
Quad 48 - 710 - 16


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 14, 2023 14   @ Baylor L 55-79 1%    
  Nov 17, 2023 71   @ Colorado St. L 57-74 6%    
  Nov 24, 2023 119   UNC Greensboro L 57-67 19%    
  Nov 30, 2023 308   Southeast Missouri St. W 72-68 65%    
  Dec 05, 2023 1   @ Kansas L 53-82 1%    
  Dec 09, 2023 356   @ Lindenwood W 68-64 64%    
  Dec 16, 2023 235   @ Bowling Green L 66-72 30%    
  Dec 20, 2023 239   @ East Tennessee St. L 60-66 31%    
  Dec 29, 2023 175   Oral Roberts L 68-72 38%    
  Dec 31, 2023 276   @ St. Thomas L 64-67 38%    
  Jan 03, 2024 252   @ Sacramento St. L 58-63 33%    
  Jan 06, 2024 211   Portland St. L 70-72 45%    
  Jan 11, 2024 201   North Dakota St. L 65-67 43%    
  Jan 13, 2024 267   North Dakota W 67-65 56%    
  Jan 20, 2024 296   @ Nebraska Omaha L 66-69 41%    
  Jan 25, 2024 151   @ South Dakota St. L 60-71 18%    
  Jan 27, 2024 304   South Dakota W 67-63 63%    
  Feb 01, 2024 307   Denver W 70-66 63%    
  Feb 03, 2024 276   St. Thomas W 67-64 58%    
  Feb 08, 2024 201   @ North Dakota St. L 62-70 25%    
  Feb 10, 2024 267   @ North Dakota L 64-68 37%    
  Feb 15, 2024 151   South Dakota St. L 63-68 34%    
  Feb 22, 2024 304   @ South Dakota L 64-66 43%    
  Feb 24, 2024 296   Nebraska Omaha W 69-66 61%    
  Feb 29, 2024 307   @ Denver L 67-69 44%    
  Mar 02, 2024 175   @ Oral Roberts L 65-75 22%    
Projected Record 10 - 16 7 - 9




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Summit League Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.8 1.4 1.5 0.8 0.3 0.1 5.1 1st
2nd 0.0 0.5 2.1 2.8 1.8 0.5 0.0 7.7 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.8 3.2 3.9 1.7 0.2 0.0 9.9 3rd
4th 0.0 1.2 4.9 4.4 1.4 0.2 12.0 4th
5th 0.1 1.4 5.2 4.8 1.3 0.1 0.0 12.8 5th
6th 0.1 1.8 5.5 4.7 0.9 0.0 13.1 6th
7th 0.0 0.3 2.3 5.4 4.4 1.0 0.0 13.5 7th
8th 0.0 0.7 2.9 5.3 3.6 0.7 0.0 13.4 8th
9th 0.6 2.2 3.8 3.7 2.0 0.4 0.0 12.6 9th
Total 0.6 2.2 4.5 7.0 9.7 11.3 12.0 12.1 11.5 9.4 7.6 5.6 3.4 1.9 0.8 0.3 0.1 Total



Summit League Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0 100.0% 0.1    0.1
15-1 100.0% 0.3    0.3 0.0
14-2 95.9% 0.8    0.6 0.1
13-3 75.8% 1.5    0.9 0.5 0.0
12-4 41.9% 1.4    0.7 0.6 0.1 0.0
11-5 15.1% 0.8    0.2 0.4 0.2 0.0
10-6 2.0% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0
9-7 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
8-8 0.0%
Total 5.1% 5.1 2.8 1.7 0.4 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0 0.1% 63.5% 63.5% 12.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
15-1 0.3% 41.0% 41.0% 13.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2
14-2 0.8% 35.5% 35.5% 13.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.5
13-3 1.9% 27.1% 27.1% 14.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.0 1.4
12-4 3.4% 19.2% 19.2% 14.7 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.1 2.8
11-5 5.6% 13.2% 13.2% 15.1 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.3 4.8
10-6 7.6% 7.9% 7.9% 15.4 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 7.0
9-7 9.4% 4.5% 4.5% 15.7 0.0 0.1 0.3 9.0
8-8 11.5% 2.3% 2.3% 15.9 0.0 0.3 11.3
7-9 12.1% 1.3% 1.3% 16.0 0.0 0.2 11.9
6-10 12.0% 0.9% 0.9% 16.0 0.1 11.9
5-11 11.3% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.0 11.2
4-12 9.7% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 9.7
3-13 7.0% 7.0
2-14 4.5% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 4.5
1-15 2.2% 2.2
0-16 0.6% 0.6
Total 100% 4.0% 4.0% 0.0% 15.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.2 1.6 96.0 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.1%