Preseason Rankings
Baylor
Big 12
2023-24
Overall
Predictive Rating+14.4#14
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace67.4#191
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+9.4#6
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+5.0#49
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 2.5% 3.8% 0.9%
#1 Seed 9.7% 13.6% 4.8%
Top 2 Seed 19.0% 25.8% 10.5%
Top 4 Seed 37.1% 46.4% 25.4%
Top 6 Seed 51.8% 61.8% 39.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 74.6% 82.9% 64.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 71.8% 80.6% 61.3%
Average Seed 5.0 4.5 5.7
.500 or above 87.5% 93.7% 79.7%
.500 or above in Conference 71.7% 78.1% 63.6%
Conference Champion 12.8% 16.2% 8.6%
Last Place in Conference 2.7% 1.6% 4.1%
First Four3.6% 3.0% 4.5%
First Round72.9% 81.6% 62.0%
Second Round56.0% 64.9% 44.8%
Sweet Sixteen32.7% 39.7% 23.8%
Elite Eight17.6% 22.0% 12.2%
Final Four9.2% 11.8% 5.9%
Championship Game4.7% 6.1% 2.8%
National Champion2.3% 3.1% 1.3%

Next Game: Auburn (Neutral) - 55.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 4 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a3 - 53 - 5
Quad 1b3 - 26 - 8
Quad 25 - 211 - 9
Quad 33 - 014 - 10
Quad 45 - 019 - 10


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 07, 2023 23   Auburn W 74-73 56%    
  Nov 12, 2023 195   Gardner-Webb W 79-60 96%    
  Nov 14, 2023 286   UMKC W 79-55 99%    
  Nov 22, 2023 118   Oregon St. W 73-61 85%    
  Nov 28, 2023 284   Nicholls St. W 89-65 98%    
  Dec 02, 2023 337   Northwestern St. W 86-58 99%    
  Dec 05, 2023 66   Seton Hall W 75-66 79%    
  Dec 16, 2023 5   Michigan St. L 69-71 42%    
  Dec 20, 2023 3   Duke L 69-72 40%    
  Dec 22, 2023 361   Mississippi Valley W 88-53 99.9%   
  Jan 02, 2024 157   Cornell W 89-72 93%    
  Jan 06, 2024 59   @ Oklahoma St. W 72-70 58%    
  Jan 09, 2024 50   BYU W 79-71 74%    
  Jan 13, 2024 58   Cincinnati W 78-70 76%    
  Jan 16, 2024 32   @ Kansas St. L 75-76 49%    
  Jan 20, 2024 15   @ Texas L 72-75 41%    
  Jan 27, 2024 24   TCU W 77-72 65%    
  Jan 31, 2024 81   @ Central Florida W 71-66 66%    
  Feb 03, 2024 40   Iowa St. W 70-64 70%    
  Feb 06, 2024 41   Texas Tech W 76-69 72%    
  Feb 10, 2024 1   @ Kansas L 71-79 26%    
  Feb 13, 2024 53   Oklahoma W 74-66 74%    
  Feb 17, 2024 63   @ West Virginia W 76-73 60%    
  Feb 20, 2024 50   @ BYU W 76-74 56%    
  Feb 24, 2024 4   Houston W 68-67 52%    
  Feb 26, 2024 24   @ TCU L 74-75 47%    
  Mar 02, 2024 1   Kansas L 74-76 44%    
  Mar 04, 2024 15   Texas W 75-72 60%    
  Mar 09, 2024 41   @ Texas Tech W 73-72 52%    
Projected Record 19 - 10 10 - 8




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big 12 Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 1.1 3.0 3.5 3.2 1.4 0.4 12.8 1st
2nd 0.0 0.3 2.0 4.2 4.1 1.7 0.2 0.0 12.5 2nd
3rd 0.2 1.9 4.4 3.6 1.0 0.1 11.2 3rd
4th 0.0 0.1 1.4 4.4 3.6 0.8 0.0 10.3 4th
5th 0.0 0.9 3.9 3.6 0.8 0.0 9.2 5th
6th 0.4 3.1 3.8 1.1 0.0 8.5 6th
7th 0.1 1.9 3.8 1.4 0.1 0.0 7.3 7th
8th 0.0 0.9 3.5 1.9 0.2 0.0 6.5 8th
9th 0.0 0.4 2.5 2.2 0.3 0.0 5.5 9th
10th 0.0 0.2 1.7 2.5 0.6 0.0 5.1 10th
11th 0.0 0.1 1.0 2.0 0.9 0.1 4.1 11th
12th 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.5 0.9 0.1 0.0 3.3 12th
13th 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.0 0.7 0.1 0.0 2.5 13th
14th 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0 1.4 14th
Total 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.0 2.1 3.6 5.2 7.1 8.7 10.1 10.9 11.4 11.0 9.7 8.1 5.3 3.4 1.4 0.4 Total



Big 12 Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.4    0.4
17-1 99.7% 1.4    1.4 0.1
16-2 93.1% 3.2    2.6 0.5 0.0
15-3 66.7% 3.5    2.1 1.2 0.2 0.0
14-4 37.0% 3.0    1.2 1.3 0.5 0.1 0.0
13-5 11.4% 1.1    0.2 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.0
12-6 1.6% 0.2    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0% 0.0    0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 12.8% 12.8 7.9 3.6 1.1 0.3 0.1



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.4% 100.0% 42.1% 57.9% 1.1 0.3 0.1 100.0%
17-1 1.4% 100.0% 28.2% 71.8% 1.2 1.2 0.2 0.0 100.0%
16-2 3.4% 100.0% 23.8% 76.2% 1.4 2.3 1.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
15-3 5.3% 100.0% 23.5% 76.5% 1.7 2.4 2.0 0.7 0.2 0.0 100.0%
14-4 8.1% 100.0% 17.4% 82.6% 2.3 2.1 2.9 2.0 0.8 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
13-5 9.7% 99.9% 13.0% 86.9% 3.2 1.0 2.0 2.9 2.3 1.0 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.9%
12-6 11.0% 99.7% 11.6% 88.1% 4.3 0.3 1.1 2.5 2.7 2.1 1.3 0.7 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.7%
11-7 11.4% 97.9% 9.9% 88.0% 5.6 0.0 0.2 1.0 1.9 2.5 2.4 1.7 0.9 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.2 97.7%
10-8 10.9% 92.7% 7.0% 85.7% 6.9 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.4 2.0 2.1 1.6 1.1 0.7 0.3 0.0 0.8 92.2%
9-9 10.1% 81.1% 6.0% 75.1% 8.3 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.9 1.4 1.8 1.5 1.4 0.8 0.1 0.0 0.0 1.9 79.9%
8-10 8.7% 47.8% 4.9% 42.9% 9.7 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.7 1.2 1.1 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 4.5 45.1%
7-11 7.1% 18.8% 3.4% 15.4% 10.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.4 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 5.7 15.9%
6-12 5.2% 5.0% 2.4% 2.7% 12.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 4.9 2.7%
5-13 3.6% 2.0% 1.6% 0.3% 14.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 3.5 0.3%
4-14 2.1% 1.6% 1.6% 15.7 0.0 0.0 2.1
3-15 1.0% 1.2% 1.2% 16.0 0.0 1.0
2-16 0.5% 0.5
1-17 0.2% 0.2
0-18 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 74.6% 10.0% 64.6% 5.0 9.7 9.3 9.4 8.6 7.5 7.1 6.2 5.1 3.9 3.8 2.9 0.6 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 25.4 71.8%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.1% 100.0% 1.0 97.5 2.5