Belmont
Missouri Valley
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+1.5#132
Expected Predictive Rating+4.0#112
Pace76.1#34
Improvement-0.7#222

Offense
Total Offense+2.7#100
First Shot+3.0#96
After Offensive Rebound-0.2#196
Layup/Dunks+1.0#140
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.0#120
3 Pt Jumpshots+3.9#72
Freethrows-2.9#321
Improvement-1.0#255

Defense
Total Defense-1.3#210
First Shot+0.0#174
After Offensive Rebounds-1.2#267
Layups/Dunks-1.9#242
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.3#223
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.6#243
Freethrows+3.8#13
Improvement+0.3#146
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 6.0% 6.9% 4.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 12.6 12.5 12.9
.500 or above 78.5% 85.5% 67.7%
.500 or above in Conference 70.3% 74.4% 64.1%
Conference Champion 5.2% 6.2% 3.6%
Last Place in Conference 1.9% 1.5% 2.4%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round6.0% 6.9% 4.5%
Second Round0.8% 0.9% 0.5%
Sweet Sixteen0.2% 0.2% 0.1%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Middle Tennessee (Home) - 60.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 22 - 32 - 5
Quad 36 - 78 - 11
Quad 410 - 218 - 14


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 08, 2024 119   Furman L 74-76 57%     0 - 1 -2.3 +1.7 -4.0
  Nov 12, 2024 105   @ Lipscomb W 80-79 29%     1 - 1 +8.1 +11.6 -3.5
  Nov 15, 2024 286   @ Air Force W 79-71 68%     2 - 1 +4.5 +11.3 -6.0
  Nov 19, 2024 261   Oral Roberts W 90-80 83%     3 - 1 +1.4 +0.6 -0.3
  Nov 26, 2024 181   Loyola Marymount L 63-77 60%     3 - 2 -15.1 -12.1 -2.4
  Nov 27, 2024 220   Tulane W 89-66 68%     4 - 2 +19.8 +16.1 +4.1
  Nov 29, 2024 221   Gardner-Webb W 83-74 77%     5 - 2 +2.8 +2.1 +0.1
  Dec 04, 2024 170   Illinois St. W 99-97 OT 69%     6 - 2 1 - 0 -1.7 +10.1 -12.1
  Dec 07, 2024 128   Middle Tennessee W 79-76 61%    
  Dec 14, 2024 186   @ Richmond L 74-75 49%    
  Dec 19, 2024 57   UC Irvine L 73-78 32%    
  Dec 29, 2024 73   @ Drake L 66-75 20%    
  Jan 01, 2025 113   @ Northern Iowa L 74-79 33%    
  Jan 04, 2025 217   Illinois-Chicago W 85-77 75%    
  Jan 08, 2025 169   Southern Illinois W 80-75 68%    
  Jan 11, 2025 191   @ Indiana St. L 85-86 49%    
  Jan 14, 2025 247   Valparaiso W 84-75 79%    
  Jan 18, 2025 243   @ Evansville W 79-76 60%    
  Jan 21, 2025 71   Bradley L 76-80 37%    
  Jan 25, 2025 117   @ Murray St. L 73-77 35%    
  Jan 29, 2025 170   @ Illinois St. L 76-77 47%    
  Feb 02, 2025 243   Evansville W 82-73 79%    
  Feb 05, 2025 71   @ Bradley L 73-83 19%    
  Feb 08, 2025 165   Missouri St. W 77-72 67%    
  Feb 12, 2025 247   @ Valparaiso W 81-78 60%    
  Feb 15, 2025 169   @ Southern Illinois L 77-78 47%    
  Feb 19, 2025 113   Northern Iowa W 77-76 54%    
  Feb 22, 2025 191   Indiana St. W 89-83 70%    
  Feb 26, 2025 165   @ Missouri St. L 74-75 47%    
  Mar 02, 2025 117   Murray St. W 76-74 55%    
Projected Record 17 - 13 11 - 9




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Missouri Valley Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.3 1.6 1.1 0.6 0.1 0.0 5.2 1st
2nd 0.0 0.3 1.6 3.3 3.1 1.4 0.4 0.0 10.1 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.7 3.1 5.4 3.8 1.3 0.2 0.0 14.5 3rd
4th 0.0 0.8 4.1 6.4 3.5 0.8 0.1 15.7 4th
5th 0.0 0.7 3.9 5.9 2.8 0.6 0.0 13.9 5th
6th 0.0 0.4 3.2 5.5 2.7 0.4 0.0 12.2 6th
7th 0.0 0.3 2.2 4.4 2.5 0.3 0.0 9.7 7th
8th 0.0 0.1 1.3 3.4 2.0 0.3 0.0 7.2 8th
9th 0.1 0.7 2.5 1.7 0.3 0.0 5.2 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.4 1.5 1.2 0.2 0.0 3.4 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.8 0.7 0.2 0.0 2.0 11th
12th 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.9 12th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 1.6 3.1 5.4 8.0 10.6 12.9 13.7 13.0 11.2 8.4 5.8 3.2 1.5 0.6 0.1 0.0 Total



Missouri Valley Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
19-1 100.0% 0.1    0.1 0.0
18-2 94.9% 0.6    0.5 0.1
17-3 73.7% 1.1    0.8 0.3 0.0
16-4 49.4% 1.6    0.8 0.7 0.1 0.0
15-5 21.7% 1.3    0.4 0.6 0.2 0.1
14-6 5.9% 0.5    0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0
13-7 0.5% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.1% 0.0    0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 5.2% 5.2 2.7 1.9 0.5 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.0% 0.0 0.0
19-1 0.1% 55.6% 52.4% 3.2% 10.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 6.7%
18-2 0.6% 26.3% 26.3% 11.5 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.4
17-3 1.5% 25.5% 25.5% 11.7 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.0 1.1
16-4 3.2% 18.8% 18.8% 12.0 0.1 0.5 0.1 2.6
15-5 5.8% 14.1% 14.1% 12.2 0.0 0.6 0.2 0.0 5.0
14-6 8.4% 11.8% 11.8% 12.5 0.0 0.5 0.4 0.1 7.4
13-7 11.2% 8.6% 8.6% 12.7 0.0 0.4 0.4 0.1 0.0 10.2
12-8 13.0% 6.6% 6.6% 13.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.2 0.0 12.1
11-9 13.7% 3.7% 3.7% 13.3 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.0 13.1
10-10 12.9% 2.6% 2.6% 13.4 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.0 12.6
9-11 10.6% 1.6% 1.6% 14.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 10.4
8-12 8.0% 0.7% 0.7% 15.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 8.0
7-13 5.4% 0.5% 0.5% 15.3 0.0 0.0 5.4
6-14 3.1% 0.7% 0.7% 15.8 0.0 0.0 3.1
5-15 1.6% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 1.6
4-16 0.6% 0.6
3-17 0.2% 0.2
2-18 0.1% 0.1
1-19 0.0% 0.0
0-20
Total 100% 6.0% 6.0% 0.0% 12.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.4 2.5 2.1 0.7 0.2 0.0 94.0 0.0%