Air Force
Mountain West
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-7.3#292
Expected Predictive Rating-13.0#338
Pace61.5#344
Improvement-2.2#286

Offense
Total Offense-4.3#286
First Shot-2.3#246
After Offensive Rebound-2.0#295
Layup/Dunks+0.4#162
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.6#272
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.6#160
Freethrows-1.7#283
Improvement-1.5#260

Defense
Total Defense-3.0#258
First Shot-3.1#275
After Offensive Rebounds+0.1#178
Layups/Dunks-0.6#195
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.4#335
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.1#199
Freethrows-0.3#203
Improvement-0.7#233
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed n/a n/a n/a
.500 or above 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
.500 or above in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 91.7% 74.5% 94.8%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Wyoming (Away) - 15.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 40 - 5
Quad 20 - 90 - 15
Quad 31 - 92 - 23
Quad 43 - 54 - 28


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 144   North Alabama L 57-73 29%     0 - 1 -17.4 -11.2 -8.0
  Nov 07, 2024 123   Jacksonville St. W 73-67 24%     1 - 1 +6.1 +6.0 +0.7
  Nov 11, 2024 318   LIU Brooklyn L 54-63 67%     1 - 2 -20.9 -10.6 -11.9
  Nov 15, 2024 140   Belmont L 71-79 28%     1 - 3 -9.2 -0.2 -9.8
  Nov 21, 2024 112   @ California L 69-78 12%     1 - 4 -3.3 +1.3 -5.2
  Nov 24, 2024 353   Mercyhurst W 82-48 79%     2 - 4 +18.3 +17.9 +7.2
  Nov 27, 2024 335   Sacramento St. L 61-63 72%     2 - 5 -15.4 -11.3 -4.3
  Nov 30, 2024 198   @ Wright St. L 57-70 23%     2 - 6 -12.5 -11.0 -3.1
  Dec 02, 2024 150   @ Miami (OH) L 60-73 16%     2 - 7 -9.8 -4.2 -7.3
  Dec 07, 2024 311   Stony Brook W 69-61 55%     3 - 7 -0.7 -9.7 +9.0
  Dec 16, 2024 165   @ Northern Colorado L 76-81 17%     3 - 8 -2.3 +0.8 -3.0
  Dec 21, 2024 50   @ Boise St. L 59-77 4%     3 - 9 0 - 1 -4.4 -2.7 -3.2
  Dec 31, 2024 97   UNLV L 58-77 18%     3 - 10 0 - 2 -16.4 -12.8 -3.7
  Jan 04, 2025 160   Wyoming L 65-70 31%     3 - 11 0 - 3 -7.0 +4.0 -11.9
  Jan 08, 2025 57   @ San Diego St. L 38-67 5%     3 - 12 0 - 4 -16.8 -21.9 +2.8
  Jan 11, 2025 147   San Jose St. L 62-69 29%     3 - 13 0 - 5 -8.5 -5.0 -4.4
  Jan 14, 2025 83   @ Nevada L 62-68 7%     3 - 14 0 - 6 +3.4 +0.1 +2.8
  Jan 17, 2025 259   @ Fresno St. L 65-74 34%     3 - 15 0 - 7 -12.1 -1.4 -11.7
  Jan 22, 2025 57   San Diego St. L 76-77 OT 9%     3 - 16 0 - 8 +6.3 +10.7 -4.4
  Jan 25, 2025 55   Utah St. L 58-87 9%     3 - 17 0 - 9 -21.4 -11.0 -11.8
  Jan 28, 2025 82   @ Colorado St. L 58-79 7%     3 - 18 0 - 10 -11.4 -6.3 -6.7
  Feb 01, 2025 147   @ San Jose St. L 64-75 16%     3 - 19 0 - 11 -7.6 -3.0 -5.5
  Feb 04, 2025 83   Nevada L 60-74 14%     3 - 20 0 - 12 -9.5 -2.7 -8.7
  Feb 08, 2025 34   New Mexico L 53-88 6%     3 - 21 0 - 13 -24.8 -17.1 -4.8
  Feb 11, 2025 97   @ UNLV L 52-77 9%     3 - 22 0 - 14 -17.5 -9.3 -11.7
  Feb 18, 2025 160   @ Wyoming L 59-69 15%    
  Feb 22, 2025 259   Fresno St. W 72-71 55%    
  Feb 25, 2025 82   Colorado St. L 61-73 14%    
  Mar 01, 2025 34   @ New Mexico L 60-82 1%    
  Mar 04, 2025 50   Boise St. L 59-75 7%    
  Mar 08, 2025 55   @ Utah St. L 62-82 3%    
Projected Record 4 - 27 1 - 19





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Mountain West Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 4th
5th 5th
6th 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 9th
10th 12.2 13.7 2.8 0.3 0.0 28.9 10th
11th 31.3 34.3 5.2 0.2 71.0 11th
Total 31.3 46.5 18.8 3.0 0.4 0.0 Total



Mountain West Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8
11-9
10-10
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8
11-9
10-10
9-11
8-12
7-13
6-14
5-15 0.0% 0.0
4-16 0.4% 0.4
3-17 3.0% 3.0
2-18 18.8% 18.8
1-19 46.5% 46.5
0-20 31.3% 31.3
Total 100% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 28.6%