Lipscomb
Atlantic Sun
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+4.1#105
Expected Predictive Rating+3.4#119
Pace69.5#171
Improvement+4.2#9

Offense
Total Offense+2.0#123
First Shot+2.3#107
After Offensive Rebound-0.4#207
Layup/Dunks+2.8#90
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.6#132
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.5#136
Freethrows-2.5#310
Improvement+0.7#125

Defense
Total Defense+2.1#102
First Shot+1.0#140
After Offensive Rebounds+1.2#98
Layups/Dunks+1.0#138
2 Pt Jumpshots-4.5#352
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.1#181
Freethrows+4.3#5
Improvement+3.5#7
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 40.2% 43.8% 36.9%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.1 12.9 13.4
.500 or above 99.5% 99.9% 99.2%
.500 or above in Conference 99.3% 99.5% 99.0%
Conference Champion 60.5% 65.1% 56.4%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.1% 0.0% 0.1%
First Round40.1% 43.8% 36.8%
Second Round5.5% 6.5% 4.7%
Sweet Sixteen1.2% 1.4% 1.0%
Elite Eight0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Middle Tennessee (Away) - 47.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 14 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 2
Quad 20 - 10 - 3
Quad 35 - 36 - 7
Quad 417 - 223 - 9


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 208   @ Duquesne W 77-72 63%     1 - 0 +5.7 +1.5 +3.9
  Nov 06, 2024 33   @ Arkansas L 60-76 14%     1 - 1 -0.3 -7.7 +8.3
  Nov 09, 2024 142   Wofford W 78-69 72%     2 - 1 +7.0 +12.0 -3.8
  Nov 12, 2024 132   Belmont L 79-80 71%     2 - 2 -2.5 +4.2 -6.7
  Nov 17, 2024 115   @ Western Kentucky L 61-66 41%     2 - 3 +1.3 -10.8 +12.5
  Nov 19, 2024 9   @ Kentucky L 68-97 7%     2 - 4 -8.3 +2.8 -10.6
  Nov 24, 2024 315   Jackson St. W 77-53 92%     3 - 4 +12.6 +1.6 +11.2
  Nov 30, 2024 360   @ Alabama A&M W 82-44 92%     4 - 4 +26.3 +0.8 +23.9
  Dec 03, 2024 200   @ Chattanooga W 80-62 61%     5 - 4 +19.2 +9.7 +10.3
  Dec 05, 2024 295   Southeast Missouri St. W 78-60 90%     6 - 4 +8.1 +3.5 +4.8
  Dec 19, 2024 128   @ Middle Tennessee L 72-73 47%    
  Jan 02, 2025 212   @ Jacksonville W 73-69 63%    
  Jan 04, 2025 182   @ North Florida W 80-78 58%    
  Jan 09, 2025 290   Queens W 83-69 90%    
  Jan 11, 2025 349   West Georgia W 81-61 97%    
  Jan 16, 2025 333   @ Bellarmine W 78-67 84%    
  Jan 18, 2025 238   Austin Peay W 73-62 85%    
  Jan 23, 2025 214   @ North Alabama W 75-71 63%    
  Jan 25, 2025 337   @ Central Arkansas W 76-65 85%    
  Jan 30, 2025 207   Eastern Kentucky W 80-71 80%    
  Feb 01, 2025 333   Bellarmine W 81-64 94%    
  Feb 05, 2025 349   @ West Georgia W 78-64 89%    
  Feb 08, 2025 290   @ Queens W 80-72 76%    
  Feb 13, 2025 329   Stetson W 83-66 93%    
  Feb 15, 2025 188   Florida Gulf Coast W 72-64 77%    
  Feb 18, 2025 207   @ Eastern Kentucky W 77-74 62%    
  Feb 20, 2025 214   North Alabama W 78-68 81%    
  Feb 24, 2025 238   @ Austin Peay W 70-65 68%    
  Feb 26, 2025 337   Central Arkansas W 79-62 94%    
Projected Record 21 - 8 14 - 4




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic Sun Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.3 3.2 9.4 15.8 16.8 11.0 4.0 60.5 1st
2nd 0.3 2.5 6.3 7.2 3.5 0.7 0.0 20.5 2nd
3rd 0.1 1.3 3.7 3.0 0.8 0.1 0.0 8.9 3rd
4th 0.0 0.7 2.2 1.7 0.3 0.0 5.0 4th
5th 0.0 0.2 1.1 1.0 0.2 0.0 2.6 5th
6th 0.1 0.5 0.6 0.1 0.0 1.3 6th
7th 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.7 7th
8th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.3 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 0.0 11th
12th 0.0 0.0 0.0 12th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.5 1.2 2.6 5.0 8.5 12.9 17.3 19.3 17.5 11.1 4.0 Total



Atlantic Sun Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 4.0    4.0
17-1 99.8% 11.0    10.8 0.3
16-2 96.1% 16.8    14.9 1.9 0.0
15-3 81.5% 15.8    11.1 4.3 0.4
14-4 54.2% 9.4    4.5 3.8 1.0 0.1
13-5 24.9% 3.2    0.8 1.4 0.8 0.2 0.0
12-6 3.9% 0.3    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0
11-7 0.3% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 60.5% 60.5 46.0 11.8 2.4 0.4 0.1



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 4.0% 62.1% 62.0% 0.1% 11.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.8 1.3 0.1 0.0 1.5 0.3%
17-1 11.1% 56.7% 56.7% 12.3 0.3 3.7 2.1 0.2 4.8
16-2 17.5% 50.7% 50.7% 12.8 0.0 3.1 4.5 1.1 0.0 8.6
15-3 19.3% 44.7% 44.7% 13.2 0.0 1.3 4.4 2.6 0.3 10.7
14-4 17.3% 37.3% 37.3% 13.6 0.4 2.5 2.9 0.6 0.0 10.9
13-5 12.9% 29.8% 29.8% 14.0 0.1 0.9 2.0 0.8 0.0 9.0
12-6 8.5% 23.7% 23.7% 14.4 0.0 0.2 0.9 0.8 0.1 6.5
11-7 5.0% 19.9% 19.9% 14.6 0.1 0.4 0.5 0.1 4.0
10-8 2.6% 17.7% 17.7% 14.9 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.1 2.2
9-9 1.2% 8.9% 8.9% 14.9 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 1.1
8-10 0.5% 10.6% 10.6% 15.7 0.0 0.0 0.4
7-11 0.1% 11.0% 11.0% 15.8 0.0 0.0 0.1
6-12 0.1% 0.1
5-13 0.0% 0.0
4-14 0.0% 0.0
3-15 0.0% 0.0
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 40.2% 40.2% 0.0% 13.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 1.2 9.9 14.9 10.2 3.4 0.4 59.8 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 1.5% 100.0% 11.0 1.4 1.5 1.4 1.5 4.6 5.2 44.1 39.7 0.7
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.4% 1.1% 12.0 1.1
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.4%