Northern Iowa
Missouri Valley
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+3.4#113
Expected Predictive Rating+0.4#167
Pace65.6#278
Improvement+0.5#151

Offense
Total Offense+2.0#121
First Shot+5.3#48
After Offensive Rebound-3.3#334
Layup/Dunks+2.2#107
2 Pt Jumpshots+3.0#37
3 Pt Jumpshots+3.0#90
Freethrows-2.9#324
Improvement-1.0#260

Defense
Total Defense+1.4#126
First Shot+1.0#141
After Offensive Rebounds+0.4#154
Layups/Dunks+2.8#87
2 Pt Jumpshots-3.3#344
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.1#179
Freethrows+1.3#104
Improvement+1.5#54
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 10.4% 10.7% 6.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Average Seed 12.5 12.5 13.1
.500 or above 76.1% 77.5% 51.3%
.500 or above in Conference 80.6% 81.3% 68.8%
Conference Champion 10.5% 10.8% 5.5%
Last Place in Conference 0.8% 0.7% 1.6%
First Four0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
First Round10.4% 10.7% 5.9%
Second Round1.9% 1.9% 0.6%
Sweet Sixteen0.4% 0.4% 0.1%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Northern Illinois (Home) - 94.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 2
Quad 22 - 62 - 8
Quad 37 - 59 - 12
Quad 410 - 118 - 14


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 07, 2024 172   Wisconsin-Milwaukee W 87-68 75%     1 - 0 +15.2 +12.6 +3.2
  Nov 10, 2024 57   UC Irvine L 60-80 38%     1 - 1 -13.4 -6.0 -7.6
  Nov 14, 2024 94   @ Wichita St. L 73-79 31%     1 - 2 +2.6 +7.0 -4.5
  Nov 19, 2024 324   Western Illinois W 82-56 92%     2 - 2 +13.9 +12.9 +4.0
  Nov 28, 2024 77   North Texas L 48-68 35%     2 - 3 -12.8 -13.2 -1.3
  Nov 29, 2024 88   St. Bonaventure L 56-68 39%     2 - 4 -5.9 -5.9 -1.4
  Dec 04, 2024 217   @ Illinois-Chicago W 83-56 63%     3 - 4 1 - 0 +26.9 +19.8 +10.8
  Dec 07, 2024 338   Northern Illinois W 79-62 94%    
  Dec 13, 2024 306   Nebraska Omaha W 78-64 90%    
  Dec 16, 2024 190   Montana W 75-67 77%    
  Dec 21, 2024 74   Washington St. L 70-74 35%    
  Dec 29, 2024 169   Southern Illinois W 74-67 74%    
  Jan 01, 2025 132   Belmont W 79-74 67%    
  Jan 04, 2025 247   @ Valparaiso W 75-70 67%    
  Jan 08, 2025 117   Murray St. W 70-66 62%    
  Jan 11, 2025 170   @ Illinois St. W 70-69 54%    
  Jan 14, 2025 243   Evansville W 76-65 83%    
  Jan 18, 2025 169   @ Southern Illinois W 71-70 54%    
  Jan 21, 2025 165   Missouri St. W 71-64 73%    
  Jan 25, 2025 191   @ Indiana St. W 79-77 56%    
  Jan 29, 2025 73   @ Drake L 61-68 26%    
  Feb 02, 2025 71   Bradley L 70-72 44%    
  Feb 05, 2025 165   @ Missouri St. W 68-67 53%    
  Feb 08, 2025 170   Illinois St. W 73-66 73%    
  Feb 11, 2025 191   Indiana St. W 82-74 75%    
  Feb 16, 2025 117   @ Murray St. L 67-69 41%    
  Feb 19, 2025 132   @ Belmont L 76-77 46%    
  Feb 23, 2025 73   Drake L 64-65 45%    
  Feb 26, 2025 217   Illinois-Chicago W 79-69 79%    
  Mar 02, 2025 71   @ Bradley L 67-75 25%    
Projected Record 17 - 13 12 - 8




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Missouri Valley Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 0.7 2.2 2.9 2.6 1.4 0.4 0.1 10.5 1st
2nd 0.0 0.3 2.2 4.6 4.9 2.6 0.6 0.1 15.3 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.7 3.6 6.4 5.3 1.8 0.2 0.0 18.0 3rd
4th 0.0 0.7 3.8 6.5 3.8 0.9 0.1 15.7 4th
5th 0.0 0.6 3.1 5.5 2.6 0.5 0.0 12.3 5th
6th 0.0 0.3 2.3 4.4 2.2 0.3 0.0 9.6 6th
7th 0.1 1.3 3.2 1.8 0.3 0.0 6.8 7th
8th 0.1 0.9 2.3 1.5 0.3 0.0 5.1 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 0.5 1.5 1.0 0.2 0.0 3.2 9th
10th 0.0 0.4 0.8 0.8 0.2 0.0 2.1 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0 1.0 11th
12th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.4 12th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.9 1.7 3.4 5.2 7.8 10.4 12.4 13.4 13.1 11.5 8.9 5.7 3.3 1.5 0.4 0.1 Total



Missouri Valley Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.1    0.1
19-1 100.0% 0.4    0.4 0.0
18-2 96.0% 1.4    1.2 0.2
17-3 80.3% 2.6    1.8 0.8 0.1
16-4 50.7% 2.9    1.5 1.2 0.2 0.0
15-5 24.4% 2.2    0.8 1.0 0.4 0.1
14-6 6.4% 0.7    0.1 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0
13-7 1.3% 0.2    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.1% 0.0    0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 10.5% 10.5 5.9 3.5 1.0 0.2 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.1% 71.4% 46.4% 25.0% 8.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 46.7%
19-1 0.4% 44.6% 36.2% 8.5% 10.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 13.3%
18-2 1.5% 34.1% 32.6% 1.5% 11.4 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.0 1.0 2.2%
17-3 3.3% 28.6% 28.6% 11.9 0.2 0.6 0.1 0.0 2.3
16-4 5.7% 22.9% 22.9% 12.0 0.2 1.0 0.2 0.0 4.4
15-5 8.9% 20.4% 20.4% 12.3 0.1 1.2 0.5 0.0 7.1
14-6 11.5% 14.9% 14.9% 12.5 0.0 0.9 0.7 0.1 0.0 9.7
13-7 13.1% 11.6% 11.6% 12.8 0.0 0.6 0.7 0.2 0.0 11.6
12-8 13.4% 7.6% 7.6% 13.1 0.3 0.5 0.3 0.0 12.3
11-9 12.4% 5.5% 5.5% 13.4 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 11.7
10-10 10.4% 3.6% 3.6% 13.9 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 10.0
9-11 7.8% 2.5% 2.5% 14.9 0.1 0.1 0.0 7.6
8-12 5.2% 1.3% 1.3% 15.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 5.2
7-13 3.4% 1.0% 1.0% 16.0 0.0 3.3
6-14 1.7% 1.3% 1.3% 16.0 0.0 1.7
5-15 0.9% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.0 0.9
4-16 0.3% 0.3
3-17 0.1% 0.1
2-18 0.0% 0.0
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 10.4% 10.4% 0.1% 12.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.8 5.0 3.0 1.0 0.4 0.1 89.6 0.1%