Illinois St.
Missouri Valley
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+1.1#145
Expected Predictive Rating+1.4#145
Pace62.6#336
Improvement+0.0#174

Offense
Total Offense+3.2#92
First Shot+6.3#39
After Offensive Rebound-3.1#332
Layup/Dunks-1.9#251
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.9#233
3 Pt Jumpshots+7.8#9
Freethrows+1.3#100
Improvement+1.9#88

Defense
Total Defense-2.1#236
First Shot-3.3#279
After Offensive Rebounds+1.2#86
Layups/Dunks+2.2#93
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.8#315
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.5#286
Freethrows-1.2#273
Improvement-1.8#286
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 4.7% 7.3% 4.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.1 12.8 13.2
.500 or above 71.6% 87.4% 67.8%
.500 or above in Conference 43.8% 66.3% 38.4%
Conference Champion 0.7% 2.5% 0.3%
Last Place in Conference 3.5% 1.2% 4.1%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.1%
First Round4.7% 7.3% 4.1%
Second Round0.5% 0.9% 0.4%
Sweet Sixteen0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Drake (Away) - 19.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 23 - 43 - 5
Quad 37 - 610 - 12
Quad 47 - 317 - 15


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 291   Tennessee Martin L 65-67 85%     0 - 1 -12.1 -18.4 +6.5
  Nov 07, 2024 123   @ North Dakota St. W 77-68 34%     1 - 1 +14.4 +7.9 +7.2
  Nov 12, 2024 143   Ohio W 85-75 61%     2 - 1 +8.3 +18.6 -9.4
  Nov 22, 2024 72   McNeese St. L 68-76 27%     2 - 2 -0.5 +8.9 -10.5
  Nov 23, 2024 98   UAB W 84-83 37%     3 - 2 +5.6 +5.9 -0.4
  Nov 25, 2024 110   George Washington L 64-72 41%     3 - 3 -4.7 -3.3 -1.9
  Dec 04, 2024 135   @ Belmont L 97-99 OT 37%     3 - 4 0 - 1 +2.4 +11.0 -8.4
  Dec 07, 2024 305   Pacific W 72-61 87%     4 - 4 +0.0 +0.6 +0.7
  Dec 15, 2024 104   Saint Louis W 81-77 49%     5 - 4 +5.2 +16.2 -10.5
  Dec 18, 2024 356   Northern Illinois W 81-60 94%     6 - 4 +4.3 +1.6 +2.6
  Dec 22, 2024 137   @ Cornell W 80-77 38%     7 - 4 +7.3 +9.8 -2.3
  Dec 29, 2024 153   Illinois-Chicago L 67-73 62%     7 - 5 0 - 2 -8.2 -0.5 -8.3
  Jan 02, 2025 126   @ Murray St. W 74-68 34%     8 - 5 1 - 2 +11.3 +12.9 -0.9
  Jan 05, 2025 237   Southern Illinois W 85-54 78%     9 - 5 2 - 2 +24.0 +10.8 +13.9
  Jan 08, 2025 254   @ Evansville L 51-69 63%     9 - 6 2 - 3 -20.3 -11.7 -11.0
  Jan 11, 2025 105   Northern Iowa L 84-85 50%     9 - 7 2 - 4 +0.1 +16.3 -16.3
  Jan 15, 2025 81   @ Drake L 59-68 19%    
  Jan 18, 2025 226   Missouri St. W 72-64 77%    
  Jan 21, 2025 175   Indiana St. W 81-77 67%    
  Jan 25, 2025 95   @ Bradley L 66-73 26%    
  Jan 29, 2025 135   Belmont W 79-76 59%    
  Feb 01, 2025 206   Valparaiso W 76-70 73%    
  Feb 05, 2025 153   @ Illinois-Chicago L 72-75 39%    
  Feb 08, 2025 105   @ Northern Iowa L 68-74 30%    
  Feb 12, 2025 81   Drake L 62-65 39%    
  Feb 15, 2025 175   @ Indiana St. L 78-79 45%    
  Feb 19, 2025 95   Bradley L 69-70 45%    
  Feb 22, 2025 226   @ Missouri St. W 69-67 56%    
  Feb 25, 2025 237   @ Southern Illinois W 73-71 56%    
  Mar 02, 2025 254   Evansville W 71-62 81%    
Projected Record 16 - 14 9 - 11




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Missouri Valley Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.7 1st
2nd 0.0 0.3 1.1 0.8 0.0 2.2 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.5 2.1 1.7 0.2 4.4 3rd
4th 0.3 2.8 3.4 0.9 0.0 7.5 4th
5th 0.3 3.2 5.3 1.7 0.0 10.5 5th
6th 0.1 2.5 7.2 3.7 0.2 13.7 6th
7th 0.1 2.5 7.6 5.7 0.7 0.0 16.6 7th
8th 0.1 1.7 7.3 6.4 1.2 16.7 8th
9th 0.2 1.3 5.4 5.6 1.2 0.0 13.6 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.8 3.1 3.6 0.7 0.0 8.2 10th
11th 0.0 0.5 1.5 1.7 0.5 0.0 4.3 11th
12th 0.0 0.3 0.5 0.6 0.2 1.5 12th
Total 0.0 0.3 0.9 3.1 6.5 11.2 16.1 18.0 17.7 12.9 7.8 3.9 1.4 0.2 0.0 Total



Missouri Valley Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4 100.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0
15-5 94.9% 0.2    0.1 0.0
14-6 27.3% 0.4    0.0 0.2 0.1
13-7 3.7% 0.1    0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.3% 0.0    0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 0.7% 0.7 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4 0.0% 0.0
15-5 0.2% 7.6% 7.6% 11.8 0.0 0.0 0.1
14-6 1.4% 24.4% 24.4% 12.2 0.3 0.1 1.0
13-7 3.9% 17.6% 17.6% 12.7 0.2 0.4 0.0 3.2
12-8 7.8% 11.9% 11.9% 12.6 0.4 0.4 0.1 6.9
11-9 12.9% 5.4% 5.4% 12.9 0.3 0.3 0.2 12.2
10-10 17.7% 4.8% 4.8% 13.2 0.1 0.5 0.3 0.0 16.8
9-11 18.0% 3.0% 3.0% 13.5 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.0 17.5
8-12 16.1% 2.1% 2.1% 14.3 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.1 15.8
7-13 11.2% 2.2% 2.2% 14.7 0.1 0.2 11.0
6-14 6.5% 0.3% 0.3% 15.0 0.0 6.5
5-15 3.1% 1.4% 1.4% 16.0 0.0 3.1
4-16 0.9% 0.9
3-17 0.3% 0.3
2-18 0.0% 0.0
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 4.7% 4.7% 0.0% 13.1 0.0 1.4 1.9 1.0 0.4 0.0 95.3 0.0%