Tulane
American Athletic
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+1.3#139
Expected Predictive Rating-0.8#179
Pace67.0#208
Improvement+2.6#75

Offense
Total Offense+0.0#175
First Shot+0.9#142
After Offensive Rebound-0.9#247
Layup/Dunks-1.1#226
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.5#200
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.7#152
Freethrows+1.8#78
Improvement+0.6#158

Defense
Total Defense+1.3#139
First Shot+0.0#189
After Offensive Rebounds+1.3#76
Layups/Dunks+3.3#65
2 Pt Jumpshots+3.3#3
3 Pt Jumpshots-4.4#332
Freethrows-2.3#327
Improvement+2.0#84
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 3.2% 3.5% 2.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.8 13.7 14.1
.500 or above 68.4% 78.8% 46.1%
.500 or above in Conference 96.3% 99.1% 90.1%
Conference Champion 0.5% 0.6% 0.1%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round3.2% 3.5% 2.6%
Second Round0.3% 0.3% 0.3%
Sweet Sixteen0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Rice (Home) - 68.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 2
Quad 20 - 40 - 6
Quad 35 - 65 - 12
Quad 411 - 316 - 15


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 08, 2024 338   Louisiana Monroe W 80-64 91%     1 - 0 +2.1 -2.1 +3.4
  Nov 11, 2024 310   Alcorn St. W 84-51 87%     2 - 0 +21.8 +15.1 +9.7
  Nov 15, 2024 166   @ Furman L 67-75 45%     2 - 1 -5.3 -2.4 -3.4
  Nov 19, 2024 275   Bethune-Cookman W 72-57 83%     3 - 1 +6.3 -1.6 +8.1
  Nov 22, 2024 350   New Orleans L 87-93 OT 93%     3 - 2 -21.5 -8.8 -11.8
  Nov 26, 2024 160   Wyoming L 63-64 53%     3 - 3 -0.6 -4.6 +3.9
  Nov 27, 2024 140   Belmont L 66-89 50%     3 - 4 -21.8 -9.3 -12.9
  Dec 02, 2024 215   SE Louisiana L 67-71 74%     3 - 5 -9.5 -3.2 -6.5
  Dec 07, 2024 72   @ George Mason L 64-76 20%     3 - 6 -1.8 +5.0 -7.6
  Dec 10, 2024 256   Southern Miss W 86-58 81%     4 - 6 +20.1 +11.5 +8.5
  Dec 14, 2024 69   Florida St. L 64-77 26%     4 - 7 -5.1 -2.9 -2.4
  Dec 31, 2024 228   @ Charlotte W 83-68 59%     5 - 7 1 - 0 +13.9 +2.6 +10.1
  Jan 04, 2025 197   Texas San Antonio W 92-63 71%     6 - 7 2 - 0 +24.6 +10.4 +12.6
  Jan 07, 2025 102   @ UAB L 69-81 30%     6 - 8 2 - 1 -5.2 -5.0 -0.1
  Jan 11, 2025 178   South Florida W 73-70 67%     7 - 8 3 - 1 -0.3 +8.1 -8.0
  Jan 15, 2025 101   Florida Atlantic W 80-65 46%     8 - 8 4 - 1 +17.2 +7.1 +10.3
  Jan 19, 2025 141   @ Temple L 77-80 41%     8 - 9 4 - 2 +0.7 +9.6 -9.1
  Jan 25, 2025 179   @ Rice W 82-71 49%     9 - 9 5 - 2 +12.6 +9.8 +2.8
  Jan 30, 2025 47   Memphis L 56-68 23%     9 - 10 5 - 3 -3.1 -8.2 +4.2
  Feb 02, 2025 238   Tulsa W 59-56 78%     10 - 10 6 - 3 -4.0 -11.6 +7.8
  Feb 05, 2025 197   @ Texas San Antonio W 61-60 53%     11 - 10 7 - 3 +1.5 -8.0 +9.6
  Feb 08, 2025 71   @ North Texas L 66-76 20%     11 - 11 7 - 4 +0.3 +16.5 -18.7
  Feb 15, 2025 179   Rice W 73-68 68%    
  Feb 19, 2025 161   East Carolina W 71-68 64%    
  Feb 23, 2025 128   @ Wichita St. L 70-73 37%    
  Feb 26, 2025 228   Charlotte W 73-66 77%    
  Mar 01, 2025 238   @ Tulsa W 71-68 60%    
  Mar 06, 2025 161   @ East Carolina L 69-71 43%    
  Mar 09, 2025 102   UAB L 77-78 49%    
Projected Record 15 - 14 11 - 7





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected American Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.2 0.3 0.5 1st
2nd 0.2 2.3 4.8 1.9 9.2 2nd
3rd 0.5 6.3 13.1 5.7 0.4 25.9 3rd
4th 0.3 7.4 17.2 6.8 0.4 32.2 4th
5th 0.1 3.2 11.4 4.4 0.3 19.4 5th
6th 0.0 0.9 4.8 2.4 0.0 8.1 6th
7th 0.2 1.8 1.7 0.1 3.8 7th
8th 0.2 0.5 0.1 0.7 8th
9th 0.1 0.0 0.2 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
13th 13th
Total 0.5 3.3 10.2 21.8 28.2 22.5 11.1 2.6 Total



American Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4 10.0% 0.3    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0
13-5 1.8% 0.2    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1
12-6 0.0%
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.5% 0.5 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.1



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4 2.6% 7.7% 7.7% 12.4 0.0 0.1 0.1 2.4
13-5 11.1% 5.5% 5.5% 13.0 0.1 0.4 0.1 10.5
12-6 22.5% 4.4% 4.4% 13.6 0.1 0.4 0.5 0.1 21.5
11-7 28.2% 3.3% 3.3% 14.3 0.1 0.4 0.4 0.0 27.3
10-8 21.8% 1.7% 1.7% 14.7 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.0 21.4
9-9 10.2% 1.0% 1.0% 15.2 0.1 0.0 10.1
8-10 3.3% 0.6% 0.6% 16.0 0.0 3.2
7-11 0.5% 0.5
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 3.2% 3.2% 0.0% 13.8 0.0 0.3 1.0 1.1 0.8 0.1 96.8 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.2% 100.0% 12.4 5.0 55.0 40.0
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.4%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 1.1%
Lose Out 0.3%