Jackson St.
Southwestern Athletic
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-7.1#289
Expected Predictive Rating-6.5#276
Pace71.8#97
Improvement+2.1#90

Offense
Total Offense-7.1#341
First Shot-7.0#344
After Offensive Rebound-0.1#188
Layup/Dunks-4.6#330
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.6#78
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.8#270
Freethrows-1.2#263
Improvement+0.3#155

Defense
Total Defense+0.0#172
First Shot-0.1#183
After Offensive Rebounds+0.1#187
Layups/Dunks+1.7#110
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.5#154
3 Pt Jumpshots-4.8#342
Freethrows+2.6#34
Improvement+1.8#84
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 11.8% 14.0% 9.7%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 15.9 16.0
.500 or above 14.1% 22.0% 6.1%
.500 or above in Conference 97.8% 99.3% 96.2%
Conference Champion 20.1% 27.8% 12.2%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four10.6% 12.1% 9.1%
First Round6.5% 8.0% 5.0%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Prairie View (Away) - 50.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 30 - 3
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 5
Quad 20 - 50 - 10
Quad 30 - 40 - 14
Quad 413 - 514 - 19


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 3   @ Houston L 40-97 1%     0 - 1 -32.1 -17.3 -16.7
  Nov 09, 2024 108   @ High Point L 71-80 10%     0 - 2 -2.4 -4.0 +1.7
  Nov 12, 2024 46   @ Xavier L 57-94 4%     0 - 3 -23.0 -11.3 -10.3
  Nov 16, 2024 52   @ Vanderbilt L 81-94 4%     0 - 4 +0.4 +10.3 -9.4
  Nov 20, 2024 128   @ Western Kentucky L 62-79 13%     0 - 5 -11.8 -8.2 -2.9
  Nov 22, 2024 17   @ Kentucky L 59-108 2%     0 - 6 -29.6 -17.2 -5.4
  Nov 24, 2024 96   @ Lipscomb L 53-77 9%     0 - 7 -16.1 -15.3 -1.0
  Dec 02, 2024 104   @ Saint Louis L 66-74 10%     0 - 8 -0.9 -1.7 +0.3
  Dec 05, 2024 99   @ Arkansas St. L 64-66 9%     0 - 9 +5.4 -8.4 +13.8
  Dec 08, 2024 4   @ Iowa St. L 58-100 1%     0 - 10 -18.2 -7.0 -8.7
  Dec 20, 2024 152   @ UTEP L 61-67 16%     0 - 11 -2.3 -6.9 +4.5
  Dec 21, 2024 131   Akron L 50-68 20%     0 - 12 -16.0 -23.1 +7.4
  Dec 28, 2024 170   @ California Baptist L 73-79 18%     0 - 13 -3.4 -6.8 +3.9
  Jan 04, 2025 336   @ Alcorn St. W 72-69 53%     1 - 13 1 - 0 -4.9 +1.2 -5.8
  Jan 11, 2025 300   Alabama St. W 77-70 64%     2 - 13 2 - 0 -3.8 -3.0 -0.8
  Jan 13, 2025 357   Alabama A&M W 103-93 3OT 84%     3 - 13 3 - 0 -7.5 -8.4 -2.2
  Jan 18, 2025 328   @ Prairie View W 76-75 50%    
  Jan 20, 2025 299   @ Texas Southern L 69-71 41%    
  Jan 25, 2025 260   Bethune-Cookman W 68-67 55%    
  Jan 27, 2025 359   Florida A&M W 75-64 83%    
  Feb 01, 2025 327   @ Grambling St. W 67-66 49%    
  Feb 03, 2025 213   @ Southern L 64-71 24%    
  Feb 08, 2025 364   Mississippi Valley W 76-55 98%    
  Feb 10, 2025 363   Arkansas Pine Bluff W 85-71 90%    
  Feb 15, 2025 359   @ Florida A&M W 72-67 67%    
  Feb 17, 2025 260   @ Bethune-Cookman L 65-70 32%    
  Feb 22, 2025 336   Alcorn St. W 71-64 74%    
  Mar 01, 2025 299   Texas Southern W 72-68 63%    
  Mar 03, 2025 328   Prairie View W 78-72 71%    
  Mar 06, 2025 363   @ Arkansas Pine Bluff W 82-74 76%    
  Mar 08, 2025 364   @ Mississippi Valley W 73-58 91%    
Projected Record 13 - 18 13 - 5




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southwestern Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.1 1.7 5.0 7.2 4.6 1.2 0.4 20.1 1st
2nd 0.2 3.4 10.2 9.9 4.2 0.7 0.0 28.7 2nd
3rd 0.1 2.9 9.1 7.2 1.4 0.0 20.8 3rd
4th 0.0 1.3 6.0 4.7 0.8 12.8 4th
5th 0.0 0.7 3.4 3.5 1.0 0.0 8.6 5th
6th 0.0 0.1 1.5 2.5 0.4 0.0 4.6 6th
7th 0.0 0.0 1.0 1.5 0.7 0.0 3.2 7th
8th 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.2 0.8 8th
9th 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.3 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 0.0 11th
12th 12th
Total 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.6 4.0 8.0 13.1 18.3 19.9 16.3 11.4 5.3 1.2 0.4 Total



Southwestern Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.4    0.4
17-1 98.1% 1.2    1.0 0.2
16-2 86.5% 4.6    3.3 1.2 0.0
15-3 63.3% 7.2    4.1 2.8 0.3
14-4 30.5% 5.0    1.5 2.4 1.0 0.1
13-5 8.5% 1.7    0.2 0.7 0.6 0.2 0.0
12-6 0.6% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 20.1% 20.1 10.5 7.3 1.8 0.3 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.4% 31.4% 31.4% 14.0 0.1 0.0 0.3
17-1 1.2% 11.7% 11.7% 15.6 0.0 0.1 0.1 1.0
16-2 5.3% 24.3% 24.3% 15.9 0.1 1.1 4.0
15-3 11.4% 20.0% 20.0% 16.0 0.1 2.2 9.1
14-4 16.3% 14.2% 14.2% 16.0 2.3 14.0
13-5 19.9% 12.7% 12.7% 16.0 2.5 17.4
12-6 18.3% 8.2% 8.2% 16.0 1.5 16.8
11-7 13.1% 7.3% 7.3% 16.0 1.0 12.2
10-8 8.0% 6.7% 6.7% 16.0 0.5 7.5
9-9 4.0% 3.0% 3.0% 16.0 0.1 3.8
8-10 1.6% 3.0% 3.0% 16.0 0.0 1.5
7-11 0.5% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.0 0.5
6-12 0.2% 0.2
5-13 0.0% 0.0
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 11.8% 11.8% 0.0% 16.0 0.1 0.2 11.5 88.2 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.1% 100.0% 14.0 98.5 1.5
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.2%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.1%