Iowa St.
Big 12
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+18.2#8
Expected Predictive Rating+19.3#11
Pace71.2#122
Improvement+1.3#95

Offense
Total Offense+10.3#8
First Shot+8.2#15
After Offensive Rebound+2.0#73
Layup/Dunks+2.3#103
2 Pt Jumpshots+3.6#27
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.4#220
Freethrows+3.8#28
Improvement+0.7#122

Defense
Total Defense+8.0#9
First Shot+4.5#59
After Offensive Rebounds+3.5#13
Layups/Dunks+4.1#59
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.3#323
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.7#118
Freethrows+0.9#129
Improvement+0.6#125
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 5.7% 5.7% 0.0%
#1 Seed 22.8% 22.8% 11.3%
Top 2 Seed 43.7% 43.7% 19.1%
Top 4 Seed 73.2% 73.3% 51.3%
Top 6 Seed 87.8% 87.8% 69.6%
NCAA Tourney Bid 98.3% 98.3% 91.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 97.8% 97.8% 89.6%
Average Seed 3.4 3.4 4.7
.500 or above 99.8% 99.8% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 95.5% 95.5% 87.8%
Conference Champion 29.7% 29.8% 10.4%
Last Place in Conference 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
First Four0.8% 0.8% 3.5%
First Round97.9% 97.9% 89.6%
Second Round87.0% 87.0% 75.7%
Sweet Sixteen58.8% 58.8% 47.0%
Elite Eight34.3% 34.3% 26.1%
Final Four19.1% 19.1% 15.7%
Championship Game10.3% 10.3% 4.3%
National Champion5.3% 5.3% 2.6%

Next Game: Jackson St. (Home) - 99.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 2 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a4 - 54 - 5
Quad 1b5 - 29 - 7
Quad 27 - 117 - 8
Quad 33 - 019 - 8
Quad 46 - 025 - 8


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 364   Mississippi Valley W 83-44 99.9%    1 - 0 +14.8 -3.8 +16.4
  Nov 11, 2024 292   UMKC W 82-56 99%     2 - 0 +16.2 +11.1 +6.6
  Nov 18, 2024 356   IU Indianapolis W 87-52 99.6%    3 - 0 +18.6 +4.0 +14.5
  Nov 25, 2024 3   Auburn L 81-83 42%     3 - 1 +18.4 +13.0 +5.4
  Nov 26, 2024 46   Dayton W 89-84 77%     4 - 1 +15.6 +20.7 -5.0
  Nov 27, 2024 85   Colorado W 99-71 87%     5 - 1 +34.3 +25.5 +7.5
  Dec 04, 2024 12   Marquette W 81-70 71%     6 - 1 +23.4 +14.8 +8.7
  Dec 08, 2024 315   Jackson St. W 88-58 99.8%   
  Dec 12, 2024 50   @ Iowa W 83-78 68%    
  Dec 15, 2024 306   Nebraska Omaha W 89-60 99.7%   
  Dec 22, 2024 340   Morgan St. W 94-62 99.9%   
  Dec 30, 2024 85   @ Colorado W 78-69 79%    
  Jan 04, 2025 13   Baylor W 78-72 71%    
  Jan 07, 2025 60   Utah W 83-71 86%    
  Jan 11, 2025 24   @ Texas Tech W 75-74 54%    
  Jan 15, 2025 7   Kansas W 78-75 61%    
  Jan 18, 2025 45   @ West Virginia W 75-71 65%    
  Jan 21, 2025 83   Central Florida W 83-68 91%    
  Jan 25, 2025 51   @ Arizona St. W 78-73 69%    
  Jan 27, 2025 23   @ Arizona W 81-80 54%    
  Feb 01, 2025 59   Kansas St. W 80-68 86%    
  Feb 03, 2025 7   @ Kansas L 75-78 39%    
  Feb 08, 2025 78   TCU W 81-67 90%    
  Feb 11, 2025 83   @ Central Florida W 80-71 78%    
  Feb 15, 2025 25   Cincinnati W 76-69 74%    
  Feb 18, 2025 85   Colorado W 81-66 91%    
  Feb 22, 2025 6   @ Houston L 67-70 39%    
  Feb 25, 2025 81   @ Oklahoma St. W 82-73 78%    
  Mar 01, 2025 23   Arizona W 84-77 74%    
  Mar 04, 2025 49   BYU W 84-73 83%    
  Mar 08, 2025 59   @ Kansas St. W 77-71 70%    
Projected Record 24 - 7 14 - 6




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big 12 Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.1 0.8 3.3 6.8 8.7 6.3 2.9 0.8 29.7 1st
2nd 0.0 0.0 0.8 4.0 7.4 5.9 2.3 0.3 0.0 20.8 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.6 3.4 5.9 3.9 1.0 0.1 14.8 3rd
4th 0.2 2.3 4.8 2.8 0.5 0.0 10.6 4th
5th 0.1 1.2 3.5 2.4 0.5 0.0 7.7 5th
6th 0.0 0.4 2.4 2.1 0.5 0.0 5.4 6th
7th 0.2 1.2 1.8 0.5 0.0 3.8 7th
8th 0.0 0.5 1.4 0.6 0.0 2.7 8th
9th 0.0 0.2 0.8 0.6 0.1 1.7 9th
10th 0.0 0.4 0.6 0.1 0.0 1.1 10th
11th 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.8 11th
12th 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.4 12th
13th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.3 13th
14th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 14th
15th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 15th
16th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 16th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 1.3 2.4 3.9 6.3 9.0 11.9 14.1 15.1 13.7 11.0 6.7 2.9 0.8 Total



Big 12 Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.8    0.8
19-1 99.9% 2.9    2.8 0.1
18-2 94.8% 6.3    5.5 0.8 0.0
17-3 78.8% 8.7    5.9 2.5 0.2 0.0
16-4 49.9% 6.8    3.2 2.8 0.7 0.0
15-5 22.0% 3.3    0.9 1.4 0.8 0.2 0.0
14-6 5.6% 0.8    0.1 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0
13-7 0.5% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 29.7% 29.7 19.2 7.9 2.1 0.4 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.8% 100.0% 46.7% 53.3% 1.1 0.7 0.1 0.0 100.0%
19-1 2.9% 100.0% 47.4% 52.6% 1.2 2.5 0.4 0.0 100.0%
18-2 6.7% 100.0% 40.5% 59.5% 1.3 4.9 1.6 0.1 0.0 100.0%
17-3 11.0% 100.0% 32.7% 67.3% 1.5 6.2 4.1 0.7 0.1 100.0%
16-4 13.7% 100.0% 29.4% 70.6% 1.9 5.0 5.6 2.6 0.5 0.1 100.0%
15-5 15.1% 100.0% 24.0% 76.0% 2.5 2.5 5.4 4.6 2.2 0.4 0.0 0.0 100.0%
14-6 14.1% 100.0% 18.5% 81.5% 3.3 0.7 2.8 4.8 3.8 1.5 0.4 0.0 0.0 100.0%
13-7 11.9% 100.0% 12.8% 87.1% 4.2 0.2 0.8 2.8 3.8 2.6 1.3 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
12-8 9.0% 99.8% 7.0% 92.8% 5.3 0.0 0.1 0.7 1.9 2.5 2.0 1.1 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.8%
11-9 6.3% 99.2% 5.9% 93.4% 6.3 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.2 1.5 1.4 0.8 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0 99.2%
10-10 3.9% 97.6% 4.7% 92.9% 7.3 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 0.9 0.9 0.6 0.2 0.1 0.1 97.5%
9-11 2.4% 86.1% 2.4% 83.6% 8.9 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.3 0.0 0.3 85.7%
8-12 1.3% 60.8% 1.3% 59.5% 10.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.0 0.5 60.3%
7-13 0.5% 29.2% 1.8% 27.4% 10.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.4 27.9%
6-14 0.2% 9.0% 9.0% 11.4 0.0 0.0 0.2 9.0%
5-15 0.1% 0.1
4-16 0.0% 0.0
3-17
2-18 0.0% 0.0
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 98.3% 21.1% 77.2% 3.4 22.8 20.9 16.6 12.9 8.6 6.0 4.1 2.6 1.9 1.1 0.9 0.1 0.0 1.7 97.8%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.3% 100.0% 1.0 96.2 3.8
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.1% 100.0% 1.1 87.3 12.7
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.1% 100.0% 1.2 84.7 13.6 1.7