Southeast Missouri St.
Ohio Valley
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-6.6#279
Expected Predictive Rating-5.5#258
Pace72.1#92
Improvement-0.9#222

Offense
Total Offense-5.4#317
First Shot-1.9#231
After Offensive Rebound-3.5#344
Layup/Dunks-2.2#262
2 Pt Jumpshots+5.7#7
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.1#243
Freethrows-3.3#347
Improvement+0.0#178

Defense
Total Defense-1.1#210
First Shot+0.1#176
After Offensive Rebounds-1.2#285
Layups/Dunks-0.6#192
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.4#229
3 Pt Jumpshots+5.0#18
Freethrows-3.9#358
Improvement-0.9#234
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 14.0% 17.7% 9.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.9 15.9 15.9
.500 or above 49.6% 61.6% 34.4%
.500 or above in Conference 83.7% 91.5% 73.9%
Conference Champion 14.9% 21.4% 6.8%
Last Place in Conference 0.8% 0.1% 1.7%
First Four8.6% 10.2% 6.5%
First Round9.9% 12.8% 6.3%
Second Round0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Arkansas Little Rock (Home) - 55.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 20 - 20 - 3
Quad 30 - 30 - 6
Quad 414 - 915 - 15


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 95   @ Bradley L 60-88 9%     0 - 1 -19.7 -8.9 -10.5
  Nov 10, 2024 51   @ Vanderbilt L 76-85 4%     0 - 2 +4.4 +5.4 -0.5
  Nov 17, 2024 169   Chattanooga L 82-87 38%     0 - 3 -8.3 -6.5 -1.2
  Nov 21, 2024 343   @ Central Arkansas W 77-73 OT 57%     1 - 3 -4.4 -6.8 +2.0
  Nov 22, 2024 177   UNC Asheville L 64-72 29%     1 - 4 -8.7 -12.6 +3.7
  Nov 30, 2024 222   UMKC W 80-59 50%     2 - 4 +14.5 -2.4 +15.0
  Dec 05, 2024 96   @ Lipscomb L 60-78 10%     2 - 5 -10.1 -8.3 -2.1
  Dec 08, 2024 127   @ Murray St. L 53-73 14%     2 - 6 -14.7 -9.5 -8.0
  Dec 19, 2024 340   Eastern Illinois W 79-72 77%     3 - 6 1 - 0 -7.1 +7.2 -13.8
  Dec 21, 2024 270   SIU Edwardsville W 80-64 59%     4 - 6 2 - 0 +7.2 +8.5 -0.7
  Jan 02, 2025 303   @ Tennessee St. W 67-65 44%     5 - 6 3 - 0 -3.0 -9.8 +6.8
  Jan 04, 2025 291   @ Tennessee Martin L 63-66 41%     5 - 7 3 - 1 -7.1 -2.6 -5.0
  Jan 09, 2025 331   Southern Indiana W 77-66 75%     6 - 7 4 - 1 -2.5 -2.2 -0.4
  Jan 11, 2025 266   Morehead St. L 56-67 58%     6 - 8 4 - 2 -19.7 -13.7 -7.2
  Jan 14, 2025 250   Arkansas Little Rock W 69-68 56%    
  Jan 16, 2025 306   @ Tennessee Tech L 71-72 45%    
  Jan 23, 2025 335   @ Lindenwood W 71-70 55%    
  Jan 25, 2025 338   @ Western Illinois W 69-68 56%    
  Jan 30, 2025 291   Tennessee Martin W 73-69 63%    
  Feb 01, 2025 303   Tennessee St. W 76-72 66%    
  Feb 06, 2025 266   @ Morehead St. L 66-70 36%    
  Feb 08, 2025 331   @ Southern Indiana W 72-71 53%    
  Feb 11, 2025 250   @ Arkansas Little Rock L 66-71 35%    
  Feb 15, 2025 306   Tennessee Tech W 74-69 66%    
  Feb 20, 2025 338   Western Illinois W 72-65 75%    
  Feb 22, 2025 335   Lindenwood W 74-67 75%    
  Feb 27, 2025 270   @ SIU Edwardsville L 66-70 37%    
  Mar 01, 2025 340   @ Eastern Illinois W 70-68 55%    
Projected Record 14 - 14 12 - 8




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Ohio Valley Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.3 1.7 4.3 5.1 2.6 0.9 0.1 14.9 1st
2nd 0.2 3.2 7.5 5.3 1.8 0.3 0.0 18.2 2nd
3rd 0.1 2.5 7.5 5.3 1.4 0.1 16.9 3rd
4th 0.0 1.3 6.7 5.5 1.1 0.1 14.7 4th
5th 0.0 0.7 5.2 5.8 1.0 0.0 12.7 5th
6th 0.0 0.2 2.9 4.6 1.2 0.0 8.9 6th
7th 0.1 1.6 3.5 1.1 0.1 6.4 7th
8th 0.0 0.6 2.0 1.0 0.1 3.8 8th
9th 0.0 0.2 1.0 0.9 0.1 0.0 2.3 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.4 0.1 0.0 1.0 10th
11th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.3 11th
Total 0.0 0.2 0.7 2.2 4.8 8.3 12.4 16.3 17.5 15.6 11.0 7.0 2.9 0.9 0.1 Total



Ohio Valley Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2 100.0% 0.1    0.1 0.0
17-3 96.9% 0.9    0.8 0.0
16-4 89.9% 2.6    2.1 0.5 0.0
15-5 72.5% 5.1    3.3 1.6 0.2 0.0
14-6 38.9% 4.3    1.6 1.9 0.7 0.1
13-7 10.9% 1.7    0.4 0.7 0.5 0.1 0.0
12-8 1.5% 0.3    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
11-9 0.0% 0.0    0.0
10-10 0.0%
Total 14.9% 14.9 8.3 4.7 1.6 0.3 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2 0.1% 59.0% 59.0% 14.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1
17-3 0.9% 40.9% 40.9% 14.9 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.0 0.5
16-4 2.9% 32.7% 32.7% 15.5 0.0 0.4 0.5 1.9
15-5 7.0% 35.0% 35.0% 15.8 0.0 0.5 2.0 4.6
14-6 11.0% 27.3% 27.3% 15.9 0.2 2.8 8.0
13-7 15.6% 20.9% 20.9% 16.0 0.1 3.2 12.4
12-8 17.5% 12.0% 12.0% 16.0 0.0 2.1 15.4
11-9 16.3% 6.9% 6.9% 16.0 0.0 1.1 15.2
10-10 12.4% 3.7% 3.7% 16.0 0.5 11.9
9-11 8.3% 2.0% 2.0% 16.0 0.2 8.1
8-12 4.8% 1.2% 1.2% 16.0 0.1 4.8
7-13 2.2% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 2.2
6-14 0.7% 0.7
5-15 0.2% 0.2
4-16 0.0% 0.0
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 14.0% 14.0% 0.0% 15.9 0.0 0.1 1.5 12.3 86.0 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.1% 100.0% 14.0 8.3 86.1 5.6