Lipscomb
Atlantic Sun
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -1.6 #186
Expected Predictive Rating -0.2 #164
Pace 72.8 #75
Improvement -2.7 #295

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #183 C D+ C+ D B+
Defense #205 C C C C+ B-

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 42% #79 1.16 #168 +2.3 #107
2 Pt. Jumpers 12% #335 0.56 #361 -4.4 #355
Three Pointers 46% #88 1.02 #177 +2.4 #98
1st FG Attempt 1.02 #168 +0.3 #168
Freethrows 0.24 #350 77% #26 0.18 #320
Second Chance 24.3% #334 1.10 #77 0.27 #278
Turnovers 16.0% #115
Total Offense -0.7 #183

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 36% #262 1.20 #229 +0.9 #139
2 Pt. Jumpers 23% #99 0.74 #155 -0.7 #247
Three Pointers 41% #165 1.04 #219 -0.7 #215
1st FG Attempt 1.03 #193 -0.5 #194
Freethrows 0.29 #140 72% #182 0.21 #136
Second Chance 30.9% #193 1.04 #202 0.32 #206
Turnovers 17.4% #156
Total Defense -0.9 #205

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 2.7% #28 -1.0% #92
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -2.1% #208 1.9% #216
Possession Length 16.3 #83 17.2 #174
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.21 #85 0.17 #164
Improvement +1.2 #115 -3.9 #343

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 20.5% 21.9% 18.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.6 14.5 14.9
.500 or above 99.2% 99.9% 98.0%
.500 or above in Conference 99.9% 100.0% 99.8%
Conference Champion 11.4% 16.0% 2.9%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.2% 0.1% 0.4%
First Round20.4% 21.8% 17.7%
Second Round0.3% 0.4% 0.2%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Central Arkansas (Home) - 64.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 3
Quad 20 - 10 - 4
Quad 33 - 44 - 8
Quad 415 - 419 - 12


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 12 @Vanderbilt L 61 - 105 3% -29  0 - 1 -22 -6 F C+ F+ -14 F A+ F
 Sun, Nov 9 152 @Mercer L 77 - 92 32% -8  0 - 2 -12 +5 C- B- B -17 F F F
 Tue, Nov 11 213 @UNC Asheville L 64 - 69 44% -4  0 - 3 -5 -3 F C C+ -2 D- D- A-
 Wed, Nov 19 74 @Belmont L 68 - 75 12% -7  0 - 4 +4 -9 F B F +14 A+ C A+
 Sat, Nov 22 278 Western Carolina W 83 - 62 78% +12  1 - 4 +11 -2 C C C +12 B+ B- A+
 Wed, Nov 26 156 @Marshall W 90 - 67 33% +17  2 - 4 +26 +9 A+ F D+ +15 A+ C B
 Sat, Nov 29 233 @Southeast Missouri St. W 88 - 77 48% +4  3 - 4 +10 +5 B D- C +3 A- B+ B
 Wed, Dec 3 319 Tennessee Tech W 83 - 80 85% +1  4 - 4 -10 -2 C- F C -8 D- C D-
 Sun, Dec 7 307 Alabama A&M W 92 - 58 82% +13  5 - 4 +22 +21 A+ B- A+ +4 A- C+ C+
 Tue, Dec 16 3 @Duke L 73 - 97 1% -5  5 - 5 +3 +2 B- F B- +4 B+ F A+
 Mon, Dec 29 56 @Cincinnati L 62 - 89 10% -16  5 - 6 -14 -1 C- B- C -12 C- F F
 Thu, Jan 1 297 Jacksonville W 76 - 57 81% +9  6 - 6 1 - 0 +8 +13 A- F A+ -2 C+ D A+
 Sat, Jan 3 348 North Florida W 82 - 74 89% +2  7 - 6 2 - 0 -7 -5 F D A- -2 B- B C
 Thu, Jan 8 335 @Stetson L 83 - 91 73% -11  7 - 7 2 - 1 -16 -1 C F D -14 F A+ F+
 Sat, Jan 10 224 @Florida Gulf Coast W 84 - 77 46% +1  8 - 7 3 - 1 +6 +8 B- C D -2 C- C+ D
 Thu, Jan 15 294 Bellarmine W 81 - 71 80% +14  9 - 7 4 - 1 -1 +1 D+ C D -1 A+ D F
 Sat, Jan 17 170 Austin Peay W 82 - 78 58% +2  10 - 7 5 - 1 +0 +4 B- D- B+ -4 C C- B-
 Thu, Jan 22 335 Stetson W 79 - 74 OT 88% +5  11 - 7 6 - 1 -9 -12 F+ F B+ +2 C A- A-
 Fri, Jan 23 224 Florida Gulf Coast W 86 - 71 69% +5  12 - 7 7 - 1 +8 +18 A+ A C+ -8 B+ F D-
 Thu, Jan 29 297 @Jacksonville L 65 - 70 63% -8  12 - 8 7 - 2 -10 +1 D- A- A -12 F+ D+ F
 Sat, Jan 31 348 @North Florida W 100 - 94 76% -2  13 - 8 8 - 2 -3 +13 A+ F A- -16 F F C-
 Wed, Feb 4 170 @Austin Peay L 76 - 87 35% -4  13 - 9 8 - 3 -9 +4 C C B -12 F A+ C-
 Sat, Feb 7 208 Central Arkansas W 79 - 75 65%
 Wed, Feb 11 263 Eastern Kentucky W 83 - 76 75%
 Sat, Feb 14 211 @Queens L 82 - 84 44%
 Wed, Feb 18 294 @Bellarmine W 81 - 78 62%
 Sat, Feb 21 331 North Alabama W 81 - 69 88%
 Wed, Feb 25 330 @West Georgia W 80 - 74 72%
 Sat, Feb 28 263 @Eastern Kentucky W 80 - 79 54%
Totals 18 - 11 13 - 5 -2 -1 C D+ C+ -1 C C C




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic Sun Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.1 1.5 5.7 4.1 11.4 1st
2nd 0.3 4.3 16.9 12.3 2.2 35.9 2nd
3rd 0.3 3.9 14.3 10.9 0.7 30.2 3rd
4th 0.2 3.9 9.5 6.6 0.6 20.9 4th
5th 0.4 0.8 0.0 1.3 5th
6th 0.0 0.3 0.1 0.3 6th
7th 0.1 0.1 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
Total 0.1 0.9 5.1 13.7 25.3 29.8 18.8 6.4 Total



Atlantic Sun Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3 65.0% 4.1    1.8 2.2 0.1
14-4 30.6% 5.7    1.2 3.0 1.5 0.0
13-5 4.9% 1.5    0.1 0.5 0.6 0.3
12-6 0.4% 0.1    0.0 0.1 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 11.4% 11.4 3.1 5.8 2.2 0.3



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3 6.4% 29.8% 29.8% 13.5 0.1 0.8 1.0 0.1 4.5
14-4 18.8% 26.2% 26.2% 14.3 0.5 2.7 1.8 0.0 13.8
13-5 29.8% 21.3% 21.3% 14.6 0.2 2.2 3.7 0.3 23.5
12-6 25.3% 18.2% 18.2% 15.0 0.0 0.9 2.9 0.8 20.7
11-7 13.7% 15.6% 15.6% 15.3 0.1 1.2 0.8 11.6
10-8 5.1% 10.7% 10.7% 15.7 0.2 0.4 4.5
9-9 0.9% 8.9% 8.9% 15.8 0.0 0.1 0.8
8-10 0.1% 0.0 0.1
7-11
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 20.5% 20.5% 0.0% 14.6 79.5 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 1.9% 100.0% 13.5 5.8 40.0 51.6 2.6
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 1.4%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 1.9%