Lipscomb
Atlantic Sun
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating+1.2#145
Expected Predictive Rating+1.5#150
Pace75.0#49
Improvement+5.3#3

Offense
Total Offense-0.6#181
First Shot-0.5#183
After Offensive Rebound-0.2#188
Layup/Dunks+2.8#83
2 Pt Jumpshots-3.9#357
3 Pt Jumpshots+4.0#61
Freethrows-3.4#338
Improvement+2.4#35

Defense
Total Defense+1.8#114
First Shot+0.6#149
After Offensive Rebounds+1.2#89
Layups/Dunks-0.8#214
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.0#204
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.0#149
Freethrows+0.4#155
Improvement+2.9#30
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 33.6% 39.6% 32.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.0 13.5 14.2
.500 or above 95.4% 99.1% 94.6%
.500 or above in Conference 97.3% 98.8% 97.0%
Conference Champion 49.1% 57.5% 47.3%
Last Place in Conference 0.1% 0.0% 0.1%
First Four0.4% 0.1% 0.4%
First Round33.5% 39.5% 32.2%
Second Round1.9% 3.1% 1.7%
Sweet Sixteen0.3% 0.6% 0.2%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Cincinnati (Away) - 17.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 15 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 3
Quad 20 - 10 - 4
Quad 33 - 34 - 7
Quad 416 - 420 - 11


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Mon, Nov 3 9 @Vanderbilt L 61-105 3%     0 - 1 -20.8 -5.6 -12.4
  Sun, Nov 9 176 @Mercer L 77-92 47%     0 - 2 -13.1 +6.0 -19.4
  Tue, Nov 11 231 @UNC Asheville L 64-69 60%     0 - 3 -6.4 -4.4 -2.4
  Wed, Nov 19 69 @Belmont L 68-75 18%     0 - 4 +4.0 -7.2 +11.9
  Sat, Nov 22 301 Western Carolina W 83-62 86%     1 - 4 +10.4 +0.7 +8.5
  Wed, Nov 26 161 @Marshall W 90-67 43%     2 - 4 +25.9 +9.6 +13.9
  Sat, Nov 29 211 @Southeast Missouri St. W 88-77 56%     3 - 4 +10.6 +4.0 +5.3
  Wed, Dec 3 284 Tennessee Tech W 83-80 84%     4 - 4 -6.6 +0.7 -7.4
  Sun, Dec 7 293 Alabama A&M W 92-58 85%     5 - 4 +23.9 +21.9 +4.2
  Tue, Dec 16 4 @Duke L 73-97 2%     5 - 5 +0.8 +1.7 +2.8
  Mon, Dec 29 66 @Cincinnati L 68-78 17%    
  Thu, Jan 1 312 Jacksonville W 79-66 88%    
  Sat, Jan 3 350 North Florida W 92-75 94%    
  Thu, Jan 8 345 @Stetson W 80-70 82%    
  Sat, Jan 10 189 @Florida Gulf Coast L 78-79 50%    
  Thu, Jan 15 277 Bellarmine W 82-72 83%    
  Sat, Jan 17 195 Austin Peay W 76-70 72%    
  Thu, Jan 22 345 Stetson W 83-67 92%    
  Sat, Jan 24 189 Florida Gulf Coast W 81-75 71%    
  Thu, Jan 29 312 @Jacksonville W 76-69 73%    
  Sat, Jan 31 350 @North Florida W 89-78 83%    
  Thu, Feb 5 195 @Austin Peay W 73-72 51%    
  Sat, Feb 7 283 Central Arkansas W 80-69 84%    
  Wed, Feb 11 260 Eastern Kentucky W 81-71 81%    
  Sat, Feb 14 210 @Queens W 83-81 56%    
  Wed, Feb 18 277 @Bellarmine W 79-75 65%    
  Sat, Feb 21 246 North Alabama W 78-69 79%    
  Wed, Feb 25 316 @West Georgia W 79-72 74%    
  Sat, Feb 28 260 @Eastern Kentucky W 78-74 62%    
Projected Record 19 - 10 13 - 5




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic Sun Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.9 4.8 11.1 13.7 11.0 6.0 1.6 49.1 1st
2nd 0.0 0.8 4.4 8.0 5.8 2.0 0.3 21.3 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.5 3.0 5.1 2.9 0.5 0.0 11.9 3rd
4th 0.1 1.6 3.5 1.7 0.3 7.3 4th
5th 0.1 0.8 2.2 1.3 0.1 0.0 4.4 5th
6th 0.0 0.3 1.3 0.9 0.1 0.0 2.7 6th
7th 0.1 0.7 0.7 0.1 0.0 1.6 7th
8th 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.5 0.1 0.0 1.0 8th
9th 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.4 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 11th
12th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 12th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.7 1.6 3.1 5.3 8.8 12.2 15.9 17.4 15.7 11.3 6.0 1.6 Total



Atlantic Sun Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 1.6    1.6
17-1 100.0% 6.0    5.9 0.1
16-2 97.7% 11.0    10.2 0.8 0.0
15-3 87.3% 13.7    10.6 3.0 0.1
14-4 63.6% 11.1    6.0 4.2 0.8 0.0
13-5 30.0% 4.8    1.4 2.1 1.1 0.2 0.0
12-6 7.2% 0.9    0.1 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.0
11-7 0.7% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.1% 0.0    0.0
9-9 0.0%
Total 49.1% 49.1 35.8 10.5 2.4 0.4 0.1



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 1.6% 58.2% 58.2% 12.2 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.0 0.7
17-1 6.0% 54.0% 54.0% 13.0 0.0 0.7 1.7 0.7 0.1 2.8
16-2 11.3% 49.2% 49.2% 13.4 0.0 0.4 2.6 2.2 0.3 0.0 5.7
15-3 15.7% 42.7% 42.7% 13.9 0.2 1.9 3.5 1.2 0.0 9.0
14-4 17.4% 35.8% 35.8% 14.2 0.0 1.0 3.2 1.9 0.1 11.2
13-5 15.9% 30.9% 30.9% 14.5 0.0 0.4 2.1 2.2 0.2 11.0
12-6 12.2% 24.2% 24.2% 14.8 0.0 0.1 0.8 1.7 0.4 9.3
11-7 8.8% 19.9% 19.9% 15.1 0.0 0.3 1.0 0.4 7.0
10-8 5.3% 16.0% 16.0% 15.4 0.0 0.4 0.4 4.5
9-9 3.1% 10.7% 10.7% 15.6 0.1 0.2 2.8
8-10 1.6% 6.5% 6.5% 15.9 0.0 0.1 1.5
7-11 0.7% 6.0% 6.0% 16.0 0.0 0.7
6-12 0.2% 4.1% 4.1% 16.0 0.0 0.2
5-13 0.1% 11.5% 11.5% 16.0 0.0 0.1
4-14 0.0% 0.0
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 33.6% 33.6% 0.0% 14.0 0.0 0.2 1.7 8.0 12.8 9.0 1.9 66.4 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.3% 100.0% 11.5 1.3 46.8 48.1 3.8
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.1%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.1%