Miami (FL)
Atlantic Coast
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+6.2#87
Expected Predictive Rating-8.8#309
Pace66.9#239
Improvement-2.8#329

Offense
Total Offense+8.4#19
First Shot+9.5#6
After Offensive Rebound-1.1#242
Layup/Dunks+0.9#150
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.9#76
3 Pt Jumpshots+6.0#30
Freethrows+0.8#137
Improvement-1.5#291

Defense
Total Defense-2.2#246
First Shot-2.5#253
After Offensive Rebounds+0.3#161
Layups/Dunks+1.3#131
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.9#334
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.2#262
Freethrows+1.3#100
Improvement-1.4#291
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 1.9% 3.3% 1.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 1.2% 2.3% 0.5%
Average Seed 10.2 10.0 10.6
.500 or above 28.5% 42.8% 20.6%
.500 or above in Conference 39.1% 55.4% 30.2%
Conference Champion 0.3% 0.7% 0.1%
Last Place in Conference 6.1% 2.4% 8.1%
First Four0.5% 0.9% 0.3%
First Round1.7% 3.0% 1.0%
Second Round0.7% 1.3% 0.3%
Sweet Sixteen0.2% 0.3% 0.1%
Elite Eight0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
Final Four0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Clemson (Home) - 35.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a1 - 51 - 5
Quad 1b1 - 31 - 8
Quad 23 - 75 - 14
Quad 34 - 29 - 17
Quad 45 - 114 - 18


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 341   Fairleigh Dickinson W 113-72 96%     1 - 0 +26.7 +23.8 +0.4
  Nov 10, 2024 322   Binghamton W 88-64 94%     2 - 0 +12.0 +11.1 +1.5
  Nov 17, 2024 363   Coppin St. W 93-63 99%     3 - 0 +7.2 +15.9 -7.4
  Nov 21, 2024 73   Drake L 69-80 44%     3 - 1 -3.3 +10.9 -15.7
  Nov 22, 2024 81   Oklahoma St. L 74-80 49%     3 - 2 +0.6 +9.5 -9.3
  Nov 24, 2024 55   Virginia Commonwealth L 70-77 37%     3 - 3 +2.6 +10.9 -9.0
  Nov 30, 2024 276   Charleston Southern L 79-83 92%     3 - 4 -13.3 +4.1 -17.6
  Dec 03, 2024 33   Arkansas L 73-76 37%     3 - 5 +6.7 +8.5 -1.8
  Dec 07, 2024 28   Clemson L 72-76 35%    
  Dec 10, 2024 4   Tennessee L 67-81 9%    
  Dec 15, 2024 248   Presbyterian W 82-68 90%    
  Dec 21, 2024 254   Mount St. Mary's W 81-67 91%    
  Jan 01, 2025 145   @ Boston College W 76-74 59%    
  Jan 04, 2025 129   @ Virginia Tech W 75-73 56%    
  Jan 07, 2025 61   Florida St. L 78-79 50%    
  Jan 11, 2025 89   Wake Forest W 75-72 62%    
  Jan 14, 2025 2   @ Duke L 66-83 6%    
  Jan 18, 2025 62   SMU W 81-80 50%    
  Jan 22, 2025 93   @ Stanford L 76-78 41%    
  Jan 25, 2025 109   @ California L 80-81 49%    
  Jan 29, 2025 90   Virginia W 68-65 62%    
  Feb 01, 2025 80   Notre Dame W 75-73 58%    
  Feb 10, 2025 43   @ Louisville L 74-82 23%    
  Feb 11, 2025 96   Syracuse W 83-79 63%    
  Feb 15, 2025 36   @ Pittsburgh L 73-82 21%    
  Feb 19, 2025 61   @ Florida St. L 75-81 29%    
  Feb 22, 2025 129   Virginia Tech W 78-70 75%    
  Feb 25, 2025 2   Duke L 69-80 16%    
  Mar 01, 2025 17   @ North Carolina L 79-91 15%    
  Mar 04, 2025 111   @ Georgia Tech L 79-80 49%    
  Mar 08, 2025 72   North Carolina St. W 76-75 55%    
Projected Record 14 - 17 9 - 11




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic Coast Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.3 1st
2nd 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.0 1.5 2nd
3rd 0.1 0.9 1.1 0.5 0.1 0.0 2.7 3rd
4th 0.1 1.0 1.9 0.9 0.1 0.0 4.0 4th
5th 0.0 0.8 2.4 1.4 0.2 0.0 4.9 5th
6th 0.0 0.4 2.5 2.7 0.5 0.0 6.1 6th
7th 0.1 2.2 3.4 1.1 0.0 6.8 7th
8th 0.0 0.9 3.9 2.2 0.2 7.3 8th
9th 0.2 3.1 3.7 0.6 0.0 7.6 9th
10th 0.0 1.5 4.7 1.7 0.0 8.0 10th
11th 0.5 3.8 3.5 0.3 8.2 11th
12th 0.0 0.1 2.0 4.6 1.1 0.0 7.9 12th
13th 0.0 0.9 4.1 2.3 0.1 7.5 13th
14th 0.0 0.4 2.5 3.6 0.7 0.0 7.2 14th
15th 0.1 1.7 3.6 1.3 0.1 6.7 15th
16th 0.0 0.1 0.9 2.7 1.8 0.3 5.7 16th
17th 0.1 0.7 1.7 1.5 0.4 0.0 4.5 17th
18th 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.1 0.9 0.3 0.0 0.0 3.1 18th
Total 0.0 0.2 0.7 1.9 3.7 6.6 9.3 11.8 13.1 13.6 12.3 9.6 7.6 4.8 2.7 1.4 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0 Total



Atlantic Coast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1 100.0% 0.0    0.0
18-2 76.2% 0.0    0.0 0.0
17-3 56.0% 0.1    0.1 0.0 0.0
16-4 19.8% 0.1    0.0 0.1 0.0
15-5 5.9% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
14-6 0.8% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
13-7 0.0%
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 0.3% 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1 0.0% 0.0 0.0
18-2 0.0% 100.0% 9.5% 90.5% 7.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
17-3 0.2% 76.2% 6.0% 70.2% 8.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 74.7%
16-4 0.5% 54.7% 10.5% 44.2% 9.5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 49.4%
15-5 1.4% 28.1% 6.8% 21.3% 9.9 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 1.0 22.9%
14-6 2.7% 14.0% 4.5% 9.5% 10.5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.0 2.4 10.0%
13-7 4.8% 6.1% 3.1% 3.0% 10.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.0 4.5 3.1%
12-8 7.6% 2.2% 1.6% 0.6% 10.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 7.4 0.6%
11-9 9.6% 0.9% 0.8% 0.1% 11.3 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 9.5 0.1%
10-10 12.3% 0.7% 0.6% 0.0% 11.3 0.1 0.0 12.2 0.0%
9-11 13.6% 0.1% 0.1% 12.3 0.0 0.0 13.5
8-12 13.1% 0.1% 0.1% 14.4 0.0 0.0 13.1
7-13 11.8% 0.1% 0.1% 15.0 0.0 11.8
6-14 9.3% 0.0% 0.0% 15.0 0.0 9.3
5-15 6.6% 6.6
4-16 3.7% 3.7
3-17 1.9% 1.9
2-18 0.7% 0.7
1-19 0.2% 0.2
0-20 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 1.9% 0.7% 1.1% 10.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.8 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 98.1 1.2%