Miami (FL)
Atlantic Coast
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
Switch to All-time Team Page
Predictive Rating +13.4 40
Expected Predictive Rating +15.4 31
Pace 70.7 120
Improvement -2.1 271

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense B+ 47 B+ B+ C+ B- B
Defense B 36 B- B B B+ B

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 51% 1 B+ 66% 34 +11.5 2
2 Pt. Jumpers 37% 180 B- 41% 79 -0.3 195
Three Pointers 31% 350 C+ 35% 147 -5.0 328
Shot Selection/Accuracy B +1.2 35 B+ +4.7 47
1st FG Attempt B+ 1.14 36
Second Chance A- 38.6% 15 C 1.04 154 B+ 0.40 36
Turnovers C+ 15.9% 116
Freethrows B 0.35 55 D 69% 299 B- 0.24 120
Total Offense B+ +7.2 47

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 34% 306 B- 54% 72 -4.1 54
2 Pt. Jumpers 25% 60 B+ 33% 34 +0.5 226
Three Pointers 41% 169 C- 35% 212 +0.5 211
Shot Selection/Accuracy B -0.8 53 B- -2.3 86
1st FG Attempt B- 0.96 75
Second Chance A- 24.2% 17 C- 1.07 251 B 0.26 52
Turnovers B 19.3% 52
Freethrows B 0.26 42 A- 68% 16 B+ 0.17 28
Total Defense B +6.2 36

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Possession Length 15.8 41 18.4 323
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.22 61 0.11 23
Improvement +0.0 #186 -2.1 #290

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 0% 1% 0%
Top 6 Seed 9% 10% 3%
NCAA Tourney Bid 89% 91% 82%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 89% 91% 82%
Average Seed 8.4 8.2 8.9
.500 or above 100% 100% 100%
.500 or above in Conference 100% 100% 100%
Conference Champion 1% 1% 0%
Last Place in Conference 0% 0% 0%
First Four5% 3% 9%
First Round87% 90% 78%
Second Round42% 45% 34%
Sweet Sixteen9% 10% 6%
Elite Eight3% 3% 2%
Final Four1% 1% 1%
Championship Game0% 0% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%

Next Game: Virginia Tech (Home) - 76.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 9 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a2 - 52 - 5
Quad 1b3 - 15 - 6
Quad 26 - 211 - 8
Quad 34 - 115 - 9
Quad 410 - 024 - 9


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 312 Jacksonville W 86 - 69 98% +9  93% 1 - 0 B- +5 C+ +2 C A+ F B- +2 D- A C+
 Thu, Nov 6 233 Bethune-Cookman W 101 - 61 96% +20  98% 2 - 0 A+ +33 A+ +22 A+ D A+ A +10 A+ D D+
 Mon, Nov 10 328 Stetson W 102 - 61 99% +18  72% 3 - 0 A+ +27 B+ +8 A- D C A+ +15 A+ C+ B+
 Sun, Nov 16 4 Florida L 68 - 82 17% -7  5% 3 - 1 B +9 C- -1 C C- A- A +12 B- A+ B+
 Thu, Nov 20 207 Elon W 99 - 72 95% +10  99% 4 - 1 A +21 A +13 B+ A+ B B+ +7 F A A+
 Sun, Nov 23 358 Delaware St. W 97 - 41 99% +31  95% 5 - 1 A+ +37 A+ +16 A+ B- B+ A+ +21 B+ A+ A+
 Thu, Nov 27 21 BYU L 62 - 72 35% -3  37% 5 - 2 B- +7 D- -7 F B+ B A+ +14 B A+ A
 Fri, Nov 28 68 Georgetown W 78 - 65 69% +14  99% 6 - 2 A +21 A +12 A+ B F A +10 A+ F B+
 Tue, Dec 2 73 @Mississippi W 75 - 66 60% +8  86% 7 - 2 A +20 B+ +8 A+ A+ F A +12 A+ D+ B+
 Sat, Dec 6 242 Southern Miss W 88 - 64 96% +5  47% 8 - 2 A- +17 B +6 B- B+ D A- +9 B- F A+
 Sat, Dec 13 355 Louisiana Monroe W 104 - 79 99% +12  99% 9 - 2 B- +7 A+ +18 A+ B- A F+ -11 F D+ D-
 Tue, Dec 16 192 Florida International W 98 - 81 95% +6  77% 10 - 2 B+ +12 A +13 A+ B- A C- -2 C- C+ C+
 Sun, Dec 21 343 North Florida W 105 - 67 99% +18  92% 11 - 2 A +23 A- +10 A- B- D+ A +11 A D A+
 Tue, Dec 30 98 Pittsburgh W 76 - 69 85% -1  42% 12 - 2 1 - 0 B +9 B +6 F A+ B B- +4 A- C F
 Wed, Jan 7 62 @Wake Forest W 81 - 77 57% -1  32% 13 - 2 2 - 0 A- +16 A +13 C A+ B- B- +3 F A B+
 Sat, Jan 10 139 Georgia Tech W 91 - 81 91% +10  99% 14 - 2 3 - 0 B +8 A- +10 A C+ A C- -3 C B+ C+
 Tue, Jan 13 82 @Notre Dame W 81 - 69 63% +5  80% 15 - 2 4 - 0 A +22 A +13 A D+ A- A- +10 B- C- A+
 Sat, Jan 17 37 @Clemson L 59 - 69 36% -9  0% 15 - 3 4 - 1 B- +7 C- -1 C B F B+ +7 D- A+ A-
 Tue, Jan 20 86 Florida St. L 63 - 65 82% -0  40% 15 - 4 4 - 2 C +2 F -10 F+ C+ C A +12 C- A+ A
 Sat, Jan 24 64 @Syracuse W 85 - 76 57% +6  96% 16 - 4 5 - 2 A +20 A+ +16 A+ A+ F+ B +5 C+ A+ F
 Wed, Jan 28 77 Stanford W 79 - 70 80% +1  59% 17 - 4 6 - 2 B+ +14 A- +10 A- B- A+ B- +4 B- D+ A
 Sat, Jan 31 71 California L 85 - 86 78% +2  54% 17 - 5 6 - 3 C+ +4 A+ +15 A A+ A+ F+ -11 C B F+
 Sat, Feb 7 134 @Boston College W 74 - 68 80% +4  95% 18 - 5 7 - 3 B +11 B- +5 A+ D+ D- B +6 A- C F
 Tue, Feb 10 25 North Carolina W 75 - 66 53% +4  93% 19 - 5 8 - 3 A +22 B- +5 B+ C+ B+ A+ +17 A+ A+ B+
 Sat, Feb 14 29 @North Carolina St. W 77 - 76 32% -1  26% 20 - 5 9 - 3 A +19 A+ +15 C- A+ A+ B +4 C+ C+ B
 Tue, Feb 17 60 Virginia Tech W 80 - 72 77%
 Sat, Feb 21 23 @Virginia L 70 - 76 28%
 Tue, Feb 24 86 @Florida St. W 82 - 78 64%
 Sat, Feb 28 134 Boston College W 78 - 63 92%
 Wed, Mar 4 36 @SMU L 79 - 83 37%
 Sat, Mar 7 10 Louisville L 79 - 82 38%
Totals 23 - 8 12 - 6 +13 B+ +7 A+ B+ B B +6 C+ D B-



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings B+ B+ B- C+ B+ 51% 37% 31% B B+ A- C B+ C+ B D B- B B- B+ C- B- 34% 25% 41% B B- A- C- B B B A- B+
1.19 66% 41% 35% +5 +1 1.14 39% 1.0 .40 16% .35 69% .24 1.00 54% 33% 35% -2 -1 0.96 24% 1.1 .26 19% .26 68% .24
Nov
3		 Jacksonville C+ A C+ F C- 61% 11% 27% A C B A+ A+ F A+ A A+ B- F B B F+ 33% 17% 50% C- D- A+ F+ A C+ B A+ A
1.17 74% 40% 17% +3 +3 1.14 35% 2.0 .70 20% .63 78% .49 0.94 72% 33% 30% +1 0 1.04 16% 1.2 .19 19% .23 50% .12
Nov
6		 Bethune-Cookman A+ A+ C- A+ A+ 61% 14% 25% A- A+ C+ F D A+ C+ D C A A A+ A+ A+ 34% 25% 42% B A+ D+ D D D+ C C C
1.40 72% 38% 47% +13 +3 1.34 33% 0.9 .30 8% .33 68% .23 0.84 44% 23% 18% -18 -1 0.64 31% 1.1 .33 17% .32 68% .22
Nov
10		 Stetson B+ B+ A+ B- B+ 52% 12% 37% A- A- C F+ D C A+ D A A+ F A+ A A+ 20% 29% 51% A+ A+ A- F C+ B+ F A+ D-
1.29 71% 57% 36% +10 +2 1.27 32% 1.0 .32 15% .39 69% .27 0.77 70% 7% 27% -12 -2 0.73 19% 1.3 .24 22% .42 58% .24
Nov
16		 Florida C- F F A+ D+ 55% 26% 19% A C A F C- A- A+ F B A B- F B- B 43% 6% 51% C- B- A+ B+ A+ B+ F A- D-
0.89 41% 27% 45% -9 +1 0.84 31% 0.4 .12 13% .40 56% .22 1.07 59% 67% 31% 0 +2 1.06 31% 0.9 .28 18% .46 66% .30
Nov
20		 Elon A A- C- A B+ 44% 20% 35% C+ B+ A+ B+ A+ B A- C- B+ B+ D+ B- F F 46% 13% 41% C+ F A+ F A A+ C- A+ B
1.35 67% 36% 42% +8 0 1.19 47% 1.3 .59 14% .36 70% .25 0.98 62% 33% 47% +9 +1 1.24 18% 1.2 .21 25% .33 56% .18
Nov
23		 Delaware St. A+ A+ F A+ A+ 45% 15% 40% C+ A+ B+ D+ B- B+ C- F D- A+ A A B B+ 33% 36% 31% C+ B+ C- A+ A+ A+ D+ A+ B-
1.37 84% 25% 45% +17 +1 1.38 38% 1.1 .41 16% .32 58% .18 0.58 40% 25% 29% -13 -2 0.71 25% 0.1 .02 27% .33 53% .17
Nov
27		 BYU D- F C+ F F 51% 15% 34% A+ F B B- B+ B B F D- A+ A+ B F B+ 43% 23% 34% D+ B A+ A A+ A D+ A+ C+
0.90 41% 38% 17% -18 +2 0.70 31% 1.2 .38 15% .29 41% .12 1.05 45% 36% 50% +2 0 1.06 27% 1.0 .27 19% .36 65% .23
Nov
28		 Georgetown A D A+ A+ A+ 56% 22% 22% A A+ B+ C B F B- B- B A B- A+ A+ A+ 33% 22% 46% C+ A+ F F F B+ F A D
1.20 48% 90% 60% +15 +1 1.33 36% 1.0 .36 23% .32 75% .24 1.00 53% 10% 24% -15 -1 0.72 40% 1.4 .55 17% .44 67% .30
Dec
2		 Mississippi B+ C- B- A+ A+ 44% 12% 44% A A+ A+ C A+ F C- D+ C- A A+ A+ D A+ 16% 40% 44% A A+ C- D+ D+ B+ A+ F A
1.12 53% 40% 47% +7 +2 1.19 50% 1.1 .53 28% .31 67% .21 0.98 33% 23% 38% -8 -4 0.78 32% 1.1 .36 16% .20 82% .16
Dec
6		 Southern Miss B A D- B- B- 45% 24% 31% C B- A+ F B+ D B+ B- B+ A- C A- A+ B 41% 30% 28% C- B- F+ F F A+ C+ A B
1.19 70% 33% 38% +6 0 1.14 47% 0.8 .37 19% .40 71% .28 0.87 58% 29% 23% -8 -1 0.85 36% 1.3 .45 27% .35 68% .24
Dec
13		 Louisiana Monroe A+ A- A- A+ A 59% 3% 38% A+ A+ A D- B- A B- F D+ F+ B- A+ F F 29% 18% 54% C F C+ F D+ D- A A+ A+
1.47 71% 50% 45% +14 +4 1.38 47% 1.0 .47 11% .27 53% .14 1.11 50% 20% 47% +5 0 1.11 23% 1.2 .28 14% .23 57% .13
Dec
16		 Florida International A A+ A+ D A+ 55% 9% 36% A A+ A D B- A A+ C- A+ C- D- F A+ D+ 43% 26% 30% B C- D+ B+ C+ C+ D+ C+ C-
1.29 74% 80% 30% +11 +3 1.29 44% 0.9 .41 16% .49 71% .34 1.07 65% 50% 25% +2 0 1.06 35% 0.9 .32 18% .34 67% .23
Dec
21		 North Florida A- A A+ D- A 47% 16% 36% C+ A- A+ F B- D+ A+ C- A+ A A A+ C A+ 27% 14% 59% B A B F D A+ F+ F F
1.40 73% 78% 30% +11 +1 1.27 50% 1.0 .50 13% .44 69% .31 0.89 46% 0% 34% -8 0 0.86 22% 1.5 .33 27% .29 88% .25
Dec
30		 Pittsburgh B B+ A- F F 38% 24% 38% D+ F A+ B+ A+ B A+ C+ A+ B- D D+ A+ B+ 32% 26% 42% A A- A+ F C F C A+ B+
1.15 65% 45% 12% -8 -1 0.84 43% 1.1 .46 15% .46 77% .36 1.04 65% 43% 23% -4 -1 0.92 22% 1.6 .36 11% .29 53% .15
Jan
7		 Wake Forest A A+ B+ F C 49% 16% 36% B+ C A+ A+ A+ B- A+ B- A+ B- A+ F F F 27% 31% 41% A+ F A+ F A B+ A- B+ A
1.18 73% 43% 13% -4 +1 0.98 45% 1.3 .59 19% .54 77% .41 1.12 36% 63% 52% +13 -2 1.24 14% 1.8 .25 18% .25 71% .18
Jan
10		 Georgia Tech A- A+ F B+ A 35% 19% 46% B- A D A+ C+ A A+ D- A+ C- D- C F D+ 31% 45% 24% A+ C A- C B+ C+ F F F
1.22 78% 20% 38% +6 0 1.13 25% 1.4 .34 11% .48 66% .32 1.09 67% 36% 42% +5 -4 1.04 26% 1.1 .29 19% .45 85% .38
Jan
13		 Notre Dame A A+ A+ D A 37% 24% 39% C A C+ F D+ A- A- A- A A- B- F B C+ 28% 28% 44% B+ B- D B- C- A+ D B D+
1.20 74% 50% 30% +6 0 1.14 26% 0.8 .19 12% .35 81% .28 1.02 58% 58% 32% +4 -2 1.07 38% 0.9 .34 27% .36 67% .24
Jan
17		 Clemson C- B- F D- C 36% 19% 45% B C A C- B F C+ B B- B+ B F F D- 51% 15% 34% D+ D- A+ B- A+ A- A+ B A+
0.91 59% 22% 29% -6 0 0.89 31% 0.9 .29 25% .29 79% .23 1.07 54% 57% 50% +9 +2 1.23 15% 1.0 .15 19% .19 70% .13
Jan
20		 Florida St. F C+ F F F 49% 24% 27% B- F+ D A+ C+ C C C+ C A B- F D- D+ 41% 27% 33% A C- A+ A+ A+ A B- C- B-
0.91 58% 17% 23% -9 0 0.84 26% 1.2 .31 20% .27 73% .20 0.94 55% 46% 38% +3 -1 1.06 13% 0.5 .07 19% .27 73% .20
Jan
24		 Syracuse A+ A- A A+ A+ 57% 19% 23% B+ A+ B- A+ A+ F+ C- A- C+ B B- F C+ C 43% 25% 32% B C+ A+ A A+ F A+ C A
1.23 63% 44% 55% +11 +2 1.28 33% 1.6 .54 23% .28 80% .23 1.10 58% 57% 33% +5 0 1.11 15% 0.8 .12 9% .24 67% .16
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Jan
28		 Stanford A- B C+ A A- 51% 28% 21% B- A- A+ F B- A+ A+ F A B- A+ A+ F B- 41% 16% 43% B B- C D D+ A A+ A+ A+
1.18 63% 38% 40% +4 0 1.11 47% 0.7 .34 13% .54 61% .33 1.05 43% 25% 45% -1 +1 1.02 35% 1.1 .38 21% .19 50% .09
Jan
31		 California A+ A+ D+ D- A+ 44% 31% 24% D A D+ A+ A+ A+ A+ B+ A+ F+ F A+ F+ C- 26% 30% 44% A- C A- D+ B F+ F B- F
1.26 75% 36% 27% +4 -1 1.09 25% 2.1 .54 10% .55 70% .38 1.28 77% 27% 41% +6 -2 1.10 22% 1.1 .25 10% .53 75% .40
Feb
7		 Boston College B- B+ D+ B A 58% 13% 29% A+ A+ C D- D+ D- A+ F B+ B B- A B B+ 25% 29% 46% A- A- A+ F C F A+ D A
1.06 64% 33% 36% +4 +2 1.15 27% 0.8 .21 19% .44 52% .23 0.97 53% 29% 30% -7 -2 0.85 18% 1.7 .30 10% .16 70% .11
Feb
10		 North Carolina B- A+ D+ D- A- 44% 37% 19% C B+ B+ D- C+ B+ A+ F A+ A+ B A B A+ 32% 25% 44% A- A+ A+ B+ A+ B+ A+ F A+
1.08 70% 32% 30% +2 -2 1.02 32% 0.8 .24 12% .37 61% .23 0.95 56% 29% 32% -4 -1 0.91 24% 1.0 .24 16% .17 80% .14
Feb
14		 North Carolina St. A+ B- D+ F D+ 61% 18% 22% B+ C- A+ B A+ A+ B+ F D+ B C+ F+ D C+ 35% 18% 47% B C+ C+ C C+ B B F C+
1.19 58% 33% 18% -6 +2 0.94 49% 1.1 .54 14% .36 50% .18 1.17 59% 44% 39% +5 0 1.12 29% 1.3 .36 15% .27 87% .24



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic Coast Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.2 0.4 0.7 1st
2nd 0.1 4.2 9.4 1.9 15.5 2nd
3rd 0.0 2.2 15.3 3.5 21.0 3rd
4th 0.5 14.0 9.3 0.2 24.0 4th
5th 0.1 4.8 13.5 0.7 19.0 5th
6th 0.9 9.3 2.8 0.0 13.0 6th
7th 0.0 2.0 3.1 0.0 5.2 7th
8th 0.2 1.2 0.1 1.6 8th
9th 0.1 0.0 0.1 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
13th 13th
14th 14th
15th 15th
16th 16th
17th 17th
18th 18th
Total 0.3 4.2 17.9 32.6 29.4 13.3 2.4 Total



Atlantic Coast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3 18.5% 0.4    0.1 0.3 0.1 0.0
14-4 1.8% 0.2    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0
13-5 0.0%
12-6 0.0%
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.7% 0.7 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3 2.4% 100.0% 6.9% 93.1% 5.8 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.6 0.7 0.6 0.1 100.0%
14-4 13.3% 98.9% 5.6% 93.3% 7.0 0.0 0.1 1.0 3.0 5.0 3.1 0.8 0.1 0.2 98.8%
13-5 29.4% 95.7% 4.0% 91.6% 8.0 0.0 0.4 2.0 6.5 9.9 7.2 2.1 0.2 1.3 95.5%
12-6 32.6% 89.0% 2.4% 86.6% 8.9 0.0 0.5 2.4 7.2 10.2 7.2 1.5 3.6 88.7%
11-7 17.9% 78.1% 1.5% 76.6% 9.6 0.0 0.0 0.3 1.7 4.1 5.2 2.6 3.9 77.8%
10-8 4.2% 59.5% 1.2% 58.4% 10.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.9 1.0 1.7 59.1%
9-9 0.3% 36.8% 36.8% 10.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 36.8%
8-10
7-11
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 89.2% 3.2% 86.0% 8.4 10.8 88.8%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.2% 100.0% 3.8 6.1 15.2 69.7 9.1
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.5% 100.0% 5.2 3.2 18.3 43.0 28.0 7.5
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.7% 100.0% 5.9 5.7 32.1 35.0 24.3 2.9
Lose Out 0.1% 15.4% 11.0 15.4